Member Info for Ibiza28

He might be but i am not worried his political leanings (nothing to do with me) I am interested in the knowledge he has

I cannot see this share price moving till the over hang is exhausted. A number of people starting to get cold feet and selling up. It is going to be interesting how the announcements are made. Looks as SC3 is going to be March/April so this issue now must have been for a reason. Maybe it just helps tighten things up prior to a deal.. I still go with my theory:

1) RNS suspending shares

2 RNS ITR update

3) CNG/LNG deal.

4) Divestment of same part of area

5) The big one of Mou-5

Keith called it some time ago when he described PG as playing hydrocarbon chess. I reckon this was a very aggressive opening move/gambit. And probably not totally expected.

We are not at end of January yet and i still think end of Feb / March is more likely although i would a bit earlier.

The reality nothing has changed really expeot this pitch is now longer. And i think the game will now go on longer. If PG had felt that deal was close he would have waited but obviously it hass not and maybe it is changing to a JV or a farm in. My reckong back end of February now. And i doubt if the ITR report is that imminent.

Possibly but there were still millions more buys to sell. Most will come back in abTuesday and rinse tepeat.

Anybody considered that 31st Jan is also tax payment day.

Figures are showing 1m more buys to sells and we drop 7%. Really and are are not being played.

I am wondering if this is part of the over all reaction to the idea the EU is going to bring out the big guns trading wise against DT. In some respects a bit surprised it had nto happened earlier. My reckoning is something has really spooked this share either something has leaked we are not going to like ie a raise or this is outside forces at play. My money is on the latter.

I do not think there will be a suspension just yet. I think PG wants to make sure that there is not just one announcement but maybe two in rapid suspension i think that is at least a few weeks off yet. The only thing to tip it is there was some suspicious buys going on. And i am sure the Company Secretaries office he has just appointed (name slips me for now) will be scouring the buys to look out for anything funny. If they spot that then yes if not it will carry on as just people buying in on the rumour.

Suspension will come at point of a leak or at point of agreements about to be signed. I would to think that PG is hoping to blast this share almost into hyper space in one fell movement. If he pulls it off it will be amazing GLA

When i could not sleep much longer in the early morning i went back to the last presentation that PG gave. And i must admit i had rather dismissed Mou-3 after all we were only showing 64bcf 1c and 83bcf 2c. Hardly something to get excited about and talk then was this might get to 20p a share on DCF i think it was at 10%. That was 2024 and has not been updated.

I wonder why. Part of me thinks this is deliberate. PG knows what he has got and has been i think very possibly slow playing his hand. But at the last presentation he suddenly raised that quite a bit.

I am not quoting this verbatim but he indicates that this was just over 16.5 Sq KM and Nu- Tech were re-evaluating this over the full 81 Sq KM that is possibly another 4 x what we are showing. Plus it was showing 1.9% of He. If this is right and our gas jumps from 83bcf 2c to somewhere around 300bcf and 1.9%He. then Mou-3 starts to move off the charts.

Even more reason to think that ITR will come out if either the talks break down or immediately before the signing of a deal. How close this is is any ones guess. Personally i think the SP will move on significantly over the next week. Possibly hit 6p and maybe more. Two reasons for this thinking as we cross over into new territory (not trod for a long time anyway) the shares held will be fewer and fewer and there will be more buyers coming in. those on the eye of the investor rather the gambler that be honest many of us here are. I would however say it is an educated gamble. Positions are now being taken for the big prize. but you have to be in it to win it.

I am not sure at which level the trading houses start to run out of shares in this company to sell but i have a feeling it cannot be too far away and at that point i would expect the share price between bid and offer to tighten and the price to increase rapidly.

Add that to what could a staggering uptick from Nu-Tech re Mou-3 and this share could do even more than a lot thought. Myself included.

I still think we have a few weeks to wait. I think this could be pretty big and you do not do that size of deal overnight.

This precisely what PG will be looking out for and why suspension could come at any time. If these talks are progressing then the longer thet go on the harder they will be t keep secret.

So Swizz you think this talk of a 6 month divestment window is just talk. There is no buyer for Mou 5 and that Mou 3 will only sell for 20m ie less than the current MC right now. And all of this over the next 18 months. Not saying you will be wrong but i seriously hope you are. My thinking is by end of June we will have a far better idea as to what the sP will be.

Thank you and i have no pretensions of being a Cassandra.

At the moment i think this is a bit too soon. I just think this is just a number of random people taking a position. But i am sure Paul and new Company Secretaries are watching the share register like hawk for share patterns or names of people who might know and that might trigger something earlier than might be expected.

It is possible that this share could well exceed many people's expectations. I have my idea as to what this may become but i am not going to say it on here and hold myself up to ridicule if it ends up like a wet roman candle on fireworks night. But it does involve multiples of the current share price. GLA

All these trolls are making it sound as if Mou 6 would be really expensive to drill. I do not think it will be i think has given the figures the difficult part would be getting the mud weighting right at each level of the drill as i understand not the cost of the drilling.

Any way there is one i think to getting the money that has escaped a lot of people and that is Trinidad. And no i am not talking about it coming from the current production figures. We could borrow on the basis of the reserves we have out there for a short period. Mou 6 flows and it will then any borrowing will be moot and irrelevant. reserve base lending is much cheaper i believe than other lending in this sector would be because it is based on known fact and our ability to extract that and very shortly with Snow Leopard that will become even more significant.

Quite frankly why am i writing this. We will only drill Mou 6 if talks breakdown and i would be very surprised if they do and not just the Mou 3 talks but also the Mou 5 talks. If they both break down then I think we will have a lot whole more to worry about than funding Mou 6. One other thing i would disagree with is whether this will be a farm in. Personally i do not think so. Listening to PG in that last presentation he was now not thinking of that. It might have been his thinking once but now realizes it is probably time for Predator to exit Morrocco. He has done as much as he can. Now leave it to one of the big boys to do the heavy lifting after this. Residuals very possibly but a partnership or JV the answer is unlikely. IMO

No just recently he was ramping this share like mad. I suggested that he was looking to make a quick buck and get out. Maybe he has but annoyed it is still going up and may miss out on Monday morning.

Problem is it was not subtle it was a sledgehammer approach to share trading.

Got cut off by my computer

1) Paul will suspend the shares probably on a Friday evening for 4/5 days,

2) Monday morning we the ITR/CPR on Nu Tech uplift to our resources

3) Tuesday morning we will news of divestment of Mou 3 etc to AG/Vivo for local CNG / LNG project

4) Wednesday or the Thursday morning we will get the big one Mou 5 sell off (probably with residuals)

then PG will release the suspension and this share will go from 4.5p to whatever this price is almost immediately.

So PG at the first sign of any major buys or a concerted effort by one group who he thinks has an inside link he will suspend this share. Knowledge is a bit like gas it has tendency to leak.

Paul soon (not a the moment) will be watching the share trades like a hawk. Thing will happen in fairly rapid succession i reckon and will like waiting for a London bus except this time it will be a Moroccan bus and three at a time.

Timescale (my opinion)

Could be as early at middle of February.

1)

Yes i know the "Trolls they are a multiplying". What is worst one seems to have found the LIGHT on the road to Morocco and Guercif. Now looking to ramp the share he pulled down for ages. Obviously looking for a quick exit before he knocks it back down again to start all over again.

A little while ago i started to try and work out what this might come to per share using 850m shares as a base.

I started by using the 2P reserves as indicated on our website. Normally i would mark these down by a percentage but as there is a good chance these might rise substantially with Nu-tech report. I just included these numbers and no more. I then put in the wholesale price for Gas and Helium. I then used 10% of these figures for estimate of our sales value. And i then added on amount for oil. The value was ridiculous. So i cut out the oil. It was still ridiculous so I then took 25% (not 25% off but 25%) of that total Finally i came out at a level that i thought would be very acceptable at he moment and letu us just say it would still around 100 banger from here.

As GRH would say you were only meant to blow the b*****y doors off. Well it is possible it will not but just the doors the whole building as well. This could be so big it cannot be handled easily and that would be counter productive. IMO

The same comes from all the very best from this end.