The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Lottery ticket
The problem is there are now 25.2bn lottery tickets out there. Even this does come in it is being well diluted. If this does come in and prove up the oil what do we expect the market cap to be. If it moves to 1p that would be a market cap of £252m. What chance of this being sold to a major in excess of £0.25m. i should imagine the extraction costs and the infrastructure costs would bring the eventual selling price right down.
Yes i would tend to agree on first reading i thought that is it we have set a light to the touch paper and now watch the SP move but on closer inspection I think that this is just the beginning of the end. 3-6 months but i notice with interest that this time MB does not hold back on who the troublesome party is so i am assuming he has been given some kind of green light to go on the offensive which to me means that if he does not act soon the government will finally step in and take control. When that happens this SP will shift rapidly. Shares will drop back tomorrow.but if you are out and want to stay out fine but if you are out and want to be in for all the action that could be at anytime in the next month or so. Also i wonder if interesting it came on 1st of the month.
I do not know enough about the Irish asset as i have been mainly focused on Morocco but if the Irish government are serious I would have thought that, if you had a choice between Europa and Us; you would choose us as Europa have been struggling to find a partner for the last 5 years and maybe even longer or us who have someone very interested who has come to us rather than us go to them. From this chair it looks a bit of a no brainer but then i am biased. GLA
Mossma you are absolutely right i think as this was i believe the thinking behind Barnes Wallis's bouncing bomb to use the pressure of the water on the otherside to help with the fracture. I have no idea what the PSI that would have takeon from all that water but should imagine it would along the same principle.
I am expecting the next RNS within the week possibly as early as Tuesday. This one very clearly points at where the hold up and although does not say as much directly it would suggest to me he has been holding out for the brown paper bag and who every suggested PC coffed up for it then i think they are right.
This will be sorted out quickly and we will all move forward in time for the new season.
I have been wondering why this presentation and why now. So i thought i would and sum up where we are and then work out why now. These presentations cost money not just in Paul & Lonny showing up in London but also payment to Proactive who i am sure are not doing this out of the goodness of their heart.
Morocco: We have tested by perforated guns and proven up the formation damage. The next testing in not likely to start before of March/ beginning of April according to RNS's and is fully financed (this has been repeated several times from what i can see). There does not seem to be anything new here to say but would be nice to get a complete summary of what we expect to find and prove up when we do get round to testing. There is no where that i have found in the RNS's or presentations does it give an up to date estimate of resources because it appears that everytime they turned over a rock out emerged even more gas. Would be nice to get a picture of it all. Summary of what we know and summary of what we believe might be there, I seen rought idea of field sizes and they do seem enormous. Other than this everything else could be covered by RNS i think.
Trinidad
Again i do not think there is anything startling here that could not easily be put on an RNS. I think T&T will continue to do what it says on the tin. I believe this could be a very significant purchase and possibly a big bargain. Trinidads job is not to provide the massive movement in the share price, that will or should come from Morocco, T&T's job is make sure it pays its own plus make acontribution to the running of the business leaving the money raised in the RNS to do solely the job stated in the RNS maybe a bit of additional support. Nothing startling yet that may come later when time can be properly devoted to it. Again nothing that can not be put in an RNS.
Ireland
So we come to Ireland and this is where i think the real reason for this presentation lies. PG indicated that he was expecting news i believe before end of March ie 1st quarter what is likely to happen with our Carrib assets and maybe he has heard that a decision is impending. Remember that if this comes through it would i believe completely de-risk this share for every long term holder awaiting on the results of Morocco. Now that is and would be news worth shouting about. So whilst all the other assets in our portfolio will be discussed this is the one that could just the major news story which would either come out before hand or he will intimate that is about to happen. But remember No RNS before presentation No announcement at the presentation. I am hoping this is the news that will completely de risk this share or knowing it will completely de-risk share before the testing. GLA
If the next placing is likely to be a higher price which is what i think is being suggested would it not be a Rights issue for current investors rather than for the wider public and the unsold share would then go out to the public.
Just asking and my thinking would be fair as it would mean at a higher price that we had a find.
My thinking is that if there is if no news before the 14th then the presentation will be just another sales pitch. I would have thought that any price sensitive information would have to RNS'd ahead of time. Hopefully two bits of news one for Morocco and sandjet testing and the other regarding Ireland. either on morning of or in run up to time if not then the presentation will be just about CM and the hope/hype around CM and the rest will be whitewashed over.
CCC
I really feel for you and yes i think you have every right to be aggrieved at our system that seems want to make those most in need seem like criminals.. I really hope your wife qualifies for transplant and on top of that we hit gas in big numbers so that you do not have to worry financially. Good Luck
AV "Test was unsuccessful"
On the contrary the test was successful it proved what they expected and probably gave them the result they needed. Ax i have said before sometimes it is necessary to prove a negative if it gives more complete data.and i think this is one of those times.
I really cannot see Morocco and ONHYM wanting to do this on their own and cut PRD out of the picture. Yes looks great if they succeed but if they fail who is going to pick up the cost cannot see governments being too popular with this.
Being slightly ignorant but if they did they would be doing it in the dark. The seismic and all the drill data would be with PRD they are hardly likely to share that if they thought the ground benefit their feet was quick sand.
By the way Exploration News are reporting that: " Phase 1 testing with perforating guns has confirmed formation (not found) and phase 2 with Sandjet testing will proceed with design parameters modified to take into account the depth of that damage.
The company says it is confident that Sandjet will achieve its objective to establish gas flow and analysis of ga samples confirmed up to 99.57% methane suitable for CNG development. Mou-5 jurassic well planning is on track and the company says there is no change to the available discretionary working capital to carry out the sandjet testing programme".
I accept this is probably the news release from the company but re written properly as we know the company RNS's are so badly written it beggers relief. Therefore IMHO that share drop is over re-action.
On having another look at the RNS's I think it is unlikely we will hear anything from Paul until the start of the sandjet testing (and maybe not even then). Last RNS said RNS would start February/March well we are coming up to end of Feb and March will start soon. Does not say when in March just says March and will take about 14 days,
The results of the damaged casing i think was known and the test was to confirm the damage and hopefully how badly damaged. I would hope that by now if it was irrecoverably damaged we would have heard by now.
If it is ok drilling will i think go ahead as soon as they can and are allowed to.and we will hear in due course. Just a little more patience and we will be there. And just remember there is always the chance that we can play our Irish Super Sub.