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As i see it this will almost certainly get farmed out the question is how much bargaining power do we have to get a good deal.
We have found a large amount of oil
It does flow at a good rate
It is of a good quality.
On the negative side.
We have 25bn shares in issue which is to put it politely a lot. A Hell of a lot
We are diluted to the hilt and therefore little or no room to move regarding raising further funds. at least through the SH (IMO) only alternative would be some kind of RBL.
So farm out or sell on but i do think that the current SP and market cap at 65m is a steal for what we have. I am assuming (hoping ) the CoP will come in at some point. What is the current price for 3P STOIIP at the moment in Alaska. That would give you an idea as to whether or not a $1bn dollars would be around 3p a share. Seems a long way away but it is possible. That would be 10 times current price and well worth a punt i reckon.
Keith
As a matter of interest why do you think they would hang on to the results until all in together. Surely this is price sensitive information and whichever way we should be told as soon as it is known. I have a feeling it would be almost impossible to keep this quiet for a few weeks word is almost bound to get out and either a lot of buying or selling will accrue and be insider information.
Yes agreed a really good discussion and a lot of diverse views which i think is healthy and a lot of different opinions. We by my estimate about 10 days away from drilling with Sandjet. I am assuming that we can use the same hole that we went down last time and that should save sometime but do we need to a have a completely different angle of attack and therefore need a new hole. The time will be taken i assume in finding the weakest or most appropriate point in the damage. rock. Also would we know the result immediately or do we need to send anything away for analysis. I assume if we get through we can measure the flow while we are down there. So would we know before the the end of the month or that too ridiculous a timetable. ie SJ down the same hole. a probably a day and bit. a day or so finding exactly the right place to point the gun and then shoot as much as needed to get through. Hopefully the gas is pressing to get out at the other side so as soon as a weak point appears we would need to scale down to avoid a major spill out
Thanks Keith that does help to clarify a lot but I am a bit confused why we are going to drill a well that only has a 12% chance of success. I would have thought drill one with a far higher chance and use that to sell on for the CNG gas or is there only this field for that. Either i do not know or cannot remember. Also i do not seem to remember the odds being so low. I always thought they were meant to be higher seeing that we know the gas is there. What we do not know from i can gather is how much and the flow rate.
Maybe just maybe this is it. I get the feeling that something has been let out in the open because a arise like this from pretty well no where is very unusual a 14% rise in the day and there were a very large number of sales coming in during the last half an hour. GLA
I will happily send my congrats to Paul and Lonny once we have found what we think is there and it is flowing but until then it is just words on paper.
Yes i believe it is there and that we will get to it but being a boring old accountant i would want to go for the one that gives us the quickest route to cash and that is the CNG to AG and raise the first sale on to them. Use the cash to refund to shareholders and retain a chuck to drill the next umpteen million wells they want to drill. Personally i want something more tangible out of this share than just words as soon as possible.
I was rather hoping that Ireland might turn up something against all the odds but I now think that is very unlikely unless there is change in Ryan or a change of minister. Cannot see either at the moment.
Tend to agree 12% odds seems very poor and also why go for this high risk or seemingly high risk strategy first. I just feel there is something here we are missing because at the moment this is not stacking up correctly for me. I always thought our odds of success were a lot higher than just 12%.
Lay off WOS one thing at a time. Let us get this B*****y LP from this dodgy provincial leader and then you cal talk about how fast this SP will rise. No one is buying it any more and dare i say it but very few are buying this share.at the moment.
MB has to make something happen before presentation as he cannot do it at the presentation as it would be price sensitive and therefore after presentation this share will tank. It will happen it is just a question of when and at what cost to PM. those are the unknown ponderables. One he can cover at meeting ie finances the other he can infer to but cannot say anything directly unless RNS comes that morning.
I think this could work very nicely in our favour. What politicians need most of all is to have an escape route and because of the change in PM, Ryan now has one and can blame it all on the new PM. The fact that he himself ha overseen this mess will get swept under the carpet. Personally i do not care how he manages it as long as we get our day in the sun at long last. GLA
I would tend to agree unless we get a RNS in next couple of days then this will not go anywhere until after the General Election. No politician likes to go against the will of the people when there is a vote in the offing. If nothing soon this could well wait till after the Mongolian summer holidays and not till September this year.
I think there is something in the air at the moment. I am getting that feeling this rise is a lot more than just a bit of hype or recognition that this is a much undervalued asset. This is a lot more than just Bed and ISA ing . If this is happening now imagine what this is likely to look like when Monday comes and the new tax year.
I think (if it comes up) that what PG does with Ireland will very much depend on what he sees happening in Morocco and also West Africa. He may want the bird in the bush rather than keep the stub equity so to speak in Ireland. Mind you if the deal is good and the unique situation vis a vi transport and storage pipeline may have significant value he may be able do both. Get a price that gives us an almost immediate ROI plus keep cash aside for all work in Morocco, West Africa and Trimidad and retain some stub equity. But at the moment i am not holding my breath over it all i am seeing are flying pigs but you never know one may just start flying.
Borrowing might become an issue but we have no idea what SunSteepe might be bringing in yet. It might be nothing but i might also be enough just to pay running cost bills.. Who knows i know i do not so do not just assume the worst.
Fair enough question if you ask this of all your invested companies. So would you ask it of Boeing or Virgin and what do you know of there ability to manage in these situations. Personally i reckon Lonnie would take over now as to his qualities i could not tell you nor do i know who would take over if Lonnie were to die of shock on hearing the news that PG had passed away. Get real this is a penny AIMS stock not a Blue Chip AAA Ftse 100 company. If you do not like do not invest.
Very interesting but will it come to anything. One has a feeling this could be yet another meeting that is going to be hijacked/sidetracked by PC incompetence.
Yeserday WOS discussed idea of PC buying out PM. i wonder would Govt allow such a transaction seeing as it would leave country to a whole bunch of cowboys. Slightly tongue in cheek would we be asked to buy out PC share in Mongolia. Now that would be turn up for the books.
I do not think bad news on Ireland will cripple the SP as i do not think it has been factored in. If PG had up played the chances at presentation which he did not then possibly. Our SP now i think not far off what 100% of Trinidad is.