Member Info for Ibiza28

Let us try and look at this from the other end.

ADNOC are planning a total investment in the order of $55bn that is a hell of lot of money to be spending on an over all project. A lot of that is infrastructure and some of will hopefully be us.

If you were spending $55bn you would want to sure that the returns from your project were going to justify this over the ages. If you think PG has not worked with out working backwards as well as forwards I would be very surprised.

You do not bring in an agent to help negotiate for peanuts.

If it were peanuts i think it would have been settled some time ago as i would want to try and take advantage of this window (Trump has the world in turmoil) knowing it would take time to get things really moving. The longer you have the quicker you can get productive. Summary small deals would have been concluded some while ago. Bigger deals take longer, Really big deals take even longer.

As has been mentioned maybe just maybe Mou 3 pressure has built up so as to know it will Flow.

Mou 6 - Now no longer Mou 6

Mou 6 no longer is same spot.

Mou 6 going deeper means it has a different objective and target.

Seems that getting Mou 6 to flow is not the traget. Trying to prove up deeper reservoirs is.

Summary

No JV mentioned.

Total divestment mentioned.

Agents to negotiate

Mou 6 not just changed name but also changing by looks of strategic objective.

Time of news well past a six month window.

I am cautiously begging to revise my figure.

Rob are you down the bournmouth way same as me although i support a team about to be relegated in spurs.

ADNOC Board Meeting

Assuming this is going sign off on the Predator deal. Not certain but it could be part of that meeting. Must admit i do not know if there is a meeting on Monday as indicated.

Assuming there is. The question i ask is why. Why raise this at a board meeting.

After all ADNOC are a MAJOR oil and Gas producing company. They would buy and sell oil and gas fields all the time. If they had a board meeting for every deal i would be surprised.

Conclusion this would only be going to the board if this was far bigger than anyone originally thought. ADNOC includded.

So maybe just MAYBE this is bigger than some of us on here think.

This is very close i think. There just seem to be too many stories coming out on different platforms as to make there is a leak

As I say it might be that much of that report was written long before events and that presentation and he saw no need to revise it. I just find it depressing that almost every time Paul issues a statement of almost any sort the share drop sharply.

What i absolutely sure of that was an RNS that he did not want to put out right now hence the fact it was done at the last possible minute. It would be good ( i think) if he were able to find his way to doing another presentation to smooth over the waters he has disturbed with this pebble. It will take a few days to recover from this. But we will climb back up. As always this share it a metre forward and a yard backwards and sometimes the other way round.

I am beginning to think the talks have stalled if not actually broken down. The tone of that RNS was far more on continuing operations in Morocco rather than a full divestment.

Mind you it is also possible that the bulk of this Financial Report was written long before that presentation was made. I always felt there was a touch of someone spending the money before he got it in the way he spoke about opportunities in Africa. I have a feeling this is going to be a small divestment and we push on to Mou-5 in our own time.

Also dare i say i am not convinced that we are as fully funded as Paul might like. Really hope i am wrong but beware the CEO in this business who keeps on saying we are fully funded.

Someone in the negotiations is pushing back harder at Paul than he might like.

Donalb can you get behind the subscription wall, There is an article there about Looking for hydrcarbons in the wrong place. May be interesting.

I have been reviewing the Morocco news article that Donalb posted last Saturday i think it was ie 9 days ago or so. Because the numbers were so small i think may have passed by a lot of people. The numbers are in BCM as they do not deal is cubic feet.

The article mentions 1.7 BCM which when multiplied up comes close to the 64BCF that is mentioned in the companies web pages as being C1 figures. But it goes on to say they hope to prove up to 12BCM. Easy not to get excited by this but the equates to 421 BCF now even if that now includes the C2 figures as well. If i am right then this is far more than the 50% uptick that some people thought or even i did when i optimistically called out 300, It looks as the Nu Tech numbers for Mou 3 are going to be significant. So just working on 400 BCF at 5$ MCF that is $2Bn at 7.5$ that is 3BN and if you really want to wild at 12 it is nearly $5bn. That is just for starters. This could be far bigger than i thought.

I am not convinced there will be news tomorrow. Almost any valuation of a decent size would mean suspending the share first of all and unless he suspends tomorrow morning knowing that ONHYM are concluding their review then unlikely we get anything. Once we are suspended then i think the news will come thick and fast.

The speed of it will depend on how much h reckons we can digest in one go.

AI can only give you an analysis of what has been published. It cannot report on what has not been published and we have been told that new ITR (which we have not seen yet) will show a significant up tick on this and may also i believe indicate that all the basins form part of one massive reservoir. Also dare i think it but i think the Seabright and GRH and Keith have built up with their one knowledge something a lot more than Paul has given out. Slowly slowly catchy monkey. I think that trap is about to be sprung. I have a feeling that this might surprise a lot of us in a good way.

The other part is that the real potential for Trinidad has not even been priced in here yet. Trinidad is like a plant in the garden that wants to flower but is being over shadowed by a massive tree or bush. One that tree or bush is removed then TT will start to come into its own. An estimated DCF valuation was put forwarded suggested an MV of £200m. On the current share holding that would be 20p per share. But if PG buys that 9 / 10 shares from any divestment of Morocco that immediately becomes £2 a share.

Suddenly things start to look very attractive.

I completely agree with Sygmaas valuation and think it is just above the bottom end.

The problem it then gives a share valuation and a share that no one will buy. Yes the company will be worth £3.7bn but if this is a full sell out of Morocco there is nothing else in the company that provides any additional value. Who is going to pay in excess of £3.50 if there is no further upside on the share price. , There maybe a small dividend on TT but seriously 1p or 2p per share return on a £3.50 share is not attractive. So unless PG comes up with something from no where. This share will be worth what the company is worth and therefore not worth the paper it is written on.

But do not worry i have a plan for Paul and i am sure that by now he has already given this a lot of thought.

Basic hypothesis

980m fully diluted shares

Exchange Rate 1.35

Full Sell out Price $5bn

Sterling Value of Sell out £3.7bn and a bit of change

One off Special Dividend 50p per share

Dividend Distribution £ 0.49bn

Net Retained in Company £3.21bn

Then Paul initiates a share buy back of 19 shares for every 20 held. ie 95% of the number of shares in issue.at say £3.25 per share. That would return to the shareholders £3.025bn. Leaves a market cap for the company based on Morocco alone of £188m plus a market for Trinidad. Some estimates have put this as high as £200m but i am going to round down to £100m discounted value for Trinidad

Leaves a potential Market cap of £287m and a revised number of shares of 49m and Share Value of £5.87 per share (188m plus 100m / 980 m*19/20). This still leaves a MV per share of £5.87,

We would have then hold 1/20th of our original shares and in theory still worth £5.87 per share. But we would have received a total of £3.75p per share in Dividend and Share Buy backs. Still very high suggest Paul tries this model with £3.40p per share buy back

I think Paul said he was very pleased with the way the talks were progressing. I am not sure what your are working your ideas out on 500m usd is around 38p. £500m is 50p when all the additional shares are issued.

Beside that i think Paul is trying negotiate a complete exit from Morocco and he would want a lot more than 500m usd. Now if you are talking 500m for Mou-6 alone with a few residuals then possibly but i doubt if Paul would be very pleased with that. No IMO this will be significantly above 50p per share. After all Scorpian has had us at £1.50 per share for years despite the dilution of several share raises.

I am not sure if this deal or deals is going to "blow the b***dy doors off" but it will be fairly significant if nothing else. GLA

If anything tomorrow it will be late on after hours and a suspension of the shares. Then on Friday we will start to get the RNS's through starting with the Nu Tech revised ITR. Then early next week hopefully the big announcement. I am hoping a $5bn dollar total divestment of Morocco or something in that order.

I have heard of leaving an upside for the buyers but $1bn dollar exit price with all the potential Gas, Oil and potentially Helium is one hell of a lot of upside. For just Mou 3 it is a bit small but if you are throwing the Mou 5 potential. Then i sincerely hope you are wrong. I would hope the whole exit comes at nothing less than $5bn and we walk away. Any thing less than that would be giving it away IMO.

But i think it is best to just sit and wait. If i am right you will be a much better off than you thought. If you are right there are a number on here who will be very disappointed.

$1bn plus stub equity again will depend on how much and which fields.

HAd a friend try and buy £250 worth of share s and was told he would have to wait till they came availabl.e I would take that as a good sign.

If Mou-3 has pressurised gas and the ITR report demonstates that all the chambers/reservoirs are connected do we actually need to drill / test Mou 6 other than maybe prove up whiat is further down.

Some one tell me are we still churning through the placement shares. How can this price stay this low otherwise.

MM's must be desperate for your shares. Market down 5.7% but nothing but buys at 3.5p.

I have a few observations.

Last year on April 16th the Financial Results were published for the previous year. I would not expect the financial results for this year to be published until this deal is over the line or end of October 2026 whichever comes first.

There will be minimal change in the look of the income stream on the accounts it self as it only reports up to end of December and most the activity has been this year.

The interesting read will be the post balance sheet events section which would cover all events going on at the moment but as we would already know those events before the Financial reports happen to some extent the results are likely to be redundant. I can see it now income stream similar to what it is now with a loss for the year etc.

The post balance sheet events could read Predator have since sold out of Morocco for $X bn to xyz. Makes the results look a bit redundant.

As regards Mou-6. It will of course be renamed and by looks of it going deeper but i doubt it will be a little concern to us as it will not be our responsibility.

Only becomes relevant if deal breaks down and we need to start sourcing the equipment. If we do end up drilling Mou-6 looks as if it may be delayed a few weeks until we know this deal is going through.

I was hoping we might get news of some sort today but maybe next week. I would hope we hear for sure before end of April.

The longer this goes on the bigger i feel it is going to be. During this crisis some how i doubt you would debating the semantics of the deal. We are now into the real meat of this my bottom line figure for a full exit is looking likely to be beaten. I can wait for a few more months yet. GLA