Adam Davidson, CEO of Trident Royalties, discusses offtake milestones and catalysts to boost FY24. Watch the video here.
I would suggest we all shut up on here as everything is just b#####y conjecture at the moment. The bottom line is we have no clue because they have no clue. This is really getting beyond a joke and if the the government are really supportive i would suggest they pull their finger out and walk the walk and not just talk the talk. But will they i doubt it not before the next GE. After that if they get in they might but if they fail this share might be dead in the water.
IMO the PE idea was just exasperation and not given a great deal of thought not by someone who has always spoken about his "loyal shareholders" it would be shafting them in the back. Until someone comes up with plan that gives SH most of what they expect and i know many on here would be hoping for around the £10 a share mark and must admit i would not want to bow out at this stage for a great deal less.
I have managed to re arrange my timetable so to speak so now i can wait for a while at least. Hopefully Ireland might come off and that would be a nice bonus. But if PG is looking st West Africa then he must be thinking in the relative short term because where is the funding going to come from. He will not want to go back to markets at the moment and Trinidad is at best going to wipe its own nose (for the time being) So Ireland or for the first test drill must be lined up very shortly. GLA
There is still all to play for on this RNS.. If the oil was not running by now we would have found out and they would not still be testing or analysing. So i think that is one down and now due to viscosity i would reckon and a confirmation of the amount.
Just a warning there are so many shares here that the SP is going no where until we get some absolutely positive news of a sale to a major. This share is a traders dream and the company management is much the same. I would like the SP to hit a penny but i am not holding my breath for it.
If the chance of a proper deal for shareholders exists and i would be suprised because PE is first of about No1 and then somewhere down the chain come us the shareholder. It probably depends on the DCF factor as to how much value we get and whether better to have the bird in the hand or two in the bush.
I really think the threat of PE was just that a threat and not an actual thought. It was one of exasperation and not logical thought. Although it would be a logical thought if the SP does not react positively to positive news.
however PG needs to look himself in the mirror and be honest with himself to a certain degree he has bought this on himself. Far be it for to defend the MM's but occasionally the indefensible need defending,
This is all about Perception Management. he explained it very well at the presentation and if he had done the same with the RNS's the market would not have blinked.- much.
If he had marked the test drill up as an effort to get some thing to flow as it would not take much and learn more about the formation damage and if we are lucky we might get something as the alternative was to wait while we got 18 pieces of equipment from all around the world into little old Morocco (ue a "major logistical exercise" i think the words were in the presentation. And it would not cost much.
Then when you tell that we tried but it had failed the market would not have blinked much and i do not think would have dropped 1/3rd but you cannot promote a test and then when it fails to say you expected it to fail. That is what dodgy insurance companies do move the small print to the top of the page.
The markets deal with thousands of RNS's a day i would reckon and it would deal primarily in the headline element it is for the people with absolute knowledge of the subject to understand the minutiae and workout this was not likely to succeed . Now i admit i have not read the RNS again in detail but i do think it mentioned a likely hood of failing "expected to fail" otherwise i think it would have picked up by a number of people on here but even i get the likes of GRH and KO were caught out by the "expected to fail part"
Up until that presentation i felt this was because PG might not be a very good communicator at managing the downside but then that presentation came along and changed all of that.
So what was different.
From that presentation everyone has dismissed Ireland - WHY - because PG has dismissed Ireland. If Ireland comes through positively next week or whenever it is this SP will move substantially but if Ireland does not come through then it will not move the SP at all. Why - because IMO the markets have not factored anything in for Ireland.
As i have said earlier it is about Perception Management and he is not managing the perception very well at the moment. If you keep the perception in line with reality or should i say your expected reality then the SP will not drop significantly. Basically the markets do not like unexpected bad news. Bad news it will handle as long as you explain why it is likely to be bad.
I do not think he is stepping down immediately i got the impression it would a co-ordinated hand over over the next year so i would think no change unless for some reason we get a new Energy minister in next few days and that would change everything.
Selling for their ISA's in next couple of weeks.
I am not so sure. This i think will be very dependent on what we hear on Ireland. We are due to hear news on Ireland just at the time some people will be thinking fo selling for their ISA input but with Ireland coming up i will have to wait if Ireland is negative i will sell for the ISA move on the 6th but if Ireland is positive then it will be a whole different story.
Personally it is annoying to have Ireland come up now mid April would be far better
Ah this is the perennial question Investor or Trader Be. Should not stop being the trader and start becoming an investor. It is a bit like do you just rent your places or do you by a home.
When you rent you basically are disinterested in the place other than it serves a purpose but with buying you are buying into everything not just the home but the general area.
So with shares the trader just finds the shares that will suit his/her scenario the best. set himself trading range and buy in the dips and sell in peaks. No attachment to the share or the project the investor is interested in everything about what the company is about and even what is going on in the macro economy surrounding it.
So do you stop being a trader and possibly miss out on the real money or do you make your money as you go through. This has been going on here for a number of years now. I would reckon any decent trader has made more in that time than most of us will make when this does finally come to fruition and maybe even have a few still left in the pot at the end.
Personally i do not knock in fact i slight envy it and wish i had the still sets to do it. What i do not like though is need to try and manipulate the price to make it work either by shorting the share or by ramping price up or down just for their ends. Let the market do its job and if there are enough of them it will do it very nicely for them.
Our prize and investors comes at the end. Then you compare profits but as this has been running for around 5 years or more i would say you should think about applying a DCF on the cash flows to get a true picture who has done better.
That is a good question and i have one possible way. If Predator is set up as a number of different companies. ie Predator Morocco, Predator Ireland, Predator T&T all owned by Predator limited you would effectively just sell of Predator Morocco for Cash plus shares in which ever major it was. But first i think he would need to re-arrange the share holding in Pred Morocco to correspond with share shareholding in main company.
But this might be better answered by one of our city experts.
Thanks every body. I am not sure what i have started and i am not sure where it leaves us. Either 7.3 TCF or 0.7.TCF or 70.3TCF which ever way it is decent amount for one well.
Which brings me now to my next conundrum. If this were RNS i would reckon that PG was under estimating and add 50% on. But then this is not an RNS it is a presentation and they are generally marketing / sales exercises in which case i would probably think of deducting 50%.
But one thing i can tell you is that
A lot x A lot = Hell of a lot
A decent amount x A decent amount = A lot
A small amount x A small Amount = A very nice RoI even if it might not be life changing.
I have a feeling it is going to be nearer the middle of the three maybe edging on the top one.
The top one would not blow the doors off it would blow everything off. It would be like an atom bomb on everyones finances here and i do not care how rich you are it would be MASSIVE.
I am obviously being very thick this morning but if i use .657 instead of 657 it moves the decimal point by three places so instead of giving me 0.114 i am getting 114.15 a rather big jump the other way. There is obviously something here that i am missing and it is probably something very straight forward. All the other calculations i can follow ie the i can match the maths it is just this one where the decimal point is wrong. K Oz is obviously wrapped for the night now but if any one can unfathom this for me please i would be grateful.
75 / 657 = 0.11415
75/0.657 = 114.15
Now
750 / 657 = 1.14 This is or does come to 1.14.
I think that KO is probably right in his calculations as would be PG so there must be something straight forward that i am missing or not understanding.