Member Info for Ibiza28

I think the ITR report will deal with Mou 1 and Mou 3 not Mou 5. I think Mou 5 is going to need further 3d work to near to its full value and that maybe a year or two away.

I have a feeling that my thoughts that news would be this coming week is unlikely now. The reason is that there is no palpable increase in share trading. I must admit that although Mou-3 may not be the mega deal that Mou-5 should be it would still significantly re rate the current share price and i am certain that someone somewhere would get wind of it and start accumulating shares but the buys late on Friday do not indicate any thing other a few more speculative punters imo.

Mind you my thoughts that the ITR would come out at same time as the Mou 3 signature is looking more likely.

I think more of a puzzlement is Bon-18 by now almost three weeks and no news. If it was bad Friday would have been a good day to drop it. My thinking is that line in the last RNS about the raise (I cannot remember the exact wording right now ) but along "Other acquisitions that may or may not come up" Maybe one of them has come up sooner than expected or may be even as expected and PG is going to do one big announcement on Trinidad in one go.

Years ago when i was little lad my father used to nick my chips off my plate. And when i told him he was not his weight issues he would say he was eating my fat and therefore it did not count.

Now why mention this now. Well it is what i would call a very Irish logic and we seem to be seeing that same Irish logic play out now:

So we have found Gas for Ireland and a solution to store it as well.

Ireland do not want to produce Gas because they want to be Green.

Therefore they use someone elses gas and it makes them Greener.

Amazing logic.

Then add this into the mix. PRD are looking for exploitation license for the gas found. Unless i am mistaken we would have to pay for that license. They would also get from the gas that is produced. Taxes from the that produces the gas plus the benefit of probably having a whole load of gas at a cheaper price than getting it from uK.

But instead of all of that they will probably have to pay us 100 millions. and still have nothing to show for it.

Somehow Irish logic beats the hell out of me.

So using someone elses gas is greener than producing it yourself. Someone tell them it is not the extraction of gas that is probably the problem it is the consumption of the gas.

Seriously you could not make it up.

What are the chances of success.

Are not Italfluids ininvolved.

How long the drill and results.

An alternative Final Act

Paul is 73 His wife has told him it is time for him to stop playing sand castle in the sand.

Paul sells on Mou 3 with a residual Ad infinitum

Paul sells on Mou-5 with a residual Ad infinitum

Snow Cap 3 is successful, Other acquisition in Trinidad ( that "May or May not Occur") are made.

All Trinidad Assets are lput together and sold off to a US major that has moved in the Region with a Residual.

All Residuals are paid quarterly (Three separate deals ) Three separate quarter dates..

One in Jan/April/July/October

One in Feb/May/Aug/Nov

One in Mar/June/Sept/Dec

All operations are sold off. All staff disbanded. Company becomes a shell operation managed by Equiom in Jersey.

Dividend issued every month.

We would become a must hold for every pension fund in the country. Paul has an income for rest of his life

Far Fetched possibly but not impossible. GLA

If you put all the pieces together you could get to this picture.

Surely every deal has to involve ONHYM as they own 25% of everything beneath the ground and you cannot split up an mcf of gas and say this one is mine etc. The real tripartide deal comes with PRD/AG/???. This is when it could start to get big. AG has a market of $14.6bn. This would be big enough for us if all we had was what was first reported back in 2024 I think it was. But it looks as if there is far more than first thought plus there maybe some He, If there is then AG are going to need someone else to both manage produce and finance this. From what has been reported on here Vivo are the big brother to AG and there is also ONHYM the company in Morocco (newly formed) I understand. Exactly the backing and size of this i am uncertain. But yes this could get big. Initially we thought just a few hundred million dollars for based on the flow rate. Although the flow rate still important i think the size has over taken that priority. So [personally i am hoping for a lot more than $200-300m deal. And on reflection i think PG is. We were all dismayed at the size and amount of that last raise. I do not see the necessity of that right now and that time unless he knows two things. One that it will be accretive either by means of Snowcap 3 itself or by the fact that Morocco will be significant. Making the raise rather obsolete. Sp I would not be at all surprised if the initial deal in Morocco as bigger than first anticipated.

I still believe that Trinidad is being positioned for a sell off.

Original plan was to produce. and Snowcap 3 with a 50/50 farm in.

That recent raise was to go alone on Snowcap ie 100% Pred plus what I do not think has been mentioned "Another purchase that might or might not come up.

Put all these fields together with Geo politics of the area where Venezuela is uncertain to say the least and the moving of US majors into TT makes me think that we may get an offer we cannot refuse in 1st quarter of next year.

I log out for five minutes and four green boxes in a row. Well into second scores level one side well on top and the hanging on by fingernails. My thinking news Monday week.

No Keith talked about hyrdro-carbon chess and I mentioned 3D chess recently with Trinidad. So what is 5D chess.

Sorry i must be missing something

Why do you think this is positive for Pred. Cancelling a LNG (or putting it on hold) seems contrary to what we are aiming for isn't it.

If Mou-2 3 and 4 hold Helium. Are we not going to need another agreement. By all account the extraction and containment of Helium is rather complicated affair and i am sure not something that Pred would be capable of doing. AG i assume would only tohe first 5mmcfgd and we take the remainder and then someone else would need to come in for the Helium

Venezuela. - Personally i would be surprised if there are many if any US Oil companies (or any for that matter) wanting to rush into Venezuela. They are not in their till the next US election but in there for the next 20+ years. They would want to know they are dealing with Politically stable regime before putting any money. It is unlikely the US are flavour of the month in V consequently DT might drum on about US investment I would be surprised if this was long in talk and short in action unless something drastic happens ie Free and Fair elections and a guarantee from the new Government.

I think it is possible that Pred could get involved with de waxing in V but again given the situation PG would want cast iron guarantees before going ahead.

GLA our time is approaching. The shares being churned but still a hell of a lot to churn first before SP goes up.

I am beginning to think something is leaking someone call the gas man.

The update ITR will either immediately proceed the divestment or very shortly afterwards. It is clear the ITR is perceived and is part of the NDA.

The update ITR will either immediately proceed the divestment or very shortly afterwards. It is clear the ITR is perceived and is part of the NDA.

FabPhil

The on going deal I was referring to was Morocco. The additional cash in their might just make the hand look stronger.

As regards TT as pred says on X today right place right time. I think the change of plan from Farm out 50% Snowcap 3 to 100% Pred control was part of this right time right place.

At the moment TT is about worth this current share price. Assuming Snow Cap works out. Snow Cap plus Bannasse plus CM plus what ever we acquire in near future will all be part of a build up assets that would not be under various diffeent rights and different shareholdings but all 100% Pred owned and this will be (IMO) very attractive to an US major who is looking for stability in a region in current turmoil

I have always maintained that a small company is like a racing dinghy. In the wrong hands it is a handful and can easily capsize. In the right hands it is a very quick, nimble craft that can change direction at a moments notice. Big companies are like oil tankers (excuse the pun) turn the wheel and the tanker starts turning half a mile down stream. Therefore they need time to evaluate things and need a status quo to remain so that they can read the situation before acting.

They do not like it when the everything is thrown in the air. They need to wait for everything to settle down a bit before making any move.

Everything was thrown in the air when Trump seized Madruro and started appropriating Venezuelan oil.

Paul with a presence in T&T either read the Tea leave early or saw what was coming or got an indication of it in the wind. And instantly changed course. Catching a lot of us on the hop but surprised.

The move to go it alone with SC-3 rather than a 50/50 partnership went out the window. Plus the fact to he other opportunities in the pipeline from struggling field. He went directly to a placing (by the sounds of it not just with one house) but a few of them and raised more than he would need for the drill gave him two things immediately:

1) Leverage over an on going deal reaching a critical stage (IMO).

2) Positions Pred as a key player in T&T which has now assumed an important position in a very unsettled Geo-political world.

No longer can TT be considered as the poor sibling of a potentially very wealth big brother but is now one that is striking out on his own.

Trinidad was always just meant to wipe its own face (cover its own costs) and hopefully make a small contribution to the companies finances maybe even cover all its overhead costs.

Now i believe Paul is positioning TT to be a major 100% owner of a number of producing fields in an US friendly environment. The fact that Exxon and others are moving into the area actively and TT taking the cobwebs out of its refinery system is indication to me that Paul is looking to take advantage of all of this and will probably divest all of TT to possibly a major sometime around this time next year. And it will be a bit more than a few pence per share.

A superb indication of how small companies can out manoeuvre big ones and get in before they are able to make the move. This time next year watch this space for TT being divested to a major. 100% held no minorities.

The RNS was in my opinion pretty well totally unnecessary. We were informed not so long ago in an RNS the number of shares issued in the company only a week or so ago on the last placing. So i ask myself the question why now and why late on Friday..

The answer I get is that something is going to break very shortly and the ITR (which i think will come immediately before the main news) will show a very sharp increase in our 1 and 2 C figures. Otherwise they quite frankly run out of gas in around 10 years. Not a good idea.

So RNS Friday i would hope news on Monday/Tuesday. I think the interesting number other than the price we get will be the percentage of our market share we sell on. The two together ( our cash received and the size of the residuals will govern our Market Cap or at least be a major factor in it.

My thoughts and No AI just my RNS (Really Naive and Stupid)

There is so much expected news and news that has changed from its original ideas i am starting to lose thread of where we are what is happening.

I know we expecting ITR update Mou 1 and Mou 3 from Nu-Tech. I am assuming that comes first.

At some point we an agreement on CNG/LNG to come through i assume based around the Nu Tech numbers.

I am not sure if Mou 6 comes next and in what form. Are we likely to be divesting this or looking for a farm-in. Do we get this to flow first or wiill this be sorted before then.

Then i assume there is the big one Mou5.

Personally i am thinking that things may have slipped (deliberately) to around early 2027 to get a maximum get out of everywhere. Trinidad to a major hence the build up of 100% owned assets, By then what is happening in Ireland court cases should be a lot clearer and of course the cummulation of things in Morocco and PG will be 74.

Agree with all GRH says the question is really

Are the unknown Unknowns likely to be small in size and small in value to the whole picture.

I was a bit taken a back by the change of mind in PG on last RNS regarding the exploration and exploitation of the SC-3 drill. And then that rather cryptic line the remainder money being used to buy other assets that "May or May not come available". That to me reads that he already has in mind some old oil fields that are not producing at the moment. I would not be at all surprised if he is not building up a package of assets in Trinidad of which the big one will hopefully be SC-3. And in a year approximately he will sell the lot to someone who has an infrastructure in place but may net yet be fully utilising it at that point in time (Exxon). I think is the perfect example of small one man band businesses being able to adapt very quickly to moving trends is they have the facility.. Also in a year We should have a very good idea what is happening in the case against the Irish government. And also by then we should have basically got every thing sorted re Morocco. So maybe in a year from now we would completely exit everywhere and Paul would go into his retirement in a planned manner. with a very big price tag.