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So let us now project forward (obviously with assumptions). we have the LP and Velociraptor has come up trumps and so has the new blocks yet to be announced. With help of DQE we are producing Oil to be sent off via truck load to China and the Mongolian Refinery is beginning to take shape.
The first question is what now for Petro Matad. Assuming that Velociraptor looks like being ths same extraction price from the ground as Herron ie circa $15 per barrel which would make it a very large low cost high margin well that one of the majors would die for. So would we get sold on. But would MG agree or would they find a away of vetoing it by arranging for Petrovis to block any deal. Also would they want to be reliant China playing ball with their facilities and rely of the MG to complete refinery on time. So what do we become. Mid level kind of Tullow Oil split into three main divisions:
1) Exploiting and production of oil
2) Exploring and Appraisal of oil finds.
3) Renewables.
and i would include a fourth division and spread our wings maybe M&A or Mergers and Acquisitions.
If we do become a mid sized Oil Producer and Exploiter i do think the city will want MB running the show. The city are quite ruthless and although a lot of what has happened is not MB's fault he has hardly looked dynamic (and that is a large part of the game) and has in fact (imho) come over as being out of his depth and incapable at times. They will want a new CEO to run the whole show. MB if he finds oil in the Raptors plus the other blocks will have proved himself as an explorer with a throughly good record. No my opinion is that if these come off this time next year or less MB will have been shown the door or kicked sideways as MD of Oil Exploration and a new CEO brought in the city and we could well have a new raft of major player shareholders.
What PM needs is a Daniel Plainview - I think Day-Lewis is available!
Heron permission and investors will be rich.
Velociraptor strike and we'll be unbelievably rich, partly because it's such a vast prospective oil field but also because Petro Matad will have de-risked all the other oil targets in Block V and they can then tick them off one by one as they accumulate Geological knowledge.
They'll then have all the time and money in the World to play 'hunt the oil' elsewhere in the Block and other more recently acquired Blocks.
2023. The year it all began?
Ibiza, think you are totally correct on MB. Ref being bought out. IMO i think when we get the LP for Heron and we start working with DQE and have multi wells on the go Petro China will be an offer in for Block XX. They did the same with SOCO many years ago on the blocks they have now. OM would then be left to concentrate on Velociraptor, New Licences and Renewables. The only negative side to the PC Block XX takeover i believe will be whether MRPAM/MMHI and the locals accept PC having Block XX considering their previous performance.
//Heron permission and investors will be rich.//
Not usually prone to giving advice but if there's an LP spike - SELL.
Crystal Ball time?
There are plenty of long term holders who could have made fortunes in Petro Matad if they'd bought and sold at the right times, the same is true in most stocks - even the 'dogs'.
Truth is if you sold on Heron permission you'd make money but I think longer term holding would be an entirely safe investment and wealth generation options.
There's Velociraptor Trend up-side but longer term nailed on Green Energy production profits to be made.
Heron is only the beginning?
Ibiza28
Blimey !!!!! You on fire today. Some great posts.
I am impressed. Very busy with work deadlines but just had a quick peek here.
Short answer and its my own strong view is MATD will be presented with a variety of choices going forward from any of Multi-national Companies looking into Mongolia. Petrochina might have to compete with these MNCs for piece of the action:
1) JV or Outright Buyout Block XX
2) JV or Outright Buyout of Block V if V-1 hits the sweet spot just like Heron-1
3) MATD acquire 3 new Blocks and repeat same success and JV with incoming BIG player.
4) MATD fast track their Renewal Energy business with JV with a Bigger player.
Oil Exploration & Renewable Energy
- both are part of Govt VISION 2050
Block XX Exploitation licence would run till 2052
(If we also used 2 three year extensions).
Short term.....5p to 50p achievable this year
Medium term....£2.00
Long term....£5.00 plus
Everyone will have different holding timeframe and Entry / Exit points...but Upside is Massive.
IMHO.
I remember one of the deals was that PC can not buy block xx.
Hence they are JV with a different company.
Still PC owned but different branch