Ghia - FWIW I hope you contribute and check in more often than every 3 months.
I’m definitely more optimistic post AGM, but I’m not going to get carried away and think I’ll be making millions in the next few months. I’m still slightly nervous about us getting on another trial, regardless of what RM might have intimated. I’ll believe it when I see it, is now my mantra with Synairgen and to stop myself being disappointed!
Ghia - I tend to agree with most of what you’ve said today but do think we could easily see 50p+ on the back of news of a new trial. If we can get on two trials and the ACTIV P2 data is good, hopefully a fair bit more than 50p. Always hard to judge these things, however, companies who have drugs that are in a phase 3 trial(s) are surely valued a fair bit higher than our current market cap?
Also, I just can’t believe we’d get what will hopefully be good ACTIV P2 data and a trial, and still be languishing down at 30-40p.
I recall something else from the AGM now that SSH said. Something along the lines that drugs and research for respiratory diseases were seen as boring and there was little focus on them. Now, it is completely the opposite. Hopefully that should mean we continue to get some support to get this over the line, even if it does take years.
I also tend to agree with Ghia’s assessment, at least with regards to timescales.
However, I do think the SP will handsomely re-rate on receiving ACTIV P2 data and hopefully a new trial. My best guess, good P2 data takes the SP up to between 50-60p, and news of a new trial(s) as much as £1+.
I’ll play this game for a bit of fun on a wet Saturday evening!
Worse case: 3 months - still no ACTIV P2 data. 6 months - ACTIV P2 data received but merely average with no new trials. 1yr - still frantically trying to find a free trial. 2yr - cash raise needed otherwise it’s the end of Synairgen.
Best case: 3 months - ACTIV P2 data finally received, and it’s AMAZING! 6 months - on two new paid for trials, inpatient and outpatient. 1yr - Covid has flared back up again BIG TIME, the trials are going incredibly well and Synairgen are encouraged to apply for EUA because the world urgently needs SNG001. 2yr - SNG001 confirmed as a life saver, full authorisation granted and a bidding war ensues. Pfizer and AstraZeneca fight it out with bids around £20 billion or £100 per share.
Realistic case: 3 months - ACTIV P2 data received and it’s decent. 6 months - invited to join new trial that has replaced ACTIV. 1yr - no real news, we are in the thick of the trial. Long shot of a bid from large pharma who want to take an educated punt. 2yr - drug is proven to work and bids come in from multiple large pharma cos.
I’ll admit, I thought he seemed slightly stand-offish. I can’t recall which question (possibly where we were pushing for more info on ACTIV and when we might get the data/could they do more etc) and he slightly snapped. All my own opinion. He just didn’t seem as much of a people person as the others, but I suppose he is a scientist and not a speaker.
In his defence, I did see him immediately after the Q&A proactively seek out one investor to answer his question in more detail on a one to one, so credit to him for that!
And thinking back, Iain Buchanan looked distinctly unimpressed when we were questioning him on how he had worked out such significant pay rises for everyone!
Thanks HPHQ. It was some effort and a very early start. But good for everyone to hopefully glean something from the AGM. Banging headache now… I promise nothing to do with the “few” pints of Doom Bar post AGM and debrief… ;)
Tommy - I think that’s a very fair assessment. It went on until around 11.15am, with most of that for Q&A for those in the room…. Got to give them full credit for that. They were peppered non stop with questions and I thought answered most of them well. A few responses I particularly liked, and I tend to agree that Synairgen’s future is far from done.
We want to put a detailed write up together of everything discussed. We have detailed notes and it would be impossible to write it all on via phone.
It will be as impartial as possible, with more of the facts than personal opinion. But I am happier now than before I went in, albeit this is going to be a longer journey than we had all initially hoped.