RE: Senior Medical Writer - job spec - 3 days ago29 Jul 2022 17:50
Woodstock - the SP is, as it always has been, based on hope value. This could easily go to multiple billions in market cap terms if successful, or think in terms of odds, maybe 100/1 odds. So yes, it’s a long shot and is priced accordingly. I happen to think it’s better than 100/1 odds, though. Or even 20/1 odds. Hence me holding my shares.
Manifesto - Summer technically goes to 23rd September. Let's hope we hear something before then, however, I am much more calmer these days on the SNG timescales... for the sake of my sanity I have to be!
Manifesto - I think the "expected Summer" timeframe was a guess from them. From the AGM, I do not recall them saying they had been given any firm timescales from the US for when they might get the results.
RE: Interferon beta might neutralise covid and long covid.22 Jul 2022 18:28
“Is it just my perception, or is the company "on hold" pending someone contacting them regarding the next steps?”
Palladin - that is absolutely correct. We are waiting for the US to give us the phase 2 ACTIV data and also whether or not we will be on an ACTIV phase 3 trial (unlikely) or an equivalent newly designed trial (more likely, I hope)
In addition, they are looking to get on a paid for platform trial. Synairgen are clearly good to go but are obviously waiting to be enrolled on one.
£5 would certainly put me close to retirement territory, about 20yrs ahead of schedule after averaging down considerably.
But I think we’re a way off from that yet.
Even though I have averaged down, in my mind and for my sanity, I have written off all of my investment in Synairgen. If it comes off, great. If it doesn’t, I won’t be as disappointed as I was on 21/2/22.
RE: let no good deed go unpunished15 Jul 2022 18:58
The AGM notes Wigster and I put together were very much written as closely to verbatim as possible, in order that everyone could come to their own conclusion. Albeit we did say at the end that we felt more positive after the event than before it.
I wouldn’t say we were star struck (maybe a little with SSH, who seemed a genuinely nice person and still so enthusiastic to help in any way he can). On the contrary, we and many others asked some very difficult and probing questions. I still have confidence but my big concern has been, and still is, that we are now reliant on others. Not an ideal situation to be in.
Palladin - I also can’t believe how slow things seem to be progressing when Covid seems to be flaring back up and we are one variant away from potential disaster. Although I do also appreciate that such trials were much slower before Covid-19.
All the details are there on page 23 and 24 of the annual report (see Brand’s link below).
This bit confirms they can be exercised in the event of a TO: “In the event of a “good leaver” event or a change of control of the Company, the LTIP awards may vest early, but only to the extent that, in the opinion of the Committee, the performance conditions have been satisfied at that time.”
Plenty of detail on there about what the performance targets were for the 2018-21 LTIP. I assume it will be similar for these options.
At the end of the day, if Synairgen don’t get positive results from the next trial(s) (providing we get on one), then the company will be toast and the directors and senior team won’t be getting any incentives ever again.
Ghia - FWIW I hope you contribute and check in more often than every 3 months.
I’m definitely more optimistic post AGM, but I’m not going to get carried away and think I’ll be making millions in the next few months. I’m still slightly nervous about us getting on another trial, regardless of what RM might have intimated. I’ll believe it when I see it, is now my mantra with Synairgen and to stop myself being disappointed!
Ghia - I tend to agree with most of what you’ve said today but do think we could easily see 50p+ on the back of news of a new trial. If we can get on two trials and the ACTIV P2 data is good, hopefully a fair bit more than 50p. Always hard to judge these things, however, companies who have drugs that are in a phase 3 trial(s) are surely valued a fair bit higher than our current market cap?
Also, I just can’t believe we’d get what will hopefully be good ACTIV P2 data and a trial, and still be languishing down at 30-40p.
I recall something else from the AGM now that SSH said. Something along the lines that drugs and research for respiratory diseases were seen as boring and there was little focus on them. Now, it is completely the opposite. Hopefully that should mean we continue to get some support to get this over the line, even if it does take years.