Our latest episode of the Investing Matters Podcast, featuring Janet Mui, award-winning investment industry commentator, has just been released. Listen here.
Hi Aether, apologies. It is not intentional.
We want to put a detailed write up together of everything discussed. We have detailed notes and it would be impossible to write it all on via phone.
It will be as impartial as possible, with more of the facts than personal opinion. But I am happier now than before I went in, albeit this is going to be a longer journey than we had all initially hoped.
Hi all, just got out of the AGM. I counted approximately 16 investors only, plus a few of the Synairgen team such as Brooke who were sat with everyone.
I’m just having a thorough debrief with a fellow LSE member and will do a full write up if not this evening, tomorrow.
Got to shake hands with Sir Stephen Holgate and a brief one to one chat with RM and Simon Shaw. I personally found it a fascinating meeting. But in summary, I’m happy to hold my shares.
More to come from me as soon as I can write it up properly.
HPHQ - have you had any confirmation at all from HL that you’re down to attend? They usually have to send a letter to the registrar. If so, I reckon you’d be ok with ID and account details, providing the registrar know.
Right, bed for me. 5am start… ugh.
Manifesto - yes, we would really need two or more potential partners fighting over us. Because if not, I maintain our position is weak. MrCosts is right… we are now reliant on others, and that is usually not a good place to find yourself.
It is most likely that tomorrow will be a non event, and as a result the SP could fall (it already is!).
But we know we are waiting for news on ACTIV P2 data and new trials. So if there's no news tomorrow we shouldn't necessarily panic. What I'm really after tomorrow is to find out if the current management team have the ability to take Synairgen forward and what their own plans/thoughts are for the future.
Tommy says questions about money running out are being answered by the BOD saying they'll JV/partner up. But as mentioned earlier, we seem in a very weak position to be negotiating any JV terms. Any partner who don't like our terms can tell us to go on our own, knowing we can't afford it. I may be wrong...
There’s so many questions I could ask Synairgen, but I really want to know their thoughts on:
Polygon - we all seems fixated on them and their buying up of SNG shares, and rightly so. Heading up towards 30%, they are now extremely relevant to SNG’s future, so what are the board’s thoughts?
JV/Partnership - mentioned previously by RM, is this realistic? And if so, are we not in a perilously weak negotiating position, because any potential partner could threaten and say to us to go it alone ourselves, knowing we cannot afford this?
Recent hires - we hired a lot of expensive people when looking to scale up production on the back of a successful P3. This didn’t happen, so what are the plans for these people?
“I remember reading posts saying that incorrect amount of doses were given eg. not the correct number per day, or not starting on day 1 etc. If true, then why no compensation from the trial administrators…”
Fantastic question. 10’s of £millions spent on a trial for a third party(s) to mess it up. Compensation sounds fair to me.
Tommy - if the numbers are good, that it could be saving lives (or well on its way to being proven in a larger P3 trial) do you agree it’s poor form for it to have dragged on so long? We’ll be a year on from P2 completion and no sign of it being progressed despite the urgent need for it.
Feef56 - let’s pretend the ACTIV P2 trial had similar levels of efficacy as our hospitalised patients P2 trial in July 2020, where there was an incredible 79% reduction in developing severe diseases, for the ACTIV team to have not still progressed it would make them morally bankrupt. If it was so good that it could be saving lives and to just leave it in no man’s lands…
That’s why my guess is that the numbers are good. But not that good.
Again, I hope I’m wrong and we saw 80%+ improvements and the NIH have dropped a moral clanger.
Other possibility is that P2 results were merely average (like SAB’s), hence no rush to get it on another trial and/or trying to find if there’s some trial they can construct that might prove it works.
Clearly I hope this is not the case!
Where is the part it mentions “updating attendees on the results from the ACTIV trials”? Not doubting it says that, just sounds potentially exciting and wanted to read it myself!
If it genuinely is ALL results, including the much anticipated Synairgen P2 results, could it be more than a coincidence that our AGM is almost immediately after…?
Some of the lines I found more interesting...
“We are engaged with people in the scientific community and people around these national trials that may be capable of taking our drug further forward than where we’ve got to date..."
"we need to convert these conversations into clinical trials where we continue to assess the drug."
"next step is to fully engage with these teams and talk to them about including our drug in their trials."
"they are reorientating these trials to include OTHER viruses..."
I thought some might find this useful. Sometimes things are a bit clearer in writing.
RM Proactive Interview - 5 April 2022 (pre deep dive analysis)
Disappointing SPRINTER results:
“It’s been tough for investors, and we recognise that.”
“We are engaged with people in the scientific community and people around these national trials that may be capable of taking our drug further forward than where we’ve got to date, in Covid. But we need to remember prior to Covid we were developing this drug because it’s got broad spectrum antiviral properties…we’ve got our eye on things (other than) around Covid.”
“We are talking to the trial team to identify other ways we can generate data in the community, prior to being hospitalised.”
What’s next for SNG?:
We’re engaging with the scientific community to understand the meaning of this data and identify ways forward…”
“The data we’re generating is opening up some very interesting conversations and we need to convert these conversations into clinical trials where we continue to assess the drug.”
Message to investors?:
“Watch out for the data and trust us that we are really busy working through the data and engaging with the scientific community, particularly around trials that are being conducted in the Covid-19 area.”
RM Proactive Interview – 18 May 2022 (post deep dive)
What’s the next step?:
“What we’re looking to do is collaborate with some of these very large clinical trial platforms that have been formed during Covid times, to confirm this signal (that SNG works), so that’s the next step.”
Conclude with what the next steps are exactly?:
“We’ve had some meetings with the clinical trial community as we’ve been analysing the data and they’ve been interested in the data, that the real next step is to fully engage with these teams and talk to them about including our drug in their trials. What’s great for us is that there some tremendously large groups doing this effectively around the world and it is quite exciting for us that they’ve done incredible things during Covid times.
They’ve recognised there was a medical problem before Covid came along, so they are reorientating these trials to include other viruses which is absolutely perfect for us. So we’re in a series of discussions with these trial teams and we think the data we’ve generated makes our drug a very attractive drug to be included in these trials.”
I think it’s fair to say we were all very excited at the senior job hires and commercialisation agreements being made. I think we also (incorrectly) assumed the company had been given a bit of a heads up that things were looking good and to get ready for production. As it turned out, they didn’t have a clue.
You live and die by your decisions. If P3 had been a success they would have indeed been heroes and reaped the rewards. But it wasn’t, and now we know they didn’t have any nudges or winks from the powers that be I would argue they gambled a bit too much with all that they did. They’d already missed peak Covid (at least at that particular moment in time) so why the rush?
Thursday should be fascinating. It’s ok reading or watching interviews, but there is nothing like meeting people in person and seeing the whites of their eyes to really understand what kind of person they are. Can RM and the current management team take SNG forward? I’ll hopefully have a better idea by Thursday afternoon.