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I may buy a chunk on Monday and chance that 20p is the bottom.
For a newbie what are the actual chances of success that have been published in company docs for the Serenity drill? I've had a quick look over the fundamentals and doesn't look like there will be a placing anytime soon due to the funding, but how much oil is being produced from liberator phase 1 at the moment and will this start to be ramped up?
Thanks very helpful unlike the other numpty. Good to hear your views but with Serenity being a different play the duster at Liberator shouldn't affect the chances for Serenity. But yes I understand what you’re saying about faith in the BOD and their COS calcs. I’ll do some research on the Tain discovery today and the likelihood of extension.
@Harts -
a) check out the posts by BigBiteNow for a genuinely well researched and well presented summary of the company and the current position
b) be aware of the not altogether honest approach from some contributors - Backwoodsman being a good example as is Fastfood
c) do your own research. Google is actually an easy way to find several videos of the CEO presenting information.
d) good luck with your investment choices
Backwoodsman - you have been peddling so much un -substantiated fear laced nonsense over the last couple of weeks. -I tried to point you in the direction of information to dispute your outrageous claims and yet still you persist. Everyone who has read over the last couple of weeks knows you for exactly what you are.
Ophidian
Ophidia trying to make friends .... when someone Posts something like that / you know they are .....an Idiot.
The SP is what it is because there is High %Risk involved in attaining Senior Financing. The Company already failed in going with Joint Venture / when they said “Imminent”.
I cannot for the life of me think why you would miss the edge of your main play by “Clipping the Boundary” - although they did penetrate the lower Captain sands so they do have a Valuable Data Point.
These are not Wildcat Wells / They are Appraisal Wells - which is good. So the only argument remains is / are the 2 Reservoirs substantial enough to economically get the oil out of the ground ? And can they actually Hit them ? Seen as they missed the first one !!
I do not trust BBN - Although I have found him very informative and this is welcome.
If this was a “Good thing” the MCap would not be £19m Upon 2/3 Drills !!! The clue is in the SP !!
All the talk of 15000 bopd is all of a sudden in doubt. It has to go perfect and they’ve failed early.
I wish all SH best of Luck. As you are Buying. Other hand with more knowledge is Selling (or de risking). This doesn’t mean it’s impossible for successful outcome.
It’s not quite the slam dunk some make out. Or you would not be able to enter at 20p !! It could go to 10p on poor outcome of this Drill. It could also go to 30p. Talk of 80p depends on 3rd Drill for me. Just my opinion.
@Fastfood - thank you for making my point for me so emphatically.
Ophidian
Thanks all,
Surely there is a case for a bit of a recovery in the SP from the Liberator result in anticipation of increasing I3e’s reserves with Serenity? Or is sentiment so low here that you can’t see that recovery happening due to the lack of faith in the BOD to hit oil?
And Harts / imo 20p is a decent entry point. But I believe this is not the bottom. 0p is the bottom. This could go 10p on bad news at Serenity / and then “They” will say / “Liberator was always the main Play” when they first Set up i3 - and it was. Also curious that that is the third Drill !! So do you see ?? This could go 10p and that’s when the Big Money comes in as “They” may know more about Liberator than us Accountants.
I believe there is High Risk with Serenity that it will not deliver the desired Result. Enough Recoverable Oil. But Liberator can / and this allows the BOD to cont drawing a Salary whereby they can make their money back on self Investment. You would also see them “Backing the Company” at 10p on a poor Serenity Drill.
If you’ve got 100 to Invest. Always keep some back in Cash. Simple.
Backwoodsman - I'm really not sure you should attempt to lecture on rationality. And just FYI I am not even "underwater" let alone heavily. This is all free money for me as a little side punt while we wait for BMN to complete. Try and keep up. But just stop lying and spreading untruths and half truths.
Ophidian
"Idiot" and now "Bully" - could it just be you can't win an argument with rational debate Fastfood ?
Ophidian
If the do not perform a DST on Serenity then how will they arrive at a flow rate for it ?
Is it just a projection that will not be proven accurate until production commences, or will the projection not be confirmed until a further appraisal well is drilled in later years that will get tested ?
I can appreciate why they could be more confident in projecting the flow rate from the Liberator well we’re it not to have a DST performed on it, as they have likely got previous license data to corroborate that, but I’m not sure that they have that level of necessary data for Serenity, or do they ?
You spent days denying this was an appraisal well when every published description said it was - lies and untruths take many forms. Insidious and continual undermining with the odd half truth thrown in to try and buy credibility can't mask your nature or intent.
So now you're an expert in psychology too are you?
Ophidian
@Backwoodsman Good afternoon. I don't have much time this afternoon being that it is Sunday and family day but I just wanted to pick you up briefly on something you said earlier today ;
"my concern is that the information that BBN has based his work on is itself flawed. You already know why I think that. This isn’t fear-mongering. It’s reasoned and analytical thinking."
If it is indeed your desire to be reasoned and analytical, which I have no wish to attempt to undermine here, then with all due respect, why does yours, and a great deal many others I might add, current thinking choose to disregard what I3E are clearly telling the market and instead focus solely in on I3E's valuation being pinned against the successful drilling of Serenity and the Liberator West appraisal.
I posted the following on Friday ;
"The Company’s focus for the remainder of 2019 will be on 3 key areas:
1 The safe completion of its multi-well drilling campaign at Liberator and Serenity.
2 Continued advancement of a robust Liberator Phase I development plan while securing associated funding to bring the field to first oil.
3 On success at Serenity and Liberator West, progress development options for these assets."
In addition, the same interims contain the following quotes ;
"i3's preliminary integration and findings explain the unexpected 13/23c-9 well result and continue to support Management's view of Liberator's potential resources."
"Though we were disappointed to have missed the targeted upper Captain sands with our first well 13/23c-9, our post-drill analysis incorporating data from the well confirms our view that Liberator is a material asset and the Company remains excited about Serenity and Liberator West where the majority of our on-block resources are mapped."
"We look forward to updating our shareholders after we have completed our analysis of the 13/23c-9 well and revised mapping of Liberator and as we obtain results from our ongoing drilling campaign."
So in a nutshell, I3E has told the market not only that it will be "continuing advancement of a robust phase 1 development" but that the "post drill analysis incorporating data from the well""confirms our view that Liberator is a material asset" to the point that I3E are "looking forward to updating our shareholders after we have completed our analysis of the 13/23c-9 well and revised our mapping of Liberator."
They are looking forward to updating their shareholders on a drill that the market has effectively written off LIB phase 1 against. The assumption being that missing the target can only ever be a bad thing. They must be real sadists to be looking forward to disappointing the market mustn't they?
Even more so when a key area of focus continues to be a "robust" LIB phase 1 development plan.
That isn't interpretation of "information" that is "flawed," its simply reading what I have been told and understanding it for what it means.
Add to that previous post the statement in the interims that says ;
"In regard to future funding, i3 continues to explore all options. We are preparing to fund Liberator Phase I on a 100% working interest basis through our progression of a US$100 million reserve-based lending facility."
So continuing with a robust phase 1 development through a $100m senior lending facility, having analysed the post drill analysis data, and seeing that Liberator is a material asset, and yet I am expected to sit here and be told that LIB phase 1 is dead in the water and its all or nothing on Serenity and LIB West.
But what if all of those statements delivered by oil and oil funding related professionals, with very solid reputations, are actually simply telling it like it is. No bells and whistles. No prolonged interviews around the various AIM circus media. They are simply delivering a report that says what they have found, what they believe, and how they intend moving forward.
Such that perhaps, just perhaps, the market has massively mis-read I3E because it expects to be sold the story far more strongly. What does that make Serenity and LIB West then? What does that make the 20m valuation then?
BBN “A $100m Dollar Lending Facility”.
Scroll back to RNS SEP 18 2018. Bad News re Joint Venture Funding failure. SP tanks £1.20 down to 40p to end DEC 2018. Every Institution traded down. James Caird went 4.99% to below 3% and probably 0% hence the SP Fall to 40p Over 3 months.
At this Point they had not completed First Failed Drill.
First Drill fails to Verify anything re Liberator as they missed the Oil.
Nothing is yet Proven / so you think a $100m lending facility is progressing nicely ???
Nope. I’m happy to be proved wrong but I fail to see how things are evenly balanced when
1 / They’ve failed before re Funding via Joint Venture SEP 18 2018. And
2 / They have still failed to prove we have sufficient Oil / due to missing Upper Captain sands on SEP 10 2019.
Somebody please prove me wrong. It all depends on assessing proof of Oil data. So it hangs on findings of Serenity Drill at the moment. Does it not ???
Have a listen to the 25th Feb 2019 interview regarding JV progress, then tell me it’s deadman’s they have failed. Have you considered that the reason it wouldn’t come to fruition is because I3E want to keep 100% of both assets because they can fund them themselves through a ‘robust’phase 1 development?
BBN “What if they tell it like it is, with very solid reputations”.
They already failed regard the Joint Venture. Carson said “We are at an advanced stage re Joint Venture”.
Soon after / RNS SEP 18 2018 JV pulled. Sp tanks £1.20 to 40p.
We have since had a failed Drill / so I fail to see that a $100m Senior Lending Facility is anything other than a Dream. It all depends on these 2 Drills. They failed with the first one.
Cheers. Your thoughts ?? Anyone ..
BBN. Some Merit in what you have just said. Yes. They want to keep 100% Interest. That’s Good and they have a case. But Carson said just before The JV failure at a Conference that they were at Final Stages and then the RNS SEP 18 2018 caused the SP to tumble £1.20 to 40p.
So ... is it better to go Joint Venture or is it better to go 100% ?? The SP tells you Joint Venture is Best does it not ? And given that Carson himself said it was because of the Partners Re structure/ then they could not make the Funds available !! So he was ready to sign.
Now you tell me he prefers to go it alone ???
Nope. Why ? Because now it is all the ability to raise the $100m dollars. And we know what that depends on. Because if the outcome of these 2 Drills is nothing less than Amazing ... Then they might have to Dilute to get the money. Or not even get the money at all. Everyone wants their slice. $100m is a lot for a field 4km x 10km.
This is why SP is 20p and not £1 as before. Because it all has to go Perfect to get to First Oil. Anything goes wrong and people walk away. It’s all about Risk. If it was a good thing / James Caird would be still in along with Milton. This is why it’s 20p. All the Risk lay with anyone who bought 50p to £1.20. The only way their Shareholding Value comes back is if Serenity is a 100% successful Drill. Liberator will not deliver £1 on its own.
Does BBN know more than them ?..
My only saving Grace in this Share is that BNY are still in ? Lombard obviously. And the other Institutions maybe still in at 2.99%. The Board own their own slice which is also good.
Have i3 published any up to date figures ??
Can anyone on here add Opinion on this. It’s Vital we know who’s in at this Stage !!
The question is can you trust the people in charge to deliver or is it just hot air? Same can be said for AAOG. But got to be in it to win it!
BigBitNow,
Your posts are well reasoned and informative but could also be considered overly optimistic. You focus a lot on what they have said but have you considered what they have done. I have a significant holding which I hope is still
Significant after the results but consider the following:
1) Last announcement that exceeded expectations was the joint venture which they did not deliver. Many people including myself felt they did a poor job of explaining this to the detriment of the SP.
2) They placed at a disappointing SP which I feel was in part due to the poor handling of news flow.
3) They delivered on the Junior Loan note so good job.
4) They drilled a duster that was supposed to have a high chance of success. They claimed after the fact that they foresaw missing the channel - they did a poor job of explaining this in advance and seems like they took an unnecessary risk.
5) Permits not ready for the current drill - rig sat idle for a significant time burning a lot of much needed cash plus pushing the drilling program further into potentially bad weather. This seems like a massive dropped ball especially since they claimed to have foreseen the possibility of a duster. No explanation as to why this was the case.
So whilst your of the opinion that management have everything under control - this currently does not seem to be supported by actual events.
This could all change with a good drilling result. - lets see what happens.
doing well so far Backwoodsman straight out of the play book
https://messageboardfools.com/bashers.htm
Yep, he's not got his full position here yet. Another week should do it.
no - you stopped talking when I posted the example of your recent lying that you requested. All went very quiet then. Good job everyone can make their own minds up isn't it. Well - I think I've wasted quite enough time talking to you now so toodle-pip.
Ophidian
"Serenity is a prospect, not a discovery. It’s an exploration well." October 8th 08:31. Not caveated as an opinion - posted as fact.
Whilst looking back for this I had to wade through pages and pages of the same diatribe we suffer here on all the other boards this Troll pollutes. Sadly - he uses exactly the same language, strategies and tactics. Have a look it is quite enlightening. Everywhere he can't make a substantive argument, he swaps to an ad Hominem attack. Really a piece of work and a bit too informed about that well known character Chis Oil to be a comfortable coincidence. Research, read, learn people. This character is simply bad news.
Ophidian