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The obvious sound bites have already been highlighted. I commented the other day about why drill at Wapiti when you have wells in some of the other area's (Simonette & Clearwater) that have potentials of 400 bopd and higher per well. I think Majid touched on it here and stated that:
"...Wapiti is a core asset....we've already spoken about South Simonette which could add really significant volumes when we invest the capital, the same is true of Wapiti..........Clearwater ...Central Area's...."
I think we have a Unicorn here and Graham is already talking about "doubling and tripling from where we are now" - I think he's being conservative !!
All positive for I3e - tighter supplies and higher prices in future. With the Majors thinking twice about investments in large projects - companies like i3e could well be in the sweet spot. Production can be ramped up incrementally and funded to a significant degree through FCF.
Check our EMO at open - Doc is reporting some news that could be significant.
Thanks for that. Did he double his holdings and how did he do it - options, golden handshake or purchase on the open market ? A nearly 2% holding is bullish in itself but it would be even better if he has doubled up after leaving - preferably with his own cash!
Jimbo's comments are over the top imo especially as he has aired then many time before with no real acknowledgment of any progress - I think we all had some trust issues with regards i3e's ability to deliver in the past. For many these are quickly receding day by day as progress is being made.
Jimbo goes a step further and questions the Integrity of i3e's Management. His criticism has not wavered a jot in 18 months - he could have acknowledged recent progress and maybe tempered it by saying something to the effect of "more to prove due to past failings". Instead he casts a shadow over all i3e's recent announcements with "can management be trusted" and i3e's "less than straight forward Management"
I've never paid much attention to Jimbo's blogs other than his coverage of i3e - I have never seen anything other than a cut and paste of information readily available on the internet with a parting shot at Management. No analysis, no insight - nothing.
Is this correct - David Wall doubling his holding since leaving. If correct its got to be a big vote of confidence.
".....but the key question here is that following the North Sea debacle, can the management really be trusted? More on I3E in the private blog."
The real key question is did he provide anything more in his private blog or is it just the same old innuendo? Were there any real insights or was it just a cut an paste of information already available to us via RNS with his "trust issue" tagged on the end.
Did anyone message him on twitter to find out what he's talking about ?
The 0.16p is the special dividend. The next dividend will be the H1 dividend set at 20-30% of FCF for the period 1st January to 30th June 2021 and will be announced with the interim results in September.
First of all there is no guarantee that the SP will rise into the ex dividend date and fall thereafter - you will have observed that i3e's SP has often not reacted as expected.
Secondly the dividend is only 0.16p per share, i3e often moves up and down by more than this on no news.
Thirdly you would need to look at the upcoming catalysts - I think we could be in for at least 1 or 2 material announcements a month for the forseeable future which could pop up at any time:
2) additional wells - spudding, brought on line or new programs
3) Broker upgrades (or downgrades). WHI has indicated that there is an upgrade to come
4) Oil Price (up or down)
5) Additional media coverage - we've seen Motely Fool recently and the other outlets recently.
6) Additional Institutional buy in (or sale)
In my opinion the path of least resistance points towards a higher SP in the future and you would run the risk of not being able to get back at the price you exited all for a theoretical gain of 0.16p per share !
I agree - they have delivered (and more) on everything they said since the re-negotiation of the loan notes.
The ALLEDGED "trust issues" date back to Liberator - press him - I'm pretty sure that he wont be able to provide anything substantive and the issues will amount to nothing more than his own personal view.
Going off topic again - attached article on Doc Jones's favorite child. Just to re-iterate - I do own and bought purely off the back of Doc Jones's research and the back story - I have no expertise really to evaluate the technical stuff like ore grades etc but I do like the story.
*Warning* though to anyone who might be looking at it - take note of the court case in the article. The Doc thinks that the verdict is in the bag and indeed they have already won one similar judgement in Spain - but who knows what the Spanish Justice system will come up with !
Tomhuk2000 / JustBe,
Thank you - when I could access his twitter comments, his posts were all cut and paste of available articles - no original insight imo except for his ramble on "trust issues" and the "North Sea Debacle"
I'm all for a Contrarian viewpoint though to test the investment thesis and see what we may be missing. If you are interested to find out what these "trust issues" are - why not send him a message on twitter and see whether you can get a straight answer out of him.
I cannot access the text - could you kindly post.
From your summary though it is the same old story - "trust issues" - when I pressed him about this he said that they had lied - its all out there, you just have to read up. I asked him to be more specific and he would not.
I'm pretty sure he lost money - the trust issues I believe relate to the failure of liberator. I believe that he felt as some other investors felt that i3e over egged Liberators chances of success.
I'm also interested hearing what he has to say - he was always overly negative and posted some information that had no factual basis imo. I recall him accusing i3e Management of lying - when I repeatedly asked him to provide the basis for his comments (which he would not or could not - dont know which) - he blocked me !! I think he lost money on i3e although he claims that not to be case.
Would you be kind enough to post his comments as do not have access to his blog.
Nothing we haven't already heard but good to see on a different website / outlet.
One thing that occurred to me whilst reading this - the two wells being drilled in the Wapit area for 175 boepd (presumably 87 each well) - given that they reportedly have drilling sites with potential far greater than 87 boepd, what is the treason for selecting this site. I'm sure that i3e have a good reason - I just don't know what it is.
I understand the concept of the bird in the hand. Hypothetically - say we reach 20p plus in the next 12 months and we still have the prospect of putting Serenity into production and an additional 10-15k boepd of production from Simonette / Clearwater - would you not be tempted to take your original steak off the table and let the rest play out ?
You asked a question on land rights and applicable laws. I 100% agree that that from what I have read including from you that assets on SoA lands have an advantage over competing projects that may be on Federal Land or require access through Federal lands for roads and pipelines etc.
A definite tick in the box for PANR and its SP especially since Alaska's economy is so heavily reliant on Oil. However, Alaksa is not immune to the effects of climate change and will have to adapt in the years ahead - what this will mean in terms of laws and regulation- who knows ! As a scholar of Law and Constitutional Law - I thought you may be interested in this:
"The Supremacy Clause of the Constitution of the United States (Article VI, Clause 2), establishes that the Constitution, federal laws made pursuant to it, and treaties made under its authority, constitute the "supreme Law of the Land", and thus take priority over any conflicting state laws. It provides that state courts are bound by, and state constitutions subordinate to, the supreme law. However, federal statutes and treaties are supreme only if they do not contravene the Constitution.."
You mentioned the potential reserves at Serenity. I3e have not really mentioned it recently - however, I do recall in a POD cast about a year ago that Majid stated that Clearwater could have similar company making upside to Serenity.
If you look at Doc's report - he has had a stab at estimating Clearwater's reserves and puts them at 111 mmbbl to 222 mmbbl recoverable. Needs to be appraised of course, but as i3e start drilling , I think your going to chunky incremental additions to reserves over the coming months.
Seems like we are starting to get more coverage - would not be surprised to see them add to their small cap portfolio watch list:
Dividend - I think that the special dividend was paid out at a rate higher than 30% of free cash flow. A question was asked and the response from i3e was that you could not assume that the special dividend was 20-30% of Q1 FCF. Subsequently i3e have declared it a "special dividend". This is what I come up with for H1 & H2:
Special Dividend - 0.16p per share on a quarterly basis (0.32p half yearly)
H1 Dividend - 0.23p (0.12p per quarter for comparison)
H2 Dividend - 0.40p (0.2p per quarter for comparison)
As then add on incremental production - the dividend should grow quite rapidly.