Member Info for tonynorstrom1

We’re really lucky to have James on this BB - no blatant ramping, no BS just pure insight and years of experience in the Industry - it’s like having your own Investment Adviser!

As always James - many thanks for the brilliant updates.

"This pipeline project cost is estimated at 50 Billion dollars so I can understand the important detail that must go into the contracts which could take some time to agree on..."

I've see this repeated multiple time including in the media and its incorrect - this is the cost for the full project including the LNG Plant. The pipeling in still eye wateringly expensive but is currently estimated at $13B

The danger with these pipeline projects particularly in North America is that many of them run significantly over budget.

James - where's your matches - FFS light the touch paper - what are you waiting for man?

In my view Sprout - no point predicting an SP 9-12 months out when we are expecting news on a farm out in the next couple of months.. When we get past that - we should have a good idea what PANR has to work with and where the SP could head

I did have AI run through a number of scenario's to come up an SP forecast on the outcome of a farm out - it spat out 18p to 45p on a range of scenarios. Obviously could be less in the case that we dont manage a farm-out or it could be more but 18 to 45p would be my bet with a likely outcome somewhere around the mid point.

I agree Sprout that current Oil Prices should not make a difference since valuation models include FUTURE cash flows - but if you've followed the stock - then clearly the PANR share price does react to the Price of Oil - its clear

Hands up who thought James would have lit the touch paper first thing this morning and we would be seeing rockets.

Friday nights news on the House Hearings were of course tempered by the potential Iran Peace deal and the fall in price of oil - however, I thought we would still see some rockets !

Part 5:

In short, the Senate is likely to pass HB 381, but probably with amendments to address fiscal and community concerns. The governor’s strong support makes outright rejection unlikely.

So says Copilot !

Part 4:

What are the chances of the Senate passing the same bill?

The Alaska Senate has not yet voted on HB 381, but hearings are scheduled in the Senate Finance Committee this week. While the House passed the bill overwhelmingly, the Senate is expected to scrutinize it more closely, meaning passage is possible but not guaranteed.

Factors Affecting Senate Passage:

1) Governor’s Influence: Dunleavy is pushing hard for the bill, even vetoing other legislation to prioritize this pipeline tax measure. His backing increases chances of Senate approval.

2) Senate Finance Committee Role: Chair Bert Stedman has emphasized detailed hearings with input from the Department of Revenue, Natural Resources, and Law. This suggests senators want to fully vet fiscal impacts before voting.

3) Revenue Concerns: The bill reduces property tax revenue by about 85%, raising concerns among some senators about long-term fiscal stability for municipalities.

4) Political Dynamics: The House vote (34–5) shows strong bipartisan support, but the Senate historically takes a more cautious approach to large-scale fiscal changes.

Likely Scenarios

1) Pass with amendments - chances - Moderate to High - Senate may add safeguards for municipalities or adjust the volumetric tax rate.

2) Straight passage - chances - Moderate - Possible if governor’s pressure and House momentum carry over.

3) Delay or rejection - chances - Low to Moderate - Could happen if senators feel revenue risks outweigh benefits, especially for local government

Part 3:

Risks and Trade-offs:

1) Revenue Loss: Local governments could lose billions in property tax revenue over time.

2) Uncertainty: The bill does not guarantee pipeline construction; developers still need final investment decisions and agreements with suppliers and buyers.

3) Energy Security: Supporters argue the project will provide long-term reliable energy and economic transformation for Alaska. Critics warn of potential overestimation of benefits.

Part 2:

Context and Implications:

1) Pipeline Project: The Alaska LNG project proposes an 800-mile pipeline to deliver North Slope gas domestically by 2029 and to Asian markets by 2031. Estimated cost: $45–55 billion.

2) Economic Rationale: Developers argue the tax break is essential to make the project economically viable in global energy markets. Without it, the pipeline is considered uneconomic.

3) Political Landscape: While the House showed strong bipartisan support, the Senate remains cautious, with some lawmakers concerned about risks to state finances and consumers.

Part 1:

What the Bill Does:

1) Property Tax Reduction: Cuts property taxes on the pipeline project by about 85%, replacing them with a volumetric tax based on gas shipped.

2) Revenue Impact: Local governments and the state would forego about $800 million per year in property tax revenue if the pipeline is built. However, the state expects to collect $600–700 million annually from royalties, corporate income taxes, and production taxes.

3) Safeguards: Includes provisions to ensure affordable energy for Alaskans, such as a cap on gas prices for Southcentral Alaska residents.

4) Community Support: Establishes impact funds for local governments affected by construction and allocates money to rural energy projects

Yes Sean - a ridiculous statement - no one owns as many shares as James. All we know is that James hold close to but not more than 30% of the Company otherwise he would have had to make a mandatory offer to us small shareholders under rule 9 of the takeover code.

Anyway - enough nonsense - good news as reported by Scott - will be interesting to see how the share reacts this morning after the little pop in the afternoon.

I am currently sitting at my largest holder ever in terms of number of shares. Its been a great share to trade in an out of though im not a trader. Will be looking to reduce my exposure at some point - hopefully at a profit.

Good luck to all holders particularly long term holders.

This morning at 1.54am:

“Definitely backing a winner here . Wishing all genuine holders great health and happiness . Stay kind , humble and be nice to each other . Happy Days 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀”

Nice sentiments James – pity its just that and not real values – bit like your shares. What happened with humbleness on the other days:

9 Jun 10am:

“Can we stop the verbal diarrhoea. This was a great move by our chairman . The company is in great hands . Perfect opportunity to top up on these dips . For those who are crying like a baby , grow up and importantly Man Up you bar stewards !!!”

5 Jun 13.03:

“Slicer I’ve got to be careful what I say on this board . Totally reject your nonsensical BS . Keep dreaming sunshine . I’m in and your out , ta ta 👏👏”

5 June 10.03:

I’m getting green Gremlins and I think there is an inept , incompetent, delusional individual who is upset and disappointed in the director purchase . He’s obviously Short and now has to pay more to close his position . I abhor vermin/ trash and scatty individuals who have no purpose on these boards other than to spread misinformation and chaos . Go away ‼️‼️‼️‼️

Cbaron - Siggins is short - I would suggest putting him on ignore with James !

Siggins - give it a rest Siggins - "Long / Short" - thats all you've got and who gives a hoot and plus there's no "we" - it's all YOU!

Siggins at it again !!!

Aside from your silly post below - on another BB a little earlier:

"Punter 1234,are you short hex?"

I agree Ezhik - he should back up his comments.

When anyone try's to keep it real and take a balanced view of where were at - they get jumped on. When James posts rubbish like the post below and most of his other posts - he gets a free pass and hundreds of likes.

Come on James lad - elaborate on you post !

Good morning James.

Siggins you tit - my post didnt express any happiness or sadness with the sp action - merely noted that the rocket had flamed out. I almost certainly own more shares than you.