Member Info for tonynorstrom1

At 14,000 bbl per day and Brent at $75 - the SP is trading at around x3 FCF

At 20,000 bbl which they should get back to and $85 Brent and assuming a modest increase in multiple to 3.5x FCF - 75p !!

Production falls, high spend on erosion control and cancellation of the dividend have all take their toll - all 3 will be addressed this year

In your opinion Squirrel - I've read it - thanks for sharing but it actually doesn't say very much and if your paying attention and looked who wrote it - the guys had more gigs than a struggling jazz musician.

He's worked for numerous brokerages, followed several companies I've been invested in and I've never found his commentary to be that insightful.

Part 2:

Why 30–50p is reasonable in that case. Re‑rating math (simplified)

Current: ~10p = “huge resource, huge doubt”

Post‑farm‑in: re‑rates to “huge resource, credible path”

On AIM, credible de‑risking events in resource stocks commonly deliver:

2×–3× immediately

3×–5× within weeks if volume confirms belief

Pantheon has already done this in prior cycles, reaching ~70p in 2025 on less concrete derisking than a full farm‑in. [lse.co.uk]

Expected 1‑month trading range (optimistic case):

Scenario SP range Market sentiment

Good farm‑in..........................................18–25p.....................Relief rally

Very strong farm‑in................................30–40p....................Structural re‑rate

Best‑case / momentum blow‑off...........45–50p..............FOMO + volumes

Above ~50p, the market tends to pause and demand flow results / pilot data.

Why not instantly back to 70p+?

Even in a perfect announcement:

No production yet

Oil price risk remains

Alaska execution risk still exists

Institutionals scale in over time, not day one

So the market usually:

Prices in probability

Waits for delivery

Expands multiples later

Key risks (even in this scenario)

Farm‑in seen as asset‑specific, not company‑wide

Terms include step‑outs / back‑in rights that mute valuation

Broader oil market sell‑off caps upside

Bottom line

Most optimistic, credible scenario:

~30–50 GBp one month post‑farm‑in

That equates to:

£435–725m market cap

Still conservative relative to multi‑billion‑barrel headline resources

Fully consistent with AIM re‑ratings seen historically for de‑risked energy assets

Part 1

Question: "What would be the SP 1 month after a farm-in under the most optimistic scenario for Pantheon resources"

Short answer (scenario-based, not advice):

"Under a very optimistic “textbook” farm‑in outcome, Pantheon Resources’ share price one month after announcement could plausibly trade in the 30–50 pence (GBp) range — roughly 3×–5× the recent ~10–11p level — if the deal is perceived as transformational and de‑risking. This would still be below prior cycle highs (~70p in 2025), but dramatically re‑rate near‑term sentiment.

Below is a clear, structured logic for how that range is reached and what assumptions it relies on:"

Starting point (current context):

"Current SP (late March 2026): ~10–11p [lse.co.uk]

Market cap: ~£150–165m with ~1.45bn shares outstanding [lse.co.uk]

Asset base is large but high‑risk: Ahpun + Kodiak, with >1.6bn bbl 2C across projects but no FID yet [marketbeat.com]

Management has repeatedly referenced farm‑out discussions, especially for Kodiak [proactivei...estors.com]"

What “most optimistic” farm‑in means

For the market to seriously re‑rate PANR within one month, the farm‑in would need to tick all of these boxes:

1) Counterparty quality : Major or top‑tier mid‑cap (e.g. Conoco‑style credibility, not a microcap)

Seen as capable of financing development through to FID

2) Asset scope: Applies to Kodiak (not just a small tranche of Ahpun).Confirms independent validation of recoverable barrels

3) Economic terms ;Typical “optimistic” structure:

Partner earns 30–50% WI

Funds 100% of next appraisal / pilot + seismic

Implied valuation that clearly exceeds current market cap

Example:

If a partner pays US$150–250m carry / equity value for 40% of Kodiak, the market instantly back‑solves a US$375–625m PDO‑risked project value — far higher than today’s implied valuation.

4) Funding overhang removed: No near‑term dilution risk

Clear line of sight to:

Flow tests

Pilot

Pre‑FID engineering

This is psychologically critical for AIM investors.

I wouldn't want to be out of this over the weekend ! Oh f@ck - I didnt just say that did I - I hang my head in shame !

🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

"Panr would hold back a positive RNS because the news would likely spike the sp which may sound good to us but it can complicate ongoing negotiations by forcing reassessment of potentially agreed on valuations delaying a deal that could potentially be near to completion."

This doesnt sound right at all - I have to agree with the Wookie here. First of all they have to report any material news as soon as it becomes known - they have to - there's no dispute. Secondly, why would they not do it even if they had the choice - your reasoning is none sensical - PANR is crying out for good news - farm-in discussions or not ! I dont see any complication - good news would focus potential farm-in partners in getting a deal done.

Bricks - as Del Boy would say - "oh behave ! Don't tell me you ain't winding me up-because you are sunshine!"

"In the oil industry, "farm-in" and "farm-out" describe opposite sides of the same deal:..........." - If you understand this then you're making progress.

"The difference is significant because it signals whether PANR is expanding its portfolio or reducing its exposure"

I don't think it is that significant because in our case everyone here except you was clear that PANR were looking to farm-out. Context and what was actually said matters - for example if they said "we are looking at a farm-in" this would not necessarily be incorrect i.e. they are actually farming out but looking for another party to "farm in". This is a nuance that you don't appear to have appreciated.

"Im my eyes PANR are expanding their portfolio...............put that in your pipe and smoke it"

That's probably not going to make much sense to a lot of people except you - if you have a portfolio of assets like acreage or property and you sell a portion of it - then your portfolio is getting smaller. You might be making the remainder more valuable but still your portfolio is getting smaller.

Hey Bricks - are the results of the pressure build up test dependent on whether its a farm-in or farm- out ? I would like to know the answer to that before I splash out on any more shares!

I did add a few more shares - not many - 6000 along with adding a few more in Serica & Surge Energy Inc. Sold 60% of my shares in Gran Tierra (GTE) that have more than doubled in the last month - some will remember that these were part of the non-cash portion of the take over of i3e - finally in profit !

That's about the most sensible thing you have ever said on here and it's not much!

Max and the new Chairman need to show us the pudding !

I made a small top up about 2 minutes ago 30,000 shares - not because i'm uber bullish - just averaging down against my better judgement.

Hope that this dispels the lies from a couple of posters here accusing me of shorting including Oil No Barron my Ar$e

Give it a rest BrickSA - you dont know what your talking about

Mr Soggins you coconut - again I'm not attacking the company - please to point to where I have - this is false news that you are spreading along with your completely unfounded accusation of shorting.

And there is no need for me to complain to PANR - they have already taken action and replaced several key players including the chairman.

Mr Soggins,

i'm not attacking the company - my pevious summary of news flow is factual as is the quote from the company itself where they state performance has not been strong - you may not like the chairmans words but thats what he said.

As for trying to fool anyone - i would suggest that is better directed at theoilbarron - what ive stated with regards to valuation is just common sense which you and the oilbarron seem to be lacking.

Lets do a sense check, sometimes called a smell test to root out bul1$hit.

Our current market cap is a little under £130m - so in theory someone could buy the whole Company for £130m and take on the debt.

your suggesting that someone is going to fund 2 wells (about $70m) , gives us $65m in cash (not clear whether you were talking pounds or dollars) and then we get to keep 75% of the Company. It sounds too good to be true doesnt it.?

Theoilbarron,

i agree there is potential opportunity at 9p but the rest of your email demonstates how little you know (imo) or your a massive pumper.

if youve seen a few farmouts for companies in a similar position to PANR - then you would probably have an inkling that what you've outlined is wildly optimistic and unlikely.

i think is keeping something in the range of 25% for a free carry on 1 or 2 wells is probably much closer to the mark and maybe a little bit of cash.

Mr Saggins - its tonynorstrom !

How big is my short position - I have never shorted a stock not least PANR which first bought in 2021 and then upped my holding in 2023. I have added a few more as recently as February. I have posted about these buys at the time so its not new.

For you to accuse anyone of shorting is a very transparent attempt to rubbish anything that doesnt align with your agenda Mr Soggins !

"What I fail to see as productive is the constant negativity you two spout about your mythical holdings" , If your looking for someone to pump PANR for you in the face of what has been a barrage of poor news recently - then I can see how you would fail to see it as productive . However, if you had any balance you would undoubtedly be less critical. Lets pull our heads from out our backsides for a minute and review the news flow / events over the last 3-4 months and whether this supports a positive or negative view

1) SP has fallen from over 20p in December to 9p now and from much higher if you go back further - Not a lot to be positive there

2) The misleading information on not needing to raise capital and then doing an about turn - not a lot to be positive there either

3) Dubhe has completely underwhelmed and now an about turn on continuing the flow testing - negative ! !!!

4) "Our progress over the past year in particular has not been strong" - from David Hobbs himself - absolutely nothing positive here.

5) Investor Communications poor in the opinion of the new Chairman !

6) Max Easely - got to be question marks over him - all the above has happened on his watch

Now let's look at the positives over the last 3 - 4 months - hmmm - I'm struggling to think of too many. The new Chairman I think is a great addition but that's on the back of acknowledging the previous team have not delivered / failed - David Hobbs also came in to great fanfare. Perhaps you can help me out here Oilbaron and demonstrate why those holding a somewhat negative view have got it completely wrong and your right.

Theoilbarron - you're a ramper and not a very informed one at that with your wild forecasts. Don't confuse a bit of balance with negativity.

And as for not holding any shares - wtf do you know - as a matter of fact, I do hold shares and probably considerably more than both you and James. Does not mean that I have to ramp and try to influence the decisions of others with lies. The "truth will out" as they say any nonsense spread by you, James or anyone else will not impact the sp.

"Why are you worried?. I’m not"

You say that as though anyone attaches any weight to you opinion - I dont think anyone does.

"oversold - undervalued - lots of oil - ive topped up again" - is all you've got and once you said it for about the 50th time - people have nodded off already 3 months back !