RE: SP Target5 Apr 2026 13:33
Year………….Brent Avg USD…………Avg (bopd)……..Avg SP (GBp)……..Net Cash YE (USD m)….2P(mmbbl)…….PDP(mmbbl)
2022....................101......................12,000...................30............................65.........................103....................35
2023.....................83.......................14,300...................45............................91.........................108....................41
2024.....................78.......................17,733...................42...........................103........................113.7.................52
2025.....................69.......................19,500...................36...........................139........................110.2.................37
2026 YTD*.............92.......................12,000 (guided)…...29...........................120–130*................110.2*................37*
Bull Case
1) Current forecasts are for $75 Bent for full year 2026 - this could be too low in my opinion. Analysts such as Energy Aspects are currently forecasting $75 to $80 – Base Case
2) Some analysts believe 2026 Company production guidance is too conservative and actual could be in the 13,000 to 14,000 range. Company are forecasting to be back up at around 20,000 by end of year
3) PDP is flat to growing especially factoring in write downs due to lower oil prices over the last several years - strong reserve replacement considering capital discipline. PTAL should be able to maintain or grow reserves going forward. RLI is reasonably strong.
4) Opportunity to reinstate a dividend or commence buybacks by end of year.
Bear Case
1) Water Cut could constrain Oil Production and FCF
2) Casing Leaks could constrain production if not managed properly
3) Erosion Control Project costs could escalate beyond previous projections
Conclusion
45p average per 2024 / 2025 are easily achievable by year end in in my opinion depending upon oil prices which currently look like being similar or in excess of 2024 . Target of 60p or more in sight with strong execution and oil prices - balance of risks to the upside.