Member Info for tonynorstrom1

Having been in the Industry - I assume you can explain which "conditions precedent" will prevent them from reaching commerciality.

If you talking funding - yes they need lots of cash which they have already outlined. I understand that they were previously close to getting the funding but ultimately it looked like the potential lenders were looking for a "show me well" which is the purpose of Dubhe1. If the flow test is good - my bet is that funding should not be a problem.

"wordsmithery" - not directed at Scot126 specifically but in defense of the Company - they have been criticized by some on here for not providing enough updates and now it looks like they may be criticized for issuing an unnecessary update. Max has been nothing if consistent in his updates - perhaps its just a question of understanding the new CEO's communication style which appears to be matter of fact and not to over egg any news which is surely preferable to what happened at Megrez and prior events.

If the final flow test result is positive - I'm sure all will be forgiven - if it falls outside of the "envelope" - what's the criticism of management going to be then?

A good interview that casts a more favorable light on an RNS which on first sight appeared to underwhelm. The SP should recover somewhat I would expect.

Another thing that has puzzled me is that so far they have chosen not talked about well productivity. When I think back to Megrez - one of the first things they highlighted was strong flow rates albeit turning out to be almost entirely water.

Consistent I think with what Ai had to say "This is neither outright good nor outright bad — it’s a neutral‑to‑cautiously positive update" or as David Hobbs put it "within the envelope"

Part 3

📊 Balanced View

This is neither outright good nor outright bad — it’s a neutral‑to‑cautiously positive update.

• Good because Dubhe‑1 is showing earlier oil onset and stable production trends.

• Caution because volumes are modest, gas is dominant, and commercial flow is not yet proven.

👉 In short: It’s a promising operational step, but not yet a commercial breakthrough. The real test will be once water recovery passes 50–60% and representative oil rates are measured.

Part 2

⚠️ Caution Flags

• Oil volumes remain small: The update emphasizes “modest” oil production. Commerciality hinges on whether volumes scale up after full clean‑up.

• Gas dominance: Rising gas could overshadow oil, leading to high gas‑oil ratios that challenge economic viability.

• Uncertain clean‑up timeline: Multi‑stage frac means staggered clean‑up; representative oil flow rate may take longer to establish.

• Still in clean‑up phase: No definitive oil rate yet — so investors and operators can’t benchmark commercial flow until more water is recovered.

AI gets a bit of stick here but in the absence of much analysis from our resident experts here - I thought worth posting:

✅ Positives

• Earlier oil onset: Oil appeared at ~40% water recovery vs. ~50% in Alkaid‑2. That’s encouraging — suggests Dubhe‑1 may be cleaning up faster.

• Consistent oil volumes: Since 19th November, oil has been steady (even if modest). Stability is better than sporadic spikes.

• Strong gas production: Gas volumes are increasing steadily, which indicates reservoir energy and connectivity.

• Multi‑stage completion: More fracked stages could mean higher eventual oil contribution once all zones clean up.

“A flare equals confirmed flow — not theoretical, not “encouraging shows”, but COMMERCIALY MEANINGFUL gas/oil reaching surface.”

You didn’t mean to say this did you Stas - this is a whole pile of Horse Manure and you know better.

A flare means gas and at the prices they are talking about - gas is significantly sub-economic without oil.

All we know about the oil is “intermittent oil” as of the 12 Nov 25. Early stages we know (20% fracking fluid recovery) - but that’s all we know. The conference was one day later (13 Nov) and it’s now the 28th Nov.

Personally I have high expectations / hope but that’s all it is - the market which we all know is not always right is lukewarm to say the least.

Mr droberts obviously didn’t pay attention to what happened at Megrez - well productivity / flow rates were very good - problem was that

It didn’t flow any oil / gas.

Again I’m not suggesting there is a problem - but the well needs to prove up commercial rates of oil and gas - simples.

I slightly disagree also - I didn’t say that Max knew more or less than what he revealed in the RNS - what I think I said or tried to say was that he was unlikely to have known much more on the 13th Nov than he did on the 12th regardless of what he said in the RNS or conference. The RNS and the conference were broadly similar which is what you would expect otherwise he would be guilty of releasing material non-public information correctly.

I’m not saying the conference was not positive - just that the RNS was dated the 12 Nov, the conference was 1 day later and it’s now the 27th Nov. Max would have know little more about the flow test from the 12th to the 13th - so for posters to say it’s “huge” - there either talking smack or taking smack!

Squirrel - perhaps you can explain - I don’t get it?

Not great but the volume is fairly low so I don’t think it means much.

Leesteauk:

"I'm saying nothing because quite simply I would not want any of you haters to profit from anything I say." - you've had nothing sensible to say yet so I think the chances of anyone profiting from your pearls of wisdom are slim to none - so no worries there.

I think most are just hoping you deliver on your promise to disappear!

Leesteuk - I agree - a fool and someone that appears to mislead - you previously said you had sold out and “we won’t see you around here anyone” - now claiming to hold over 1m shares - did you forget?

Supersport - the market has voted and currently thinks you are talking rubbish.

The only concern is how much the well flows which I agree is huge - however if it meets or exceeds expectations - then the sp is likely to be multiples of its current value - if it disappoints I could easily see it going back to 12p - imo only

Ezhik - flaring means gas - so whilst you are by obviously focused on John Travolta’s tight pants - the rest of us are waiting for results and any indications including flaring - and we’re not talking about Saturday night fever!

I am also a little surprised with where the SP sits. The RNS was positive, as expected and with no negative indications. The tone was a little low key and surprising to be lumped together with news about an industry conference.

I guess the SP is a reflection that flow testing is not a slam dunk and the SP would probably move sharply lower if we get a poor result - confidence in a good result was not helped by the low key RNS. The RNS I think could be a reflection of Max wanting to under promise and over deliver especially as PANR got it the other way round with the previous well.

Supersport - I agree with your sentiments there. This is what the previous RNS stated:

"Thus far, only 20% of the injected water has been recovered with steady gas production and intermittent production of light oil. It is anticipated that the well will CONTINUE TO CLEAN UP IN THE COMING WEEKS before a representative rate can be determined from the reservoir."

So taking the RNS literally then we should expect an update no earlier than around the 26th Nov which ties in roughly with recovering around 40% of the frack fluid by which time you would expect PANR to start seeing representative flow rates - could be a little shorter or a little longer.

I would say that we are still on track to get a good well result although anything is possible. We've got oil and we've got gas - only remaining question is the flow rates which I think we'll find out this week.

Mr Siggins - the Company has already told you :

“Thus far, only 20% of the injected water has been recovered with steady gas production and intermittent production of light oil.”

So there is flaring and apparently a reasonable qty of gas. There’s also oil but only “intermittent” which is not unusual for this stage of the clean up. So the key appears to be how much oil and at what flow rate.

Good find - it does appear to be very significant that Glenfarne are prepared to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on "early works" including procurement of pipe prior to FID. Obviously the market has reacted to something and this appears to be it - I might have expected an even bigger jump on the back of this - it will be interesting to see how the market moves today.