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MTEC booked more sales in their H2 2026 period than it executed, so how are they "relying only on backlog"

They have to maintain the trend, but that is the same every year.

Horrible raise, and HUD has really let down my portfolio this year; however, I won't let the initial emotional reaction consume me. I have concerns over how previous funding was concluded, given that management would have understood they needed more in the future. I also hate the fact that the share price has been dragged down so hard, whether deliberate or not, which means this raise is at rock-bottom pricing.

But I also recognise that with these funds in play, the Huddled team now can deliver a better return for me than 0.4p, so I will give them that chance, but it is their last chance.

Putting my logical hat on, I would say that ATRI has committed to an equity investment in Invinity that supports manufacturing expansion, and to justify it, they are financing a large-scale battery project(s) in the UK.

This is my theory only.

I also note that there have been at least 9x £25k buys today. For me, that's not PI money.

Shane McBee post on LinkedIn for the India Storage Week 2026 taking place next month. Peter Strassheim, Invinity regional director, will be speaking.

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7475136840786907138/

Note the comment from Invinity.

"We're looking forward to the conference and connecting with Indian businesses, utilities, and power producers to advance the deployment of proven and performing vanadium flow batteries in the country. Please reach out if you'll be attending and would like to connect with us and our partner, ATRI Energy Transition, at the event."

"Our partner ATRI Energy Transition."

Makes one question: Is it logical that ATRI could be investing that £300m into any other UK battery provider or projects that don't involve Invinity, especially when they have no other investment in an established battery manufacturer? Taking that one step further, if the Invinity share of the project win in the Cap and Floor was c. £75m, then at £300m, the funds are highly likely for another project(s). So the question is, when does this all begin to be talked about?

Longspur #IES note out.

Stand out points from them.

"While Ofgem has specifically referenced the benefits of vanadium flow batteries in supporting the selected project, for this exercise the key wider and social impacts including local sourcing were capped at 8%, less ambitious than industrial strategy via the typical local content support seen in the EU or US. Window 2 will be announced next year when the scheme may be better aligned with the government’s industrial strategy and clean job targets."

Further insight into why Frontier Power believes it can successfully challenge the current decision list.

"Ofgem has changed values submitted for projects using engineering advice based on currently operational projects. This is potentially prejudicial to Stream 2 technologies, which are developing rapidly. Frontier Power is challenging decisions where this has occurred. The developer has stated that it is confident that this will lead to further projects being included in the final awards."

That sounds to me like early Endurium production costs were applied when up to 66% further savings had already been achieved. No wonder the pure VRFB-related projects scored so badly.

Morning all.

Broker notes thoughts and quotes from my end.

Some very interesting points in the #IES Cananccord broker note released today.

On what they call the Cap and Floor "Evaluation oddities."

"Three things jump out in the minded-to evaluation:

The cap on round-trip efficiency for VFBs at 69%, far below Invinity Endurium efficiency."

(Invinity states on its website that Endurium can deliver upto 80%).

"The 25-year lifetime for Li-ion facilities and constant capacity, which combined are highly implausible, in our view, and the supplementary market return framework."

"These are Invinity's clients' battles to fight, but we suspect the final determination may significantly differ from this initial minded-to."

This is the really interesting part, given what Frontier Power has already said about challenging the initial assessment and being confident that more of their projects will be included.

What's also interesting is how tender participants don't see this initial list as being immovable. The market clearly and understandably does.

Despite the disappointment, "Frontier Legacy, the one project including Invinity VFBs making the first cut, would result in an order around 8x bigger than any previous Invinity order."

"Invinity currently has orders, plus its expected FlexBase work, which underpins more than 80% of our forecast revenue out to the end of 2028; this excludes the 260 MWh Frontier Legacy project we expect to be in the cap-and-floor. We continue to see Invinity getting more competitive in tenders as it drives down upfront capex and increases its installed base; we are making no changes to numbers with this note."

"UK grid-connected is just one utility-scale battery market for Invinity. Even in the UK there are large, live commercial & industrial prospects, and elsewhere there is more. As Invinity highlighted on Friday, long-duration storage is a large, fast-growing market globally, in which the UK is a small element, and where Invinity is competitive in multiple ways, with customers with widely varying requirements. We continue to see multiple large-scale prospects."

Their TP is currently at 50p.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/2071485193207083395?s=20

I did a bit of research on Field Energy earlier this year as part of my review of Cap and Floor. As far as I could see they have previously used Envision Group for the battery supply which is a Chinese company.

I do wonder what their sales pitch was in relation to local content or are we witnessing a scheme that doesn’t care for such things?

I also find myself questioning what the true purpose was for this cap and floor program. Did these lithium-ion projects really need a floor to achieve FID or were they simply using it to jump the grid connection queue? If so then Ofgems financial assessment is flawed because it favours projects that demonstrate that they would lean on this floor the least. If so then what was the point of running the scheme in the first place?

I am not overly concerned, Camkite. I have been involved with Invinity at various times since the ReDt and Avalon merger, which was actually inspired by the Bushveld Minerals leadership team. But my involvement with the tech goes back to c. 2015. Back then, the promise was that VRFBs would be competing at scale by c. 2021. The reality is that it has come c. 5 years later. But I do feel strongly that it has now arrived, be it that we are still in the early stages of market realisation.

Flexbase was the first key insight. Cap and Floor has slightly undermined what is a fragile understanding and belief. But Flexbase was not a one-off and today's RNS indicates that very strongly.

Like many other holders, I wanted them to land the big one with Cap and Floor, but what's most important is that their contracted backlog is beginning to build, driven by ever-growing project sizes. I expect more projects to come through before YE, and it won't take much to drive that market realisation and appreciation to the next level.

They will need finance at some point, and I am sure that is playing on some investors' minds, but I don't see it as a big deal vs what it will unlock. Last September's strategic investment demonstrated what is possible there.

With the confirmation that Invinity just took a large step to securing 260MWh of work, this is a rather bizarre situation now, market pricing-wise.

It's a 65MW, 8-hour duration, so it's 520 MWh, not 65 MWh.

The capacity reserve was theoretical until projects were won to justify it.

I wonder if the likes of Hagshaw will look to proceed without a grid connection in order to avoid the grid connection queues.

Correct Seewhat.

There was bound to be a sell-off on this news, and many like myself wanted much more from this tender. But when all is said and done, Invinity has won another project, and it is a very decent-sized one compared to previous achievements. We do need to see what the final share is but it is still a good result.

Full list available here.

Frontier Legacy is the only VRFB-related project, but at 65MW and 8-hour duration, it is a very nice project. I can find no details on the exact share of technology. I had read previously that they are 50/50, but perhaps someone else knows.

https://consult.ofgem.gov.uk/energy-generation/ldes-window-1-minded-to-decision/supporting_documents/ldes-window-1-minded-to-decisions-consultationpdf

Wake up, everyone, the decision list has been published.

16 projects are being backed with VRFB listed, but no zinc as far as I can see.

I can't find it or access it yet, but Invinity have at least 1x 50MW (400MWh) battery project in Wales.

Hopefully, they have another one in Scotland, but that's not a bad start.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/market-news/ofgem-boosts-long-duration-storage/17658296

Thanks for this grsshaw.

An American market needs American people to sell Invinity in a very American way.

I doubt the wider market will take the time to listen to this, but if they did, then they would hear a great summary as to why VRFBs have a big place in the market and why Invinity is the No.1 company selling them. The manufacturer of the largest VRFBs in the UK, Europe, North America, and Australia.

When talking about US expansion, he stated domestic production in Q4 2026. Interesting.

Did you notice his reference to the communities not wanting to have lithium or those that want a proven technology that doesn't stand a chance of having a thermal event?

How to talk about the Vaca Dixon Power Center Project without saying the actual name.

The insight on the ability to triple-stack per acre was also very interesting.

Invinity securing 1-hour duration projects from lithium-ion due to fire risk concerns is yet another game-changer.

Great digging, guys.

@grsshaw, at 457MWh that is a very nice-looking project.

@economist2023, thank you for the added information. May I ask where you found that Artha Bharat are friends with Atri?

This quote from #IES CEO Jonathan Marren now takes on even more importance.

"We have very supportive strategic shareholders in both the National Wealth Fund and, in terms of the strategic Indian investors we brought in in September."

If there is further strategic investment coming from Atri and/or Artha and it involves equity, then why is Artha buying up shares at these sorts of levels?

Lots to ponder.

It's much more significant than that billhunt.

Here is my full X post on the matter.

OK, now this is getting even more interesting for #IES.

Artha Global Opportunities Fund has just increased their stake in Invinity (c. 1m shares by my count).

Artha Bharat Investment Managers IFSC LLP owns that fund.

In September 2025, Invinity received £25m in strategic investment from two entities.

1. Atri Energy Transition Private Limited, which is the £300m investor in "large-scale battery storage projects and advanced manufacturing facilities in the UK" I talked about yesterday.

2. Next Gen Mobility Limited.

"Next Gen is majority owned by Jonathan Keeling, alongside Artha Global Opportunities Fund*."

Both entities are Indian.

The Artha Global Opportunities Fund first declared its initial holding in early June 2025, approximately 3 months before the strategic investment was made.

Now, in the week that Atri announced its £300m of investment and Cap and Floor is due to be announced, they have added further to their holding and at more than twice the price they originally paid.

Smoke, fire, etc etc.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/2069711208387633265?s=20

Ofgem highlighting this event on their social media feed today and making noise about moving from planning to getting infrastructure built.

It offers the perfect backdrop for announcing the Cap and Floor scheme decision list.

https://x.com/ofgem/status/2068242524829782522?s=46&t=6uXiPPBc0pslakpmlxiTnQ

https://londonclimateactionweek.org/?utm_term&utm_content&utm_campaign