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What also needs to be factored in is the fact that the UK system is short of long-duration battery capacity, which is why the projects that win support get to jump the connection queue, which is currently overrun with shorter-duration projects. So even if there were any budget effects, the UK need for this scheme trumps that.

I asked AI to review the Cap and Floor scheme to see if reducing or cancelling it would save the government funds to use elsewhere.

Here is its very clear answer, which for the record, was my position already.

"It is not direct government grant/spending. It is a regulated revenue support mechanism (25-year contracts) administered by Ofgem:

Floor: Guarantees a minimum revenue (set low, mainly to cover debt-service costs) if market revenues (arbitrage, capacity market, etc.) fall short. Any floor payments are recovered via network charges (ultimately passed to electricity consumers/bills), not general taxation.

Cap: Any revenues above a higher threshold are clawed back (shared with or returned to consumers), limiting upside for developers.

The design explicitly aims for consumer protection and net system savings. Government/NESO modelling shows that ~20 GW of LDES could deliver £24 billion in electricity system savings by 2050 (reduced need for expensive gas peakers, better renewable integration, lower bills overall — ~3.5% system cost reduction in central scenarios)."

It is a scheme that not only delivers no direct government costs but actually leads to investment savings later down the line. Any investor that has connected this scheme to the government call for savings on net zero budgets needs to research it more thoroughly.

I think you hit the nail on the head, Xhita, when you said, "There seems to be a real negative spin attempt currently. It's irrelevant to the outcome."

I have just re-read your posts DD77 and now appreciate that I have misunderstood your reference. You seem to be referring to long-duration support in general and not specifically Frontier Power. The rest of my post still applies.

I can find no references to Frontier Power looking to secure grant funding from DESNZ or any other UK government department for its 16 Cap and Floor projects. There is no further LODES programme. That was the name of the £68m Longer Duration Energy Storage (LoDES) Demonstration competition, held back in 2022, in which Invinity won grant funding to build the project that would become Copwood.

Frontier Power instead has initial support from Cerberus, with indications this relationship will build based on Cap and Floor wins.

In May this year, EOS and Cerberus partnered to form Frontier Power USA, giving a strong indication that this funding support and partnership remains strong. Articles demonstrating both these arrangements are included below.

Some in the market may have reacted to the potential cut in net zero funding, but my take is this is more about profit taking after a very healthy initial run in the share price that was trading at just 17p a month ago.

Cap and Floor is looking to back projects that require the least amount of "floor" support. If a project can demonstrate minimal need for financial support, then there is minimal requirement for net zero funds to be applied.

https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/deals/recent-deals/pwc-corporate-finance-advises-frontier-power-on-strategic-partnership-with-cerberus-capital-management.html

https://www.cerberus.com/media/frontier-power-usa-formed-to-accelerate-deployment-of-american-made-long-duration-energy-storage-infrastructure/

Afternoon all,

I don't think I have ever witnessed a share price lose so much value so continuously without some response along the way, especially when progress is coming through.

I think the biggest issue with Huddled at the moment is that there isn't clear enough communication around financial progress and cash reserves to trigger the market to start buying the stock. At the same time, there appears to be a seller who doesn't seem to care what price they receive; they just want out. What that has created is a valuation that factors in no upside potential whatsoever and prices the company as if it's failing.

However, I say appears because there is limited evidence to support the seller argument. Having reviewed the FY report, I note that a decent comparison can be made between the shareholder list on 31st Dec 2025 (page 17) and 1st June 2026 (page 18), but also when including the 22nd March list currently on the Huddled website.

What it firstly shows is that none of the institutional, connected parties or directors have sold any shares this year. What it also shows is that Premier Miton not only still hold their shares but has added (likely in the placing in Feb) to maintain their holding at c. 8%.

What I can see is that one nominee account in particular (Lawshare, which is AJ Bell) has net sales of c. 7.7m shares this year, having, it seems, taken part in the Feb raise. Other than that, there is no significant seller who owned 3% or more of the company since the end of 2025.

So I am back to the communication angle.

From where I am sitting, the company looks to be making good progress with gross profits markedly up in the first 4 months, be it with another reset of the business model taking place. Cash looks a little tight, but how tight it is depends on how much marketing it will take to get them to break even, which I don't think is all that far away now.

From my review, I see no justification for the current valuation but understand why interest is so low.

You've lost me there, DD77, with that LODES angle.

The whole point of the cap-and-floor scheme is to give projects sufficient support pricing to make them viable and so attract debt funding. So there is no need for government grant funding.

Are you perhaps mixing LDES up with LODES?

Cap and Floor decision list confirmed for release this month.

https://x.com/bigbitenow/status/2062070703701037404?s=46&t=6uXiPPBc0pslakpmlxiTnQ

My tuppence worth on funding.

Invinity will inevitably require more funding, and I would expect it to come before the interims are released in Sept. However, I do not expect it to land before we know the full results of the Cap and Floor Scheme. The last round of funding was strategic, and the two parties involved still hold their full investment (as of 24th February 2026). I would not be surprised to see a similar outcome again. Yesterday's excellent news can only help, but a significant win through the Cap and Floor will compound everything, so funding should be secured at a decent strike price relative to the current price.

The US production angle is interesting because it is scheduled for later this year, and I am not writing it off as the next strategic investment avenue. DOE funding remains an option, but I apply a low percentage chance to this until evidence is presented.

We should not forget the upfront working capital commitment from any Frontier Power Cap and Floor project wins, but I believe this comes post-FID, which may be YE26 at best.

I think if/when (I am definitely in the when camp here) Cap and Floor contracts are awarded this summer, Invinity may have sufficient leverage to secure debt facilities. But again, I think FID will be key, and that may not come before early 2027. The same goes for the Flexbase contract in Q1/Q2 2027.

What that says is that the next funding round could be the last in this format, assuming they take in all of FY27 funding requirements.

Other than usual market mechanics and dynamics, I no longer have any concern about their ability to raise funds. Yesterday's announcement put that to bed. Cap and Floor should compound that further. It is now about what form the funding takes. Last Sept demonstrated that Invinity plans well ahead for these things, and I am sure they have planned/pulled together different funding choices for different outcomes. With yesterday's result, they are likely looking at the stronger options more closely.

The protective umbrella over all of this is the fact that Invinity has now announced its arrival on the GWh AI data centre stage, and interest is bound to increase in the stock, and various players will want a piece of the action. So they are in a good place, and any Cap and Floor wins should see their position strengthen even further.

Exciting times.

If US investors pick up on this in the coming days/weeks, then funding is not going to be a concern at all.

Just look at what IQE did despite debt concerns. Invinity is debt-free, and any funds it requires are to deliver massive projects. I am sitting on my hands.

You don't hire a VRFB manufacturer to design such a large battery system on a project already under construction unless you are sure they will be the manufacturer. This is not an electrician. You don't swap these guys out willy-nilly.

Just wait until Cap and Floor lands.

Jackpot!

I thought it, but daren't believe it, mainly because Invinity's pipeline simply didn't indicate anything like this was achievable. To arrive in the data centre space at this time is unbelievable given the wider interest in this sector and how it will be powered.

The share price should motor on this news, and Cap and Floor is still to come.

Great work, thank you.

Great research, thanks Serge_Farrar.

The last update I had was that Nutricircle is moving very soon.

Ok thanks.

Previous reports I have seen said late Q1/early Spring, but it is not uncommon for these things to drift. The recent "Long Duration Electricity Storage: Draft Special Licence Conditions" consultation restated the Summer final contracts goal. They can't be too late, or they will start to put their own 2030 target under pressure.

Thanks, DJW01. May I ask where this Ofgem end-of-May statement comes from?

@cjm682 No one can guarantee you no delays; this is Africa, and we are in the middle of a fuel shortage. But even with all of that, Kefi is a great risk-reward at this stage because the mine is fully financed with $19m of contingencies factored in.

I don't want to see further dilution at this stage, but it should always be measured against what you receive for it.

That said, now is the time to let the mine construction unfold to allow the value of the stock to rise. Once we are 2-3x up from where we are, the question of additional equity for other ideas becomes irrelevant, and that really should only be a maximum of 6-9 months away.

It is not for me to tell you or anyone else what to do with their money, but if I don't have enough trust in management, I don't invest because it is fundamental to any investment. That said, it is also important to establish what maximum pain further dilution could inflict on your investment returns vs the mine being completed. Simply throwing the dilution hat into the ring isn't enough and leads to unnecessary and outweighed burdens.

The biggest risk remains the mine construction itself. That is all that truly matters now.

I'll add one more thought whilst I am here.

The share price doesn't matter one bit to me so long as the mine progresses, and I have no reason to doubt that at this time. The gold price may come under further pressure as the Summer unfolds and inflation concerns linger. But that will change, and everything that is unfolding in the world right now will eventually drive it higher. All Kefi needs to do is stay on track and meet that gold price rise on the other side. That's when the 7-8x my investment back comes into play.

Construction progress news will drive share price appreciation, and whilst we all want to see an update as soon as possible, it is unrealistic to expect regular updates at this stage.

My current view is that we will get an update sometime over the Summer as bulk earthworks unfold, but it may come a little sooner. It won't take much progress to ignite market interest, given the large gap between the current MC and the NPV for the project.

However, I think the real impact comes once Lycopodium civil works are demonstrated (Q4 2026) because that represents rigid infrastructure.

In the early April presentation, we were also told in the Q&A that "the first procurement payments have been paid to fabricators internationally." I took this to be long-lead items. It would be good to have this confirmed, and I am sure this info will come.

This is a fully financed gold mine that is on the road to being constructed, but it requires some patience because it is a long build. Some may feel it's worth investing elsewhere for the time being. Perhaps that is sensible, but right now I consider a 6-9 month wait for potentially 3x my investment to be well worth staying still for. But I am monitoring things as we go along.

No Hagshaw and Spirebush are both in track 1 which means built by the end of 2030y