I don't need any apologies. This BB is not about me its about I3E and the ideas and research that contributors here are prepared to share with one another.
However great the odds and fairness of AIM, are stacked against amateur investors, those amateur investors are going to keep investing in AIM, because juts like me, they want a better life.
Rightly or wrongly, I tried to share everything that I have found and explain in a manner that everyone can understand. I know what it was like to be that guy that did not have a clue but wanted to play anyway. Having survived that phase and been rewarded by this market, I simply want to give something back and do my bit to even up the playing field a little.
I never share an opinion if I can help it, without providing links to the facts that I have employed. But it is always up to the individual to read those links and decide for themselves. Anyone thinking that I sold I3E to the people needs to re-read everything that I have written and then make that statement.
Like I say this BB is about I3E and its future prospects, not about me. With all due respect Ophidian (and it is appreciated), I don't want to be the focal point and I don't want any apologies. These are testing times here and things get said, which perhaps shouldn't be. I am a big boy and 8 years on AIM has thickened my skin somewhat.
I will leave it there. Please get back to talking about I3E and not me. When more news is delivered I will without fear or favour, comment as I see fit. I wish you all well in the meantime.
Wow how hard we work to build our reputations and how easily they are taken away from us.
In future I will think twice before sharing what I spent so much time trying to find out about companies.
I trust Emptyvessel will put the record straight but then would you want to believe him/her anyway? Probably not.
@gggg21 Really? Is that what all of my research and effort has come down to? Am I to be accused of having double accounts now?
Over the years I have been called an MM, a company employee, even the CEO himself, but double accounts and fraudulent behavior is a new low and I don't deserve that.
@fairdealer20 I made it very clear last night that I do not intend 'abandoning' anyone. The fact that I have defended the investment case here throughout this whole campaign because logically it was the right thing to do, does not automatically mean that any news is ok. That any news is acceptable and should be held through.
Prior to this drill, I3E always had a back up plan. Right now in my view, they unfortunately do not, unless the results of the well are better than they are thus far indicated to be.
Everything was set up for a clear and reportedly very good chance of hitting their target at A2 and I supported that fully. The result does not lend itself to the result that was expected.
I need more information before I am prepared to hold further. I believe my hard work here has earned me the right to make that decision for myself.
When we have a better understanding of what this drill result is and what it means for the future of the company, I may well buy back in. What I won't do and have never done in my investing life, is tried to undermine other investors positions, in order to gain a better position. If you believe my intentions to be otherwise, the I cannot and do not need to change that, nor make any apologies.
@Hereshopin I take on board your point about lingering and I will bear it very much in mind.
Look the last thing shareholders need now is to be told that things don't look great. But what they also do not need is to be told, is that this stock is worth many multiples of its current price when there are clear obstacles in their way.
I have pointed out a concern regarding the placing at 35p. I simply do not understand why the placing shares were stated as effectively being issued post A2 drill. Why not issue them immediately? It may be that it is pure coincidence but it is a valid concern that is worthy of debate.
One things I do not do on these BBs is shy away from saying something because it might not be popular. Anyone who just wants to hear it will all be ok, in my view is kidding themselves and perhaps needs to take a good hard look at why they invest and on what basis.
If I3E can jump through the number of hurdles that I now see before them, then great because it will be very profitable for them and their shareholders, of which I will gladly be one again, if they could just give me enough assurances about Liberator, their debt and their finance.
For those that say I am simply looking for a lower entry point, I say this. You have failed to understand what I am truly about. If I wanted to achieve that then I have had plenty of chances to swing that bat previously and never had. I have always given my opinion here as I saw it. Up until this result and the way it has come out, the company had my 100% backing. The wording of that preliminary result, rushed or not, and its delivery, has currently taken that away, because as far as I can see, the fundamentals have potentially changed to a point that the risk outweighs the potential benefits. Having put so much energy into defending this stock, when it was right to do so, I certainly don't like it, but it is what it is.
I have stayed behind stocks that have dropped far further than this, with limited concern about the share price, because despite the noise, the fundamentals had never changed. I can't say that about I3E right now, however much I would like to.
When further updates comes our way i will comment as I see fit, but I respect the views of the BB and will act accordingly and would never wish to be a burden to any discussion.
@MikG Like I said earlier, I have taken some tiem to have a really good think about the overall picture, post the initial A2 result.
What I do not like is the fact that a good many other parties have gained access to the information well before we have, and that means any further bad news will likely go the same way.
The 20ft TVDSS at the L1 position is for me plausible in terms of being commercial but it is likely bottom end and because of its length (horizontal wells remember), it is more expensive to finance. That is why L2 and L4 were the preferred positions for the first 2 production wells. Right now I do not believe that a 20ft measured depth set of sands with oil shows, is going to be sufficient to determine a production well in that area. I may well be wrong but given the hit I have already taken here, why would I feel the need to take the further risk?
As I have already stated, the £5m for the 4th drill is at a price well above where we currently find ourselves and it has not been issued yet. If they have not hit a suitable commercial zone at A2 and the model is brought into question once again, the why would ByBrook sanction that raise?
If not, then I3E are in a position where they either do not have a phase 1 development or they have a reduced scheme. That in turn brings into question the strategic relationship with Dolphin and the deferred debt, a sum we do not currently have a grasp on.
Without a phase 1 Liberator, Serenity becomes about raising finance to appraise it. I3E have excellent deal making skills but with £22m already on the books and the Dolphin debt, plus thew BGHE warrants, which are now some way out of the money, how and in what manner are I3E going to be able to raise cash for appraising Serenity?
I have backed them all the way through their plans and the re-arrangement of those plans, because what they did and how they answered the problems to date, has been very well put together. However, everything was set up fro them to hit what was a very high chance of success drill at A2 which would then deliver rewards, that deemed the risk worthwhile. The fact that they have hit such thin sands and likely a thinner oil column than the L1 location, means for me, that the risk reward balance, has been pushed too far towards the risk side of things.
If A2 is not commercial, and/or there is a very good explanation as to why they have missed the peak, then the SP will fall. It won't matter about the valuie in Serenity at that stage, because it will be all about the cash needed to pay the debt and a path to appraising Serenity/Lib West.
This management team is capable of pulling something out of the fire but having taken such a hit in such an illegal manner, I am not prepared to back them that one step further. I will gladly step back in when the plans are more concrete. If that means making less profit, then so be it. That's my opinion, tolerated or not.
@JAdam Would you have me continue to contribute here under the guise that I am still invested, when I am not?
Would you have me say that I believe that the prospects are good when everything is telling me that they are not?
I have take a sizeable hit here and I am not prepared to take any more until I feel that my chances of a better outcome are more assured. Right now I do not feel that way and lying about it, wouldn't help anyone, however much negative press it may drive my way.
@Kabaa I did not just naff off because I appreciate fully how much a part I have played in this BB these last few months. Nor do I intend leaving the BB, just because I am not currently invested. I3E is staying on my watch list and the moment I see more security in the plans, I will gladly step back in because I really do like the assets and the infrastructure they have access to.
Given my very active participation here these last few months, I did not feel it appropriate to simply go quiet, just because I could. You are entitled to judge my decision, my previous actions and anything else I continue to offer, anyway you see fit. It will not prevent me taking part in the debate, any less than it should for you or anyone else.
The simple fact for me here, is that I see this drill result, be it preliminary, as another miss at Liberator, and that has the potential for repercussions for I3E, their funding and their debts. I truly wish I felt otherwise but I currently do not, and that's before I add in the inside trading.
These BBs are of little use if all opinions are not given and debated as is seen fit by all parties that wish to take part.
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We also need to better understand the volumes now left in the phase 1 area. This high spot was part of a revised 46mmbbl STOIIP, of which I believe A2 was a smaller part but still an important part. However, the 46mmbbl for me is now under threat and the A2 area was supposed to demonstrate a thickening of the sands to the West (be it closely positioned to the discovery), but it hasn't, it has shown that the captain sands are thinner. So again, I would want to understand that better before investing.
I still do have much faith in the management team and their ability to move these assets forward but I do not trust the integrity of the ship they steer, nor do I now fully trust the model they are employing to determine Liberator. It won't affect Liberator West in the long run nor I trust Serenity, but as an investor I would be better protecting myself, by gaining greater knowledge of the investment case as a whole, rather than simply staying on board and hoping for the best.
It may well be that they downsize the Liberator phase 1 development to L1, as per the original CPR but until this miss is better explained, I am not prepared to stay invested.
I can forgive the I3E team for missing the Liberator channel once, especially when they did such a fine job with Serenity and all the troubles it took to get to that result, but they have now missed twice and that will surely bring into question trust related to supporting further drilling At Liberator phase 1
I also struggle greatly with the uneven playing field and the fact that no one from the BOD has stuck their head above the parapet to recognise the titanic hole in the security of their data. I appreciate that this may still come with the next operational update but the damage is already well and truly done.
I don't share these thoughts lightly but I would be doing myself and this BB an injustice, if I spent so long talking about all the positives but failed to share my concerns when they arise. Right now I have too many concerns about I3E and so I choose to protect my capital by exiting. There's nothing wrong with taking a big hit if it is the right thing to do for one's self. Pride doesn't make much money, that's for sure.
I trust I3E will eventually come good but after this result, there are a good many hurdles to jump through before they do.
To those who see this more positively and decide to stay the course, i salute you and I wish you the very best of good fortunes with your decision.
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Having fought the good fight here in defence of the facts and actions of this company these last few months, I now find myself, after a thorough review and think through, feeling rather bearish about the company's shorter term prospects. When I add in the despicable events of Monday and the fact that such an event was allowed to take place, it has driven me to make the unfortunate decision to exit.
It may well be that I will reinvest in the future but before I do I want to better understand, what exactly I3E has in the Liberator phase 1 area and how they can go about extracting the value out of Liberator West and Serenity.
Don't get me wrong the potential in those 2 areas is very significant, but shorter term there could well be significant headwinds, which I am not prepared to be a part of.
I was fully supportive of the actions of the BOD throughout the difficulties generated by the missed pilot well. I was impressed by their deal making skills to keep the drill programme moving forward and indeed to add the possibility of a 4th drill. Skills which may well stand them in good stead these next few months. However, I had thought that they had got their model fully in tune post Serenity success. It now appears they have not and that is a concern.
The 20ft of oil shows is measured depth not TVDSS. The comparison to the discovery is for me not appropriate because that was 24ft at TVDSS. I wish that was not the case but it is. The deviation may be minor, given we are talking a 20ft section but it still needs to be clarified. I have no issue with the porosity and its ability to flow but the big question now is volumes.
Now it may be that they have simply missed the peak once more but then what does that say about their model, and their ability to drill again so soon after this drill? Its a question and a risk that I would like an answer to before investing.
The 4th drill came with a placement at 35p but the shares were not scheduled to be issued prior to 6th December, so post this result. That says to me that they were dependent on a result at A2. Until A2 is fully analysed, I cannot see this drill going ahead. I also cannot see Bybrook committing to a 35p placement when the shares are lower than that. So if they are to commit to the £5m then either the A2 result has got to deliver a positive that gets us there, or the price has to be renegotaited.
In my view, if the A2 result has thrown the model into question once more, then the 4th drill will not proceed, which would be better for I3E's cash balance right now.
That then leaves them having to renegotiate their debt, which I do see them capable of doing but I want to see the results of that prior to investing.
I do feel that there is a very rigid thought process being applied to I3E and their junior debt right now. I appreciate that time along with more details, are required but the combination of the potential of Serenity the its low cost to appraise (S1 stated at $13m), means that there is certainly a bargaining chip on the table.
The same goes for Liberator West, although the model for Liberator does now need to be re-visited and re-confirmed.
That aside, I could see a deal for a free carry element of Serenity being reached, be it that it would need to come with a few softeners perhaps. It all depends on whether outside interest comes in Serenity first, be it that it is early days. Essentially the BOD have until the end of April to achieve funding or an alternative form of funding.
I do have my reservations about Liberator phase 1 but the key to value here is the BODs ability to overcome the debt (they do have good form in deal making of late) and to unlock both Serenity and Liberator, in whatever form it can now be achieved
Its not about the share price, its about those individual amateur investors, who when placed under extreme pressure, by the sort of antics we have seen here these last few months, look to the likes of websites like that which you yourself contribute to, for guidance. It is them I am talking about and it is for that reason, that those that publish articles based on facts, ensure that their facts are thoroughly checked, prior to being employed.
Sorry, I am not trying to single you out as a contributor, it is more what that system of writing creates and who it affects.
@garyn I appreciate the point you are making and I certainly have some concerns over what the future holds for the Liberator phase 1 area.
However, we must be a little careful here. Firstly, in the Oil Capital Conference presentation from 31st Oct, Mahid Shafiq states that the 3 wells (A2, A3 and A4) have relief between 80-90ft.
Upon closer inspection of slide 6, we can see that around half of the A2 peak sits at/close to the 5,200 line, which places it at circa 75/80ft.
I do not wish to split hairs but stating 100ft, goes directly against what the CEO said and what that particular slide backs up. What's also important to appreciate, is that the full width area of the peak at A2 is coming at just 300m, so when we talk peak, it is just that and it is very much localised.
At this stage we do not know if the model is out vertically or not. However, it must be remembered that we have 2 successful wells in the phase 1 area, and the 2nd is just 570m from the A2 site. The 24ft of sands above the OWC at that well is a reality. It is not going to be changed simply because this peak was misunderstood. So on that basis, I am struggling to understand the current conclusion that the whole model could be out vertically. That said I remain open minded and certainly cautious, until further results are available. I would think those with further reach than I, should consider a similar course of action.
It is thinner than I3E hoped for, but nobody here can truly claim that this result is commercial or indeed non commercial.
Nor i fear can many offer sufficient detail to confirm their argument.
I have my reservations over the content of the RNS but I also recognise that this RNS would not have been released, if the shenanigans of today had not taken place. I am unhappy as to the way the whole episode has been allowed to unfold, and some of that displeasure I aim directly at I3E management. However, there is a rat in the camp, and it is they that I really feel most aggrieved with.
That RNS is not worthy of a drop to 19p but nor is it right now worthy of much higher valuations. It is at best a holding RNS, that needs more meat on its bones, and that meat would have been delivered, had the events of today not taken place, and I3E had ad the chance to complete their wirelines and report on what they actually have in their hands.
By removing this opportunity, we now have an army of opportunists, who wish to appear educated in the world of I3E, just a few hours after this news became newsworthy.
In repeat, nobody knows at this stage, if this well location is commercial or not.
All we know is that "circa 20 ft MD of the Captain sand with oil indications has been found above the expected oil water contact." That would indicate that we are talking 20ft of oil indications. The expectation for sand relief above the OWC in this location was 80ft. At this time I cannot locate any evidence in either CPR, presentation or reports, that states that said 80ft was expected to be 100% oil. So we do not know what the average anticipated oil content was, that was would have been used to determine the oil in place (STOIIP), although I expect it was upper end.
I am in agreement that the volumes in place could well be affected, but right now it is too early to determine that, as the wirelines haven't even been started, and they may be closely followed by a vertical seismic profile (VSP).
It should be noted that in the interview post L2 pilot well result, Majid Shafiq talked about the VSP only. He did not mention wirelines and the TD was late the previous day, so that indicates strongly that the wirelines were not carried out for that well.
IF they can establish a 20ft oil column, then it will be similar to the oil discovery and in the CPR, that well is stated as being commercial at 2P recoveries, as a stand alone well, at Brent $57 in the first year of production (production start at 6,300 bopd). This was then anticipated to include a 2nd well in the 2nd year, paid for by the first well, which wold raise production to 8,800 bopd in that 2nd year.
I am not saying that will happen, I am merely offering what is known as opposed to what is concluded, by voices that in my view, have nor read too deeply into the actual documentation.
We need more information and as I say I have my reservations, but a write off is too hard too fast for me.
What is also very critical to remember is that how I3E move forward, should not be placed in a box that is defined by the RBL, in its current format. Ever since the L2 result, the market has been putting I3E into either the 'lets get rich quick box', or the one marked 'company is going out of business.'
The actually reality is far different to that.
It should also be remembered that I3E bought the original Liberaotor 13/23d block with an oil find with a 20ft oil column, and their CPR stated that said L1 well, was viable on its own. Whetehr investors believe them or not is their choice alone.
What I3E have been attempting to do since then is make the whole scheme bigger, and the market has been dogged in its determination to judge them against that plan, and is not prepared to consider how that pkanb could be adjusted, to ensure that 1st oil is hit.
This result is below their expectations, but the key is what does it mean for the actual path to 1st oil because establishing that, is what opens up Serenity and Liberator West, where the sands are deemed to considerable thicker.
The company now needs some space to determine exactly what they have and what it means for their model. What is clear to me is that nobody at this stage could say that this oil find is not commercial, nor that the RBL is under threat.
The pricing action today said otherwise, which makes the whole episode leave a rather nasty taste in one's mouth.
I intend pausing for thought now in an attempt to take all of what happened today fully in.
@SApike501 I think after such a lost and testing day, what none of us should be doing is jumping to conclusions too quickly.
Facts are what we need and what should be employed to ascertain what all of this means.
First and foremost we have an oil strike and the drop to 19p demonstrated something far worse than that.
In the 31st Oct Oil Capital Conference presentation, Majod Shafiq stated when talking about the 3 further wells in Liberator (A2, A3 and A4), that "all 3 of these have about 80-90ft of relief."
If we refer to the Liberator update presentation, we can see that the A2 is the smaller of the 3, as it peaks a tad bit lower than A3 and A4, so its likely where the 80ft reference comes from. He says relief not oil column, which is why I say tread carefully.
In all honesty Spike501 I believe a bit of a breather is needed here and some time to gather one's thoughts a little. I have never witnessed anything like that in all the time I have been on AIM.
I believed they had hoped for around 80ft, so 20ft certainly reduces the oil in place. However, my initial thoughts are that what this oil find does, is make the 4th drill far more of a certainty.
I appreciate greatly that there is a belief that 20ft of oil is a tad thin for a horizontal well but the L1 well has never been removed from the scope, and that would be attempting the same thing. The risk is certainly a tad higher on a thinner oil build up but what this is not, at this very early stage, is a duster because if L1 is commercial at 20ft, then one would assume (very early stages), that the A2 location is too.