It is for each individual contributor here to decide how they conduct themselves and what they believe to be true.
I would however, if I may, caution against driving a narrative that cannot be backed up with insurmountable proof. There are a great many intelligent and experienced members here, who know their stuff, be it bulls or bears. Such weak narrative for me does a disservice to the bigger picture and leaves oneself open to attack, from said intelligent persons, be it direct or worse still, indirect.
At times like this there needs to be a honesty about where BMN is and where it could/should be heading to. Its difficult given that many long term holders have, through their faith in the mission, stuck by this company and watched a lot of money gradually fall away. That's emotional. It is testing to say the least because the vast majority will never have been through such a roller coaster of financial gain/loss.
That needs to be respected by being realistic about where this business really is right now.
To be clear and as I have stated already, I believe the company is on a very strong footing financially. It remains profitable, which is what is most important, be it in my view, not to the levels still being advertised here. BMN has positioned itself really well and is sufficiently far enough advanced, to allow it to weather any storm that this virus or indeed a global downturn would bring. Knowing that means it will be in an excellent position, once things turn, be it this year or later.
In addition, it has a very exciting and potentially very large new business opportunity, that to date has not been recognised by the market and can flourish, even during a downturn. That is a very important point here.
I appreciate that some contributors here, do not buy into this. They do not or will not see the opportunity for what it is. That is of course the beauty of investing. If we all liked or believed the same things, then there would be no market.
I believe in it and that is why I see great value at these sort of valuations. However, i also recognise the threats, which do exist right now. This is not a dead cert. Trouble can strike any company at any time but as I have already said several times, I don't see it right now BMN. I see a ,lot of progress ahead, a lot of pent up potential and a bright future for the SP, given enough time and space to execute.
Out of interest, price action since 19th Feb 2020.
Evraz was up 9% today. Without that its drop would have been 40.5%
Glencore and Evraz are substantially more established than BMN with greater more established ii backing. However, even Glencore has relatively recent experience of near collapse and major share price swings.
Some might say its the nature of the beast. This is mining. Prone to heavy swings when the wider market experiences extremes.
Who knows? But BMN whilst not being entirely established just yet, is certainly working itself towards such status but even upon reaching its goal, may still experience violent swings, so long it remain a pure mining proposition.
But there lies the question and answer, all at once.
I don't own Glencore or Evraz. They don't interest me. I own BMN because it isn't just a miner. Its an energy play in the making and when it makes it, the wild swings should have dissipated, without the need to stop enjoying the benefits of what BMN the miner can still achieve, when it wants too.
There are times in investing, indeed in life in general, when the mind can exercise a will to play tricks upon us, in an attempt to search out an answer that is uncalled for, but that the mind demands in order to make sense of what it is being asked to process.
It is important to be clear. BMN is not making $1m profit a week now and nor has it been for quite some time.
The exact situation is difficult to determine due to the investments being made into Vametco, BE and soon Vanchem. Plus marketing and sales percentages remain elusive.
My best educated guess is that at $30 per kg and in today's climate (Rand, planned production etc) Vametco is running at (slightly conservative) around $20,000 per mtV + whatever the company is investing back into the business, which is what is truly key here and what will ultimately skew the numbers as and when they come out.
We can run the numbers but they don't really matter. BMN is a growth company with sizeable ambitions to more than double its vanadium output, deliver electrolyte production and serve up VRFB contracts. That means that right now it is about capital availability and regulatory green lights.
As I offered in my earlier post, the capital requirements are not that great right now on the BE side of things but the rewards are substantial. On the production side more so and it could be that the plans, for good reason, are slowed. However, if they are slowed here then it will be across the world vanadium supply board. BMN is after all one of the biggest players outside of China now. If they struggle then so does everyone else.
Personally, I do not see any problems with capital availability. The company has enough cash/facilities available to it to deliver the BE story and likely a percentage of mining expansion plan, if it is deemed sensible to do so.
That means they don't need to return to the market unless it is deemed value enhancing, so the SP, where ever it goes, is not the story here. PIs understandably make it the story but it isn't what is key right now.
In the last 12 months or so, BMN have delivered the Mokopone Mining Right and the electrolyte plant EIA. Both are ready to go on their terms now. The unknown regulatory blockages are now gone.
BMN is free to grow as it sees fit and as the market(s) allow it. Hence why FM stated in the 30th Jan update that " one cannot just grow for growth's sake."
But as I say, it is completely in their hands and along with one or two others out there, they now have the ability to instigate that growth as soon as it looks worthwhile, because the regulatory blocks have been removed.
To me, that all points towards a business in a healthy state, but operating in an unhealthy share price world and that is all.
Whilst the market will do what the market will do, its important to remember that a debt free BMN ($25m facility noted), with very limited capex demands, will be a minimum c. 4,500 mtV producer by the end of this year.
Furthermore, it requires limited capex (c. $5m) to complete its electrolyte plant and needs limited further capital to support both VRFB OEMs and the assembly of VRFBs in S.A.
The deal yesterday demonstrates clearly that when Redt (and they will not be alone) win a VRFB contract, BMN's rental model will be implemented and the vanadium will be sourced from BMN, if it is deemed financially worthwhile for BMN to do so.
Why? Because VRFB contracts are at their most competitive, when sold in this format and the more that get sold this way, the more the interest will grow in the business model.
The same will apply to Avalon and Enerox.
This is all happening in an environment where vanadium prices are low (still profitable mind) and the market is focused on what that means for BMN the miner. However, that same low price environment is exactly what is going to support the roll out of VRFBs even more.
It should be easy to appreciate why the market is looking in the wrong place but here on this BB, it should be clear that it does not matter.
What matters is that energy storage growth will not be truly hindered by a downturn in global markets. Its energy supply. Its climate change, omissions and proof that materials supplied meet the norm, meet customer requirements to be responsibly sourced, by not placing a burden on the climate.
What matters is that BMN do not need a great deal of capital to grow this side of the business. The hard work has been done. A sufficient number of OEMs have been captured and their vanadium supply secured.
If BMN have to temporarily reduce their mining expansion plans, it won't matter because 4,500 mtV is ample right now. However, they now have 2 markets driving their reasoning to expand their production. One is a baby but its growth spurts will likely surprise.
The point is BMN is seen as a miner, waiting for its pricing to turn but it is a miner no more and here of all places that should be understood.
Once the market gets it too (given time and more patience), then today's valuation won't make any sense.
We have a market and its an exciting one at that. We have a competitive product. We have projects under way, so proof of concept and a portfolio. We have limited capex requirements and so burden on cash flows.
That's a very potent ****tail for growth in what is perceived to be a downward part of BMN's miner backed cycle.
So why isn't the wider market getting it? Who cares? I get it, that all that truly matters.
By my calcs, as of yesterday, the gold price needed to average $1,650 per oz for the remainder of the month to deliver a $1,600 per oz average for Q1.
As with pretty much every other gold miner, that is not priced into the Serabi Gold valuation right now.
We have seen some really good consolidation, which was needed after the push through the resistance at circa 93p but since then the fundamentals have only strengthened.
At some point, something has to give.
Thank you Alfacomp. That is much appreciated.
I am no financial advisor and I am certainly not gods gift to investing. I merely offer an opinion, which can be added to, rebuked, dismantled, whatever.
My opinion is that at time like this, one has to do one's absolute level best, to find clarity. To see beyond the haze. A market in panic lead to more panic.
So its important to analyse each investment and decide what its prospects are for getting through all this pain and coming out the other side.
For me BMN is in a very strong position, even if its share price says otherwise.
Right now, this uncertainty is putting all future vanadium projects on the back burner. They've lost 6-12 months if not more, just from this market downturn. That is going to show itself at some point in the future.
Energy storage investments by BMN come with limited upfront capital constraints. They are not capex heavy.
Energy storage mandates are climate change driven, are backed by climate change funding, which will not be interrupted by a global slowdown. So the market opportunity remains, the capital and ideas are all there for BMN, so the story continues, with or without a steel market demand, whose support to date, has not as far as I can see, pushed BMN into the red.
The share price is not the story, be it that it will likely take centre stage for now.
Good morning all,
Whilst this update is in my view significant, we would all be kidding ourselves if we believed that BMN will not be dragged into what is fast becoming a major market sell off. What we are witnessing is wider market driven and is not built on facts and figures. It is pure panic and at such times, sensible decision making is in short supply.
That said, this update is as i said significant to those that understand what BMN is setting itself up to do.
The 15MWh of projects that BMN has committed to, will stand as exhibits to all those project leads that Redt have but have to date, been unable to convert to actual contracts. The same goes for BMN and BE.
As can be seen with EVs and Tesla, the market does not change direction overnight. Projects with reputable clients, need to be delivered and demonstrated, so that future customers can see that the theory physically delivers.
This project(s) delivers a European offering for a significant utility based customer and will do exactly that. It will demonstrate, to EDF, to Redt clients, to BE's network, to Europe in general.
One of the biggest reasons I hold BMN shares, is because I believe in their ability to deliver on a fully integrated energy storage mining platform. That platform, when fully operational, has the ability to remove BMN the miner, from the all encompassing market dynamics, that we are and will continue to witness this week. Meaning BMN should one day be in a position to demonstrate, that its energy business can deliver significant profits, even when the cycle is against it.
Today' announcement is yet another step further down that road, which for me is looking more and more certain. The wider market cannot possibly be ready to hear that message yet because it has much bigger problems on its hands right now.
But I don't care. Just keep on delivering these updates BMN. Keep driving down that road and eventually the penny will drop.
BMN has cash. It has profitability, be it minimal. However, at times like this, it is about knowing that the business will still be here when the worst is over. BMN will not only be here but it will be a much better operation for it because the company is able to invest to better itself. Be that in steel or energy storage markets. That's what is key here in the medium to longer term.
As I just communicated in a tweet ;
Also important to remember that of the total 181,000 oz reserves currently assigned to the Palito Complex (June 2017), only 24,000 oz were from Sao Chico.
Inferred grades were already nearly double that at Palito mine (13.70 g/t vs 7.02 g/t).
Latest drilling results indicate a large extension of this higher grade resource, meaning far better inputs to the processor, later down the line.
With added ore sorter benefits still to come.
This is just the tip of the iceberg with only 40% of drilling completed and still the exciting wider extensions around Sao Chico mine, still to come (Abelha, Besouro, Cicada and of course the 8km long Cinderella).
The Serabi team is building a very solid and exciting story here.
I have put some information in the following set of tweets, which for me help support the grounds for a considerable uplift in installs this year.
"Interest from more larger faculties, larger zoos, larger aquariums, who want to run 50+ headsets"
Clearly lots of work in the pipeline. CEO Martin Higginson talking around what are clearly ongoing discussions with potential new clients. The Rhode Island install will be the first (8 seater also) outdoor install at a zoo, which is a far bigger market than aquariums and clearly the next big target area.
There is a great deal to like about what IMMO are putting together here.
I don't believe this should be about finger crossing. This is about patience, positioning and timing.
The "further details to these measures" point is interesting because Mantashe has already gone on record as saying that the Section 34 ministerial determinations will come first and that they will be in the next few weeks (dated 17th Feb).
Ramaphosa has stated that said section 34 determinations will unlock amongst other things, investments in battery storage, which to me clearly includes the Eskom Battery Storage project.
"a Section 34 Ministerial Determination that will be issued shortly to give effect to the Integrated Resource Plan 2019, enabling the development of additional grid capacity from renewable energy, natural gas, hydro power, battery storage and coal."
The Mining Minister has effectively been publicly instructed to issue these Section 34 determinations. He has no wriggle room on this. Nevertheless it will be interesting to hear exactly what he has to say and when these things will most likely come to pass.
1pm GMT or 2pm CET
A potentially very big day in the life of S.A energy and Bushveld Minerals.
Failed to do so or the market failed to be there?
Larger producers are scaling back production right now due to pricing pressures.
Lithium prices at this point in time, are not supportive of widespread investment in new mines. Sorona is well advanced, well financed and is well inside the 1st quartile on the cost curve. That's attractive and will pay well when demand picks up but investment lags.
The Deutsche Lithium project looks like a solid future project but in this pricing environment, it is simply not worthy of pouring substantial time and resource into, be it from BCN or those 3rd party investors, who may or may not exist right now.
My simple view on this development and the plan as a whole, is that right now the German Lithium project is a distraction and a further $30m investment would be far too dilutive, for what would be gained.
The key to success here, front end, is Sonora and all resources and capital should be focused on getting its finance over the line and production started.
Once that has been achieved, then the German project can be revisited with funding that is far less punitive. There is plenty of money to be made here from simply driving Sorona through its 2 stages of development.
So I am delighted to see this investment parked, for now.
Shareholders in BMN could not have asked for a better result than that Ramaphosa has delivered tonight in his SONAS address. That the words now need to turn into actions is clear but the sheer fact he has even gone there, speaks volumes for the state Eskom and more importantly the economy, now find themselves.
Serious implications afoot for Eskom and more importantly Bushveld Minerals.
@Ronaldtrump The directors are not selling. Their holdings have been adjusted to take into account the new placing shares, which entered the market today.
This is something I would have thought you would be aware of, given your desire to focus on placings in general.
@Bella6532 We are likely several months away from any contract being awarded for the BESS project.
What I have been discussing is the tender release, which starts the whole ball officially rolling.
The previous timelines were circa 5 months from tender release to contract award.
In my opinion, Eskom will have to better that if they want the batteries for phase 1, all installed by 30th June 2021. Hence why i stated yesterday that the front end time frames will need to be shortened.
At present, the tender period is 6 weeks. I assume that the S.A. government and Eskom will not pass up on the chance to announce this tender, being that it is worth over ZAR 7 billion in value but I am not in their shoes.
If the timings don't fit very well, then I would not expect BMN to say a word about tendering until the bids are all in. No point giving one's game away just yet.
So an update on their involvement may not come in the Q1 update.
However, right now this is not about knowing those things. This is about the tender going live and BMN's chances and the format they intend approaching the tender with.
Whilst it is a UET battery at Eskom, there is no guarantee that they will be the technical partner on the tender.
The vast majority of PIs operating out there in the world, don't get the energy storage angle at all.
They get the vanadium market, they get the mining business and its expansion plans but not the fully integrated model.
If investors are well read on the pending energy storage revolution and they believe it and buy into it, then they are ahead of the curve. What they then unfortunately have to do is wait for the curve to catch up.
There was a day once when nobody believed BMN could/would buy Vametco. 3 years later everyone was talking about it because vanadium prices were booming and that was fairly easy for investors to work out.
Investors are only now starting to get their heads around the EV battery revolution. Even then there is a failure to appreciate what future demand will entails and to take early positions ahead of its arrival. Energy storage is still another rung or two further down the ladder.
Milestones like the Eskom BESS Project, will help change that.
If BMN win big on that BESS Project, then all discussions on price action, shortage of love, shorting itself, economic cycles, downturns, whatever, effectively go out of the window.
The BESS project is the key that opens the fully integrated platform chest and it is for me just too damn coincidental, that such a significant project, should arrive right on the doorstep of BMN, just as they are prepared enough to handle it.
I could of course be wrong. It could be that BMN bid and fail. Its just that I don't see that happening for all of the reasons posted earlier. They aren't just in with a chance, they are in the driving seat because they have been preparing for this opportunity in S.A, longer than anyone else out there, wishing to beat them to it.
My opinion only of course.