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More from the #HEX RNS.

"The only significant source of uncommitted excess helium capacity globally is Russia's Amur 2 facility, which remains subject to sanctions and has experienced its own operational difficulties."

China is one of the biggest buyers of Qatar's helium.

From my earlier post above.

"From Russia's Arctic LNG 2 project to China, it takes 18-22 days. Then, 25-30 days from China back to Qatar."

Even if sanctions were lifted today and the tanker left port immediately, we are talking over 45 days + transit time from its current location to Russia.

This assumes Qatar is back online by the end of this period.

"Two ships are on offer. Both have primarily been used to export LNG from Qatar."

My enclosed post includes sailing times from the major LNG hubs to China. By leasing the tankers out, Qatar is essentially saying they don't need them for at least a couple of months. According to the Gasworld helium experts, 30-45 days of disruption to Qatar supply is enough to have a significant effect on helium pricing.

"Qatar is beginning to lease out its LNG tankers as the country's massive export plant remains shut."

"Top Japan energy analyst says it could be a sign that Qatar LNG export plant will be offline for a longer period."

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/2029812490473750988?s=20

People perhaps waking up to the helium market disruption.

https://x.com/anasalhajji/status/2029631805909799271?s=46&t=6uXiPPBc0pslakpmlxiTnQ

The truth is nobody really knows.

The main question will be, does TACO come into play this time around? The stock market tends to be Trump's barometer, and so far it is holding up. But the situation is bound to evolve with every passing day. Volatility is set to increase, and it's already starting from a strong base in 2026.

In the meantime, spare a thought for those poor Iranians in Tehran getting indiscriminately pounded. Whoever decided Israel should be assigned the offence on that city is a sadist.

I thought the SP would kick on today, but perhaps I gave the general market too much respect.

For me, the disruption to Qatar supply has already done its job for Helix. The Persian Gulf has declared itself unstable, and even if the war were to end tomorrow, trust concerns and heightened risk will remain for some time. This gives Bo and his team the upper hand in long term contract negotiations and potentially an additional front-end boost in spot sales pricing. If the disruption to supply continues, then that boost will continue to grow, but it is something of a side show compared to my first point (unless it goes on for an extended period, which I don't think it can, but let's see).

What added security on pricing does is reduce the risk of revenues reaching the heights stated by the company, which in turn increases the possibility of more capital being made available for expansion.

This includes, but is not limited to, more wells at Rudyard this year, Ingomar being revisited, and the hydrogen opportunity being investigated/proven. As an investor, the security of knowing that this growth opportunity exists is more than enough at this stage and this valuation level, and the disruption to Qatar has all but secured it, even if the market needs more time to appreciate it.

It was an excellent webinar, and the presenters stated it would be available shortly afterwards. Likely on YouTube. If I see it, I will publish it here.

Unless someone is using his name, it looks like Bo Sears is watching the Gasworld webinar.

The Gasworld team just said that a few weeks of interruptions would affect spot prices. I don't think they are aware of the most recent minimum 4-week Qatar shutdown.

It's rabbits in the headlights type stuff.

An unbelievable development for Helix.

"QATAR TO FULLY SHUT GAS LIQUEFACTION ON WEDNESDAY, TWO SOURCES CLOSE TO MATTER SAY

QATAR WOULD NEED 2 WEEKS TO RESTART GAS LIQUEFACTION AFTER FULL SHUTDOWN, SOURCES SAY, CITING INITIAL ESTIMATES

ONCE RESTARTED, QATAR WOULD NEED AT LEAST ANOTHER 2 WEEKS TO REACH FULL CAPACITY, SOURCES SAY"

A minimum 4-week disruption is now all but guaranteed. Prices rises inevitable now.

https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2029193410414866918?s=20

Thank you, blatav1. Very good to know.

The way I see it, the cat is out of the bag. The conflict may subside, but the world is waking up to how unstable the Persian Gulf supply can be. So as an absolute minimum, I see end users splitting their contracts to de-risk at least some of their supply.

This places the US supply of many things (including helium) in a much stronger position, and as I said elsewhere today, that was perhaps their plan all along.

Hi LufupaLion,

I wrote this on X a little earlier.

"The US is the world's biggest producer of helium, but it is busy building beasts like this, which place significantly higher demand on supply.

https://x.com/VishakhRanotra/status/2026302826193068352?s=20

Despite its No.1 producer status, US East Coast users still import helium from the likes of Qatar because it is cheaper than transporting current US sources. This also helps keep US prices stable.

Remove that supply, and that demand has to go elsewhere, and prices inevitably rise.

We are in a phase of significant semiconductor production expansion, and it requires increasing quantities of helium to function.

As of today, helium cannot be replaced in this process. There is no substitute.

I posted this quote yesterday.

"A 72-hour helium outage cost Samsung $300M in 2024."

They must have a stable supply of helium, and the cost of not doing so far outweighs any premium they need to pay.

Helix is in the enviable position of having just commenced production, but not having signed any long-term pricing contracts yet. If they wished, they could sell everything in the current spot market. They won't do that because they want revenue security, but they are in a very strong position.

The way I see it, they have a front-end, immediate revenue opportunity driven by Qatar's production curtailment. But more importantly, there is now an even stronger, longer-term competitive advantage driven by the risk factor in the Middle East, and that likely isn't going away for years.

Running parallel is the semiconductor build-out, which, even without this recent geopolitical stress, will drive demand for their ultra-purity (99.999%) product for many years to come.

Helix has delivered its first helium production c. 6 months later than planned, but it may just turn out to be a blessing in disguise."

An excellent article here on what is unfolding in the Persian Gulf and what these initial Iranians attacks have exposed.

"The broader lesson is harder to ignore. The expanding Iran conflict has exposed how fragile global energy security remains. A few well-placed attacks in the Persian Gulf can unsettle prices, disrupt trade, and weaken growth far beyond the Middle East. If this pattern continues, Persian Gulf energy infrastructure no longer will be seen as a source of stability. It will be viewed as one of the world’s most dangerous economic fault lines."

All Iran need do is carry out sporadic attacks on these facilities with minimum damage, and they will be continuously offline.

Meanwhile, end users will be scrambling to source an alternative supply that comes with far less risk but inevitably higher prices.

https://www.meforum.org/mef-observer/irans-war-on-gulf-state-energy-infrastructure-reverberates-beyond-oil-and-gas

So we are tying Huddled into the Middle Eastern war now, are we?

From my monitoring, I would say that Huddled is looking as well-organised as it has ever been.

That should say "type of MO we are dealing with here."

Now take it one step further. Despite what some may think, Bo Sears has been fairly reserved with funding calls so far. Yet within 21 months, they have executed 5 wells. 4 of which have been successful, along with a modular PSA plant that can now be added to for a little extra expense (The market still doesn't get this, but it will).

Given this man's consistent MO, I don't see him changing his spots. But the funds at his disposal are going to change for the better, and with that comes leverage and that drive to move quickly. That's when things will get really interesting here.

An investment here is as much, if not more, about the team and the man in charge as it is about what has been achieved so far.

Again, he isn't perfect. More mistakes may come, but so long as his strike rate remains consistent, we should do very well.

It is worth noting that post the 5th June funding, it took Helix just one week to commence mobilising the drill rig to Inez #1.

Until that 5th June update, the market didn't even know Inez #1 existed. By 12th June, Helix had reported that construction of the road and drill pad for Inez #1 was already completed. An example of activity on the ground running ahead of reporting a pattern that I expect to repeat.

Bo Sears has been clear that if the opportunity is there, then time shouldn't be wasted waiting. The only time he has done this so far is with the PSA plant because it made good business sense to complete that action before pushing further into the field. Now that it is completed, he is reverting to the previous approach of pushing the asset forward. Investors need to appreciate the type of EO we are dealing with here. Just because we don't know the full plan yet doesn't mean it isn't happening, and the MO says that Inez #1 re-entry is being actioned asap.

In other news, 5.2m shares already traded today. This overhang has days at best in it.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/2028794136661237952?s=20

Just to double-check, is it 10 lines for the current PSA because my notes say 8.

If so, I would like to see where that was stated, as it improves the outlook.

The reality is that most of the market doesn't have a clue how cheap it is for Helix to bolt onto this PSA plant.

Thanks in advance.

@asimplyinvestor I don't disagree. I was merely giving off-the-cuff examples of the possible. Never say never in this game. But it doesn't have to be the focus at the moment.