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It is understandably difficult to appreciate what this means for VRFB and the vanadium market moving forward. With this damn virus in play, there will no doubt be some curve balls too but if investors can see beyond the craziness of these past few week, then they should start to appreciate that the strongest VRFB offering ever is getting ready to hit the market.
This is not about there being a market for battery storage but about who gets what share. So this BMN driven move (which should never be forgotten. It is BMN who enabled this merger to happen and triggered the finance that we see today), is a very big deal within the greater context of that market and is a significant step towards VRFBs realising the shar eof the market, that to date has been study led only (eg. BNEF).
Its 123MWh today without all of these new found advantages in play. But tomorrow and in the years to come, it has every chance of being something else completely. . .
and its BMN vanadium and BMN vanadium only, that is backing it from the beginning.
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As stated already here today, the pipeline of projects supports my view from Friday, that Redt/Avalon can deliver BMN 30MWh of vanadium demand in 2020.
However, the current project pipeline is a "merged pipeline" only. So the total pipeline of 123MWh (c.650 mtV ) is what the 2 companies were able to generate, be it not guaranteed work, based on their own company formats and approaches.
From the Redt RNS ;
"redT's expertise in energy project analysis has enabled the Company to find viable projects even with product costs that are higher than those of Avalon's VRFBs. By combining Avalon's product cost advantages and redT's project analysis expertise, significant new commercial opportunities are expected to emerge."
"In addition to this, a number of projects initially targeted by redT that were not pursued because they didn't have an adequate return, have favourable economics when using Avalon's product costing. In addition, the breadth of geographic coverage (namely the addition of North American and Asian markets to redT's current focus areas of UK, Europe, Africa and Australia) by the Enlarged Group will allow a focus on projects that are most compelling and profitable for the business."
"Invinity will utilise the aforementioned experience of its teams to combine the best cost-down engineering advancements of Avalon's technology with redT's project and application experience and sophisticated commercial business models to unlock new markets, applications and other commercial opportunities afforded by an estimated 40 per cent. reduction in product costs which the Enlarged Group hopes to achieve over the next 36 months."
"On Completion of the Merger and associated fundraise, Invinity will enjoy a position of relative financial stability amongst its peers. This will allow Invinity to achieve the minimum scale required to compete in a global market currently dominated by large incumbent lithium-ion manufacturers from Asia and the United States."
There's more information and quotes to be had, but in essence this lead case in the long awaited and quite frankly always needed, consolidation in the VRFB OEM space, gives these new entities the necessary synergies and efficiencies, to drive their VRFBs beyond cost parity with lithium-ion. That in turn delivers the last true building block in an offering, which already holds technological and safety advantages.
Then to top it all off, throw in a guaranteed vanadium supply and rental product.
It is no longer good enough to simply use historical performance to judge VRFB sales of the future because there was never an entity like the one that Redt/Avalaon have just created.
Nor was there ever a VRFB company that was strategically backed by a vanadium miner who sits on its BOD and own its shares.
Despite the fact this may be yet another week requiring a strong tin hat, the news out of Redt is fantastic to say the least.
The deal has been completed without any further cash calls on BMN. At 3.842 billion shares in issue (prior to consolidation), BMN at 297m is the owner of 7.7%. So they are healthily above the 5% threshold and can look forward to a place on the BOD for at least 1 year and more importantly for me, has :
"A right of first refusal to supply vanadium, vanadium electrolyte and vanadium as a rental to the merged entity for two years"
So BMN can, if it deems it financially beneficial, suppl all vanadium requirements to the new company, which ;
"a world leader in the fast growing, global energy storage market with our proven disruptive alternative to lithium-ion technology."
Whilst the foreseeable future for the world markets looks very challenging, a key support for BMN during those times, is going to be their ability to access alternative avenues of income.
With this deal, BMN aren't just gaining the possibility of challenging for work in this sector. Nor are they in a position where by there is hope, that this merger can positively impact vanadium prices, so that BMN can indirectly benefit. This deal gives them direct access to all the vanadium supply that these two companies can generate, for 2 years.
2 years is a very good looking window in this current world.
Both companies have a clear pipeline of work but never before had the funds but importantly, the guaranteed supply of vanadium at a price that gave them the confidence to invest.
It is that which is key here. BMN will benefit from this relationship but it is a two way street. This bigger and better VRFB entity, can now invest in the sort of production and supply lines, that have to date been illusive to them, because they never had security of vanadium supply. So the savings won't just come from what BMN can so for them, they will come across the board.
Add to that the synergies of the two companies themselves and then thr vanadium rental product on top and we have as potent an offering as the VRFB market has seen and that the lithium-ion battery, will ever have come up against.
What's more, the finance deal we are seeing get over the line here, is testament to what having BMN as a backer can deliver. Not only the $5m loan which brought stability to both companies but the strength that guaranteed supply of vanadium and a rental product, bring to the investment case. That's why for me there's a £3m loan facility on the table without additional warrants or incentives.
This is enormous news, it really is.
Bring home Enerox next and the move is then complete. We don't need anymore, though more are of course welcome under the right circumstances.
One final point from me.
Another big miss by the market in the Redt JV update.
"The vanadium electrolyte will be processed from feedstock from Bushveld's primary assets in South Africa, by an industrial partner in the United Kingdom."
What that does in one fell swoop, is remove the question over BMN's ability to produce enough electrolyte for larger scale mandates, such as the Eskom BESS Project.
If BMN can find an external electrolyte partner in the UK, they can find one closer to home as well.
Howeever, the Eskom BESS project is now set up very well for the electrolyte plant and although BMN conceal their plans well, by talking about the plant supporting exports of electrolyte etc, the reality is that that will all change if they go after the Eskom project with real gusto and win a sizeable portion of it.
The only thing preventing the upgrading of the electrolyte plant to 400/600/800MWh, are the contracts to justify it. The Eskom project may well be worth it, or failing that will be on hand to support a good sized project won from it.
Now that localised VRFB assembly.
The Feb 2020 presentation slide 4, states "Support of local VRFB assembly in South Africa."
It says support not develop like it does on that very same slide for electrolyte.
From the BMN RNS dated 12th Nov 2019 ;
"These partnerships support Bushveld Energy's business model, that includes electrolyte manufacturing and rental, VRFB manufacturing and deployments."
Whilst that is a general line taken from the "Strategy for partnering with VRFB companies" RNS, it does not reappear in the Redt/Avalon RNS nor is there mention of that particular investment supporting VRFB manufacturing.
Make of that what you will but the "support" element appeasr to be saying that one of the known OEMs will be supported to set up local manufacturing, with BMN certainly helping with the finance element and likely the S.A. BEE and associated obstacles.
All of that looks to be set up around the Eskom BESS project tender.
More importantly, the language being employed is that it a path that is already partly trodden.
Under 2020 priorities the company states "Investigate business case for South African based VRFB assembly."
For those that are perhaps newer to BMN, the exact same was said about the partnership with UET, but the resulting demonstration project at Eskom , never felt like it was anything less than meant to be.
BMN have always been further down the road than their result show and the words they print, have often been a road map to what was to come. Vametco being exhibit A. I know this because I was there.
There is much more than meets the eye here, limited news flow or not.
@1210 I am not writing anything off I assure you. This is more about breaking down the opportunity by first and foremost starting with what we have, which is a lot.
The investments in the OEMs has now opened up many new markets including Europe and the United States and added several new options for local assembly in S.A.
However, what i am attempting to demonstrate, without any desire to ignore those opportunities, is the potential impact that already exists, from what is already known.
There are 3 OEMs in play and one exceptionally large scale mandate, on their doorstep, which as a package can deliver considerable benefit and support to the company, before they even start to think about other market opportunities.
It is however important to understand that BMN's markets will be where the OEMs decide to tread, and I am sure between the 3 of them, everywhere is potentially in the mix.
One more very important point. How BMN deals with each OEMs will be decided by the project and its location. Cast your mind back to the Crux interview and MN's comments about the level of involvement that BE will have, particularly if the project is in S.A.
This is particularly relevant to the Eskom project. The indication from the interview is that BMN will come at as developer, so the revenues could well be far greater than simply securing vanadium/electrolyte supply contracts.
My example only discussed the vanadium sales benefits, as a means to demonstrate their ability to make meaningful profitable sales, even in a downturn and that that in itself, is quite a move i their markets. None of which is appreciated by the market to date.
We haven't even discussed the value chain benefits of being further up the chain. The Eskom BESS has a minimum battery element only valuation of $468m
At 800MWh, that's $585,000 per MWh, although I am sure that is based on a contract that does not include rental. I also recognise the simplicity of my calcs. Using my earlier example of 20MW (80MWh), that's c. $46.8m in revenues, compared to a Vametco doing $111m for the whole of 2019.
However, none of what i am presenting is designed to nail down the exact detail, it is about open up the thought process.
To be clear, my mind cannot bring itself to allow me to believe that BMN, as a developer, could win the whole Eskom contract. Nor do I believe that BMN feel they need to. What BMN want is a sufficient number of contracts over an extended period of time, to justify the localisation of VRFB assembly and they don't need a great many to achieve it. my recollection is circa 10MW.
What that then does is bring the OEMs back into play once more. More on that subject shortly.
To be absolutely clear, no one should take the $46.8m as gospel. I am merely using the World Bank figures, which are real and making a very simple calculation. The point is the opportunity it demonstrates and how it can dwarf all of what BMN has done to date.
If I may be direct. The JSE listing does not matter one iota right now. It creates no benefit to UK investors that I can see and with the market tumbling will likely get a luke warm reception anyway.
For whatever reason it is delayed, it is and personally I am not concerned by its elusive nature.
The same goes for dividends. Forget it. BMN right now needs to deliver on its plans and all cash will be needed. So keep it, spend it wisely and wait for another day to pay dividends.
The market is busy worrying itself about BMN's ability to survive what it expects to be a global downturn.
The trouble is that the market is lazy and is measuring BMN against the wrong metrics.
Investors are questioning BMN's ability to access the energy storage market. The fact is they already have.
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So the percentages point to success on that project even if it 'just' vanadium and electrolyte supply. In a global downturn, if that is what we are facing, the vanadium supply into that concessional funded project could be a god send.
Therefore, 10% of the project is not all that big an ask.
I appreciate that some projects may freeze up if finance becomes an issue or the companies involved tighten their belts. However, there are enough clean fund projects coming through to meet the limited demands I am setting. The Oxford hub, the Eskom Project and the "the other African projects within the World Bank 17.5 GWh energy storage roll-out programme," are testament to that.
So i am back to my 500mtV in 2021 and its a conservative base case at that.
In 2021, BMN is likely worst case scenario producing 4,500mtV. That means over 10% of the then current production is making its way into energy storage projects. That's newsworthy and for me absolute minimum to expect.
Now lets take our conservative hat off and open up the door to something more exciting but not completely implausible.
What if BMN goes and wins the whole of the phase 1 Eskom BESS Project? On the basis of what BMN describe in their Redt JV update, they would struggle to produce enough vanadium for it without severely disrupting their steel markets.
What then happens to the steel market when it loses those 4,260mtV of supply from BMN?
What happens when Redt, Avalon and Enerox start to gain traction, following successful demonstration roll outs of the rental product?
What if they achieve more than 15MWh each in 2021 (Redt/Avalon 30MWh together). What if Redt are able to reignite their 700MWh German contract with this new rental product and a new guaranteed supply? First phase slated at 2 x 40MWh.
That's 425mtV of vanadium.
What about Enerox?
From Oct 2019 ;
"The company is nearing several large-scale contracts which will be executed once production capacity can be planned to adequate levels."
"Over the past year Enerox launched the Generation 4 product series, the most advanced (“VRFB”) on the market today as stated by independent industry experts."
Is 15MWh really asking too much. isn't the reality in 2021 much higher?
This is the power of having not only the best technical VRFB manufacturers on board (and we are talking 3 not just 1), but also the fact that BMN has the method and the product, to drive them like they have never been seen before.
So what then if Enerox matches Redt in 2021? Another 425mtV of vanadium. Why is that not achievable?
That's anywhere from 500mtV to 5,000mtV of vanadium going into energy storage in 2021, with the majority utility/power generation based companies, in part backed by clean funds and non cyclical in their decision making.
Somewhere on that scale of delivery, the trigger point sits. It has to.
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Back to that trigger point 'briefly'.
The 15MWh deal with Redt secures 80mtV of vanadium supply.
Given the year is still fairly young and there are 2 other VRFB OEMs in the mix (Avalon should soon be part of Redt but has its own project pipeline), it is not beyond reason that this deal could triple in size in 2020. That's not such a big ask for OEMs that are financed and have access to vanadium stock and the benefits of a rental product.
If so, then BMN could well secure around 240mtV of vanadium salesinto the energy storage market in 2020.
In 2019 BMN sold 2,392mtV of vanadium.
On a like for like basis (and I recognise that BMN is a bigger fish in 2020 with Vanchem on boadr and Vametco expected to produce more vanadium), that would have BMN achieving over 10% of its total 2019 sales, in energy storage in 2020.
That would be quite a headline.
I appreciate that I am making predictions here but is 15MWh of sales per OEM all that much, given BMN has signed an exclusivity agreement with all 3 companies and has first right of refusal.
Then we have the Eskom BESS tender and its upto 800MWh of batteries.
I remain convinced that BE will want to hit that project as a main developer, alongside the IDC.
However, it does not truly really matter how it comes, so long as BMN get the vanadium and electrolyte supply.
To imagine that BMN would not employ their rental product for such a prestigious and large scale project, is for me simply not possible. The opportunity is just too great.
The project keeps pushing itself as an EPC with one lucky winner. However, even if it gets broken up into packages. Even if in the end BMN and their partners, however they blend together, only secure 20MW of the 200MW on offer. So 10%. That still comes in at around 50MWh of vanadium supply, which is another around 265mtV of vanadium.
Now that project highly likely now will not need electrolyte until 2021, which of course brings the electrolyte plant into play. That aside, that's another 10% of those 2019 equivalent sales booked for 2021.
Even if the 2/3 OEMs only delivered the same feat again in 2021, so 240mtV of vanadium demand, that would mean BMN in 2021 would be supplying over 500mtV of its production into energy storage projects.
Now its all theory but its bare bones in its approach. The OEMs are real, their project pipelines are real and they never had supply security before or a willing rental product to drive sales.
I am only asking them to achieve 15MWh of sales in a year. That's because BMN gets all their sales if it wants to, so we are not talking a piece of a much bigger pie and so a need to be more successful.
The Eskom BESS project is very real, be it slow. Certainty, death and taxes come to mind, but the Eskom BESS project cannot be far behind. Anyone who has done their homework can see the clear tie ins here, the ground work put in, the influence from BMN and in particular the IDC.
@TrevorBrooking If BMN get this right and able to exploit the opportunity that is far more of a reality than they are given credit for, then yes i absolutely agree, that in time they will be a staple part of a great many income driven funds.
And if another big downturn comes along, the affect on the SP should be minimal compared to what we have seen these last few days.
The beauty of this is that any VRFB manufacturer outside of China, if they want to succeed, has to secure supply and cost stability.
Right now the best option to do that is Bushveld Minerals. I have said it many times before, the relatiosnhips being struck by BMN in the sector, are on their terms. In 2016 when BMN had not assets or a platform, the tie up with UET was all about then success of convincing a VRFB OEM to work with them.
That's now history. The drive higher in vanadium prices has not only delivered BMN the tools to advance their platform and streamline their operation (just in time I might add9, but it has now handed the best technical VRFB companies and their project pipelines too.
For all the vanadium price rally gave BMN; it took the same away from those OEMs. So they are needy and desperate and open for business.
Hence why BMN gets a 20% commission on its loan to Redt, which transfer into shares. That's $1m of free investment in what could go on to be a significant VRFB concern.
The set up is wonderful it really is and it is made all the more interesting because the World Bank has stepped in with an unprecedented $1 billion in investment, to drive $5 billion across the private sector, that being in essence state utilities.
None of whom are cycle led or overly burdened by a downturn in the markets.
Note this from the February 2020 presentation (slide 9) ;
"Preparing for the 2,000 MW energy storage allocation in South Africa’s 2019 Integrated Resource Plan, and other African projects within the World Bank’s 17.5 GWh energy storage roll-out programme"
Note "the other African projects within the World Bank 17.5 GWh energy storage roll-out programme."
I talked earlier about how well BMN have connected themselves with this new industry and business driver.
Mikhail Nikomarov is the chair of the SAESA. The SAESA is one of 29 organisations that form the World Bank led Energy Storage Partnership (ESP). That being the very ESP whose stakeholder consultation meeting, BMN presented at on 21st January 2020.
The above quote from BMN is presented under "Deployment" and is specifically stating that BE is preparing, meaning something is coming and the company vying for that work, has a man on the inside.
World Bank ;
"The ESP will complement the WBG’s $1 billion battery storage investment program announced in September 2018 to significantly scale up support to battery storage projects and raise an additional $1 billion in concessional finance."
The $1-5 billion of funding doesn't just exist for BMN. They are sat at the table that is developing the methods to unlock it, to make it a reality.
These sorts of developments should be major signals if the market were even paying attention.
So when does this all start to happen?
I have talked many times before here about the trigger point. That being the moment when the market finally gets it.
What I mean by that is the point at which it becomes clear that BMN is not a miner but an fully integrated energy storage play that can generate revenues streams against the cycle. A very important ingredient because it is at that point that investors can see that BMN has a choice and can exploit whichever market is most beneficial at any given moment in time.
Be it steel when the cycle is up or VRFBs when it is down, though clearly it will not be so simple in reality.
That is why the RedT announcement on Monday was so significant. It demonstrates that a expansion of the rental product in the real world, with now 2 VRFB partners operating with it. It is a matter of time before Enerox goes the same route.
That will mean that 3 of the leading VRFB companies in the world, with significant project pipelines that to this point, have struggled due to a lack of product and noncompetitive pricing, will have the means to demonstrate to their potential customers, a way of getting their projects built for far less upfront cost. A considerable development as the world potentially starts to run short on finance.
One 2MW project does not act as the trigger but the snowball is certainly now in motion.
The more projects in play, the more the concept becomes proven, the more confidence grows in the market.
At some point the market will realise that there is no turning back and then the predictions for VRFB market share etc will begin to be factored in. That's when the trigger point will come and it may just end up being driven harder because the events are taking placed during the lower end of the cycle.
Of course it will also be affected by the size of the projects and their ability to excite the market, which is why the Eskom BESS project is so significant. However, ultimately it will be about repeat business and a demonstration of longevity. It is that which will excite the bigger investors, which is ultimately what BMN needs in this volatile investment world.
Now imagine for one second that VRFB aren't reasonably successful but actually as successful as the predictions state with 50,000mtV of new vanadium demand created.
Imagine the lithium like scramble as miners that could not achieve finance to get their material out of the ground, get busy trying to do just that.
The reality is that well before they even get started. Well before the triggers kick in to allow them that thought, that opportunity, BMN will growing into that market.
If BMN have to hod at 4,500mtV until the market picks up then that's a shame but if it does pick up, then with minimum 3 VRFB company investments, guaranteed supply agreements and a place on the BOD, who is going to know that the extra supply chain inputs are needed first?
Who will have the least resistant path to expansion out there, the more spare built capacity?
Who will be able to realise finance first to expand into it? Who ultimately holds all the cards because of the efforts they are putting in now, to get it off the ground?
To be a part of it investors have to believe that the market is there that the concept is achievable. I do.
Investors have to appreciate that now is not about dividends or quick fixes for the SP or even how much the company is currently valued at. Now is about ensuring that the plan stays its course and that BMN is positioned correctly for when it all kicks off.
There has to be patience and things may ultimately take longer than liked but the key point in all of this, is that we are not talking about a miner who is predicting a market that is somewhere out in the stratosphere, owned by others outside of their control.
BMN is the controller of their own destiny. They are taking the lead. The VRFB market that the statisticians write their yearly reports about is the one that BMN is working towards creating. That's what a fully integrated vanadium platform is all about.
I believe in this management team and their ability to land this and land it well. They are proven deal makers through Vametco and Lemur. They have form and have positioned themselves in all the right places to give themselves the very best chance, be it Vanitec, the S.A. Energy Storage Committee or the IDC and Eskom itself.
So that level of success is very much on, it is in their hands and if it comes to pass, then the most connected owner of the largest high grade vanadium resources in the world, is going to do very well indeed.
The rant continues. .
I am going to say it again. The ultimate success of VRFBs outside of China, is going to be centred around the efforts that we are seeing from BMN today.
That is why right now this is all about cash flows and the ability to maintain the plans to support the VRFB sector and create the supply chains that feed into it.
I do not see a problem right now on that front. At 4,500mtV by close of play 2020, they are well set up for the first phase.
Now I have said this many times here but i will say it again.
BMN do not need the VRFB sector to be successful in order to make a lot of money from the supply chain. They only need the part they have chosen to be involved in to work, in order for that success to be realised. That said they are backing 3 of the biggest players there are and clearly pipe lining more.
That battery energy storage roll outs in significant quantities will happen and are here to stay, is a given. So the market is there. Is so. The question mark is now can VRFB gain market share?
The VRFB is the best product on the market for a good number of long duration solutions. Fact. Long duration batteries are expected to be the lion shares of new projects moving through the 2020s.
The VRFB is cost competitive with lithium already, when the lifecycle cost is fully considered, as is the bequest of Eskom for their BESS system in their tender. Lovely.
The introduction of guaranteed supply and guaranteed pricing of vanadium feed, pushes the pendulum even further in VRFB's direction. The introduction of a partnered system where by the vanadium company benefits as part of the consortium, leads to a better relationship and a willingness to bend in order to succeed. WIN/WIN. Lovely.
It is believed that the last ingredient in all of this is educating the lithium intoxicated customer base that VRFBs are a worthy replacement.
Fire hazards in lithium-ion batteries have already helped start that ball rolling.
Delivering projects like the Oxford hub battery will go a long way to help further. However, that thought process is a fallacy because the interest was always there, it is the ability to obtain materials and supply at the right price that has hindered them.
From the BMN REdt RNS dated 1st Nov 2019 ;
"Real, near-term deployment opportunities with major buyers that offer robust follow-on sales opportunities."
"A burgeoning project pipeline that will allow the merged entity to achieve the economies of scale essential for cost-competitiveness quicker; to increase investor confidence; and to raise the bankability of its products and projects."
So the reality is there are enough customers out there already and through its VIP, BMN is gaining access to them and the value chain that comes with them.
So whats missing? Truth is nothing and that's ultimately my point.
Unless you are a trader, of which I am sure there are many present (good morning), the actual share price right now does not matter. Yes I know it is so easy to say and so much harder to tolerate.
However, right now BMN do not need a capital raise. Not even to own 20% in a yet to prove itself Redt restart.
All that really matters now is seeing an end to the coronavirus and clear signs that the Chinese production engine is getting back up to full speed and staying there.
Those two factors will drive a great may stocks in the coming weeks. What will not happen is that a magic wand will unfortunately not be shook and all of this will go away. The sooner investors get used to the situation the better they will likely feel, as we all begin to place what is happening now in the context of the bigger longer term picture.
Note the following article regarding CRU Group thoughts on the vanadium market now in 2020.
“Looking at a historical price chart will give any financier or investor pause in putting money behind a vanadium project,”
When vanadium prices cratered in 2015, many convinced themselves they weren't going to ever come back. The same panic driven herd mentality is helping drive the markets now and vanadium isn't actually doing all that bad at the moment.
Whatever it does in the coming months, it isn't going away. Infact with VRFBs contributing even a small percentage, it is only going to see its markets strengthened.
New mines aren't going to get financed in such a volatile pricing environment.
The biggest thing BMN ever achieved was getting into production without the need for debt. That is going to pay significant dividends as the world goes through more difficult times. When we come out of the other side, their position and their ability to expand into any growth, is going to make for a very powerful story.
That's even without knowing that it is BMN that is pioneering VRFB development and the models in which it can see the most success.
I read comments here about BMN needing VRFBs to somehow save their business model, their future. The reality is that BMN are the biggest driver of VRFBs in the whole damn world. It is they that are creating the rental models. It is they that are supporting the top VRFB companies, when no one else will. It is they that are prepared to sacrifice profit front end, to reap the rewards of market share later down the line.
So if VRFBs are successful, then outside China at least, BMN will be ultimately responsible.
If so then BMN will benefit the most and will hold a remarkably strong position in both the supply chain that feeds them but also the companies that produce them at a time when new vanadium will still be struggling to get out of the ground.
Hard to appreciate in weeks like this but that's where I am.
We are paying the price for an overstretched stock market (not necessarily AIM), a potential oil price war, a virus with an unknown economic outcome and a US president who wants to blame everyone else and refuses to lead.
Its a toxic combination but like all things in life, it will eventually pass.
2008 crisis saw a 40% drop in FTSE in 12 months.
This current drop is now 28% in just 3 weeks. Its vicious and not many companies aren't being affected by it. But it will pass and good companies with good management and strong balance sheets, will come out of it just fine. My view is that BMN is very much on that list and with their energy storage division, has as good a chance as any other miner out there, to succeed, even in a downturn.
In the meantime, this period has to be lived through and the market has to stabilize.
@ShearClass It is in my opinion not wise to judge miners against the market in general.
Since 19th Feb BMN is down 50%
Evraz in same time period is down 40%
Those 2 miners are big in vanadium but are far more diversified than BMN.
So the extra 10% or so is justified, as it stands.
We are witnessing a market wide sell off from the very top of a bubble in stocks, driven by state reactions to a virus, coupled with an oil price war.
One could not ask for a more toxic set of circumstances and yet the desire is to try to find something wrongs with BMN and/or its strategy.
Why does BMN have to be so special right now? Why can't it just be accepted that at times like this, miners get hit and hit hard.
Whats key is can they survive it? My view is yes, so I stand and I wait, as best I can, until we hit the bottom, which at this rate can't be all that far away.
The market is busy trying to price something it doesn't truly understand. That means it will over correct to the downside.
That's life in the markets, be it this is an extraordinary event.