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From my 27th March post.

"As time passes, more and more confidence can be applied to the longer-term benefits this brings to those companies that gain from this conflict. With helium its more tricky because it is lesser known. Even many investors here, including myself, have had to educate themselves over many months. The market isn't normally looking so intensely at one industry. But mainstream media can really help with that education, and the training can sometimes be very rapid."

I would say that mainstream media has stepped in, and so a rapid education is currently underway, meaning the slow realisation phase has now come to an end.

Thanks, Brentw1. This part particularly caught my eye.

"Cliff Cain, commercial manager at exploration company Pulsar Helium, said he knew of a contract agreed last week at $0.90 per cubic foot, almost triple pre-war levels, as buyers scrambled to secure short-term supply."

Bodes very well for initial spot sales and beyond.

Apologies "aren't aware of"

I think we are still in the early stages of this realisation. Investors are looking at helium plays in general, but perhaps are aware of the contract structures, the lack of a spot market and the massive advantage Helix has in hitting first production as this conflict broke out.

CNN is also covering the helium shortage. People are waking up to helium, and that means they will be seeking out stocks that produce it. As we already know, nobody is better placed than Helix right now because they aren't already tied into long-term contracts.

https://x.com/FurkanGozukara/status/2037327917911273874?s=20

The market isn't in full panic mode yet; if it were, then oil prices would be much higher.

There is still a belief that a quick, high-impact solution can be achieved, but each day that passes, that position looks more and more untenable. Foolish even.

As time passes, more and more confidence can be applied to the longer-term benefits this brings to those companies that gain from this conflict. With helium its more tricky because it is lesser known. Even many investors here, including myself, have had to educate themselves over many months. The market isn't normally looking so intensely at one industry. But mainstream media can really help with that education, and the training can sometimes be very rapid.

Helium shortages are now going mainstream.

This is potentially when the fun really starts, and with Trump extending his deadline by another 10 days, the likelihood of a solution coming during that time is diminished.

https://news.sky.com/story/three-areas-industry-is-warning-government-about-due-to-iran-war-13524555

Here also is the presentation from the Yellowstone investor evening.

The most interesting slide is the one covering the financial model.

I am aware of the drop-off in stock. Upon enquiry, I was told that picking costs at THG are item-related and not weight-related. So it makes sense to stock higher value single items or multi items. I got the sense that other changes are also afoot.

https://mcusercontent.com/d9f3814a5cdba5c9f20cd1b96/files/d7c39719-a3b1-8a07-cb06-2a906f5b6dd5/Huddled_presentation_Yellowstone.pdf

I've just come across this extended interview with #HUD Executive Chairman Martin Higginson.

The section between 1hr 02mins to 1hr 24mins is particularly insightful and the most energetic I've seen him talk about the opportunity Huddled now has before it.

I've said on multiple occasions that the introduction of THG fulfilment was the game-changer here. What is now happening with the expansion into marketplaces is Huddled is beginning to exploit that competitive advantage.

Thanks to much lower delivery costs, "We've now got the best deals on planet."

Best deals with free next-day delivery mean Huddled goods appear at the top of user searches on websites like Temu. Meaning that Huddled's marketing base has effectively gone orbital. He also talks about acquiring other e-commerce businesses later down the line and leveraging the THG fulfilment to enable free next-day delivery. Well worth a listen. Goodness knows why they haven't promoted this chat more.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xShKHts_lh8&t=3731s

@Ezhik, I will be clear here. I am no expert, which is why I asked AI for help. Gas compression was not considered, but after running this through AI, I was told it does not affect fill time.

In reality, it isn't critical now. What's most important is that Helix is one step closer to selling helium, and every step in that direction reduces the risk and increases the potential for cash flows to commence. That in turn further de-risks their balance sheet, reduces the risk of additional funding and increases the chances of further drilling commencing. All of which supports a rising valuation.

It is important to appreciate that there is a much bigger valuation to be had here simply from that scenario playing out in 2026 and the previous $500/MCf guidance pricing being achieved. I've posted here previously that I thought softer pricing would be realised due to the oversupply issue. With every passing day, that discount falls away, and instead, we can start planning for premiums to that price. But we don't need a premium for this to be a big success.

I shared some calcs on here when the tube trailer was announced.

By those calculations, running 3 wells at 1,500 MCF/d and 1.1% grade helium, I would say roughly 3 days.

As forecast, following the estimated 3-5 days of transit from Texas, the tube trailer is on site this week, so no "false hope/expectation" as some called it. Just reality.

Now let's go sell some (expensive) helium.

Taking the heat out of the debate and thinking logically. Post this placing and assuming the 100m retail shares are taken up Kefi will have 13.735BN shares in issue.

At 1.2p share, the business is valued at $221m.

The financing metrics published on 11th Feb (now defunct but let's not go there) stated that Tulu Kapi alone was valued at $1.1bn when gold prices averaged $4,000/oz. But this also included a further $20m in gold stream royalties, which now needs to be factored back in.

On top of this come Saudi and all other opportunities, which are now well-financed.

This is why I will stay put for now. The funding will likely have a big overhang, but progress on the ground should help counter this. Gold prices will also have their influence in both directions. But get the mine built and into production, and there is still very good money to be had here. But what a messy way to go about it.

Here's my thoughts copied over from X.

With everything else going on, I completely missed this placing by #KEFI.

I have said for some time that some further equity dilution was my preferred route to these overly generous royalty deals. But these things need to be managed better.

Why on earth did Kefi fanny about for several months, then wait until gold tanks to raise this capital?

Also, how did "a residual US$30 million of equity-risk capital is also in the process of being fully signed up this month" turn into $45m of capital?

I applaud the desire to extract maximum value from other assets, but first and foremost, the value sits within Tulu Kapi. So why not raise what was needed for that and then enjoy the value that brings before seeking out further funding for other avenues?

The strike price for this raise even comes in under that achieved in late December, with more project milestones achieved.

That said, I should still make good money from this investment because the financing package is now finally complete. So, I will stay put for now. But I would be giving those highly experienced project advisors the boot.

Further points.

This is not the way to launch a major gold project, and Kefi management has diluted more than it should have. But on the other side of the coin, the economic metrics should now improve as the indicated $20m of further gold royalties falls away.

”Damage to Qatar LNG trains ‘will cut helium output by 14%’ for many years.“

https://x.com/gasworld_us/status/2034678434807636431?s=46&t=6uXiPPBc0pslakpmlxiTnQ

I said here a long time ago that I think Bo Sear's final destination is a sale o he exits in favour of a new CEO who better suits a company build out. My reason is that I don't see him as someone who wants to be in that role. But I may have him wrong.

For now, this is all about building out production to take the maximum advantage of what is an absolute gift.

That headline all but removes any risk associated with Helix missing out on the helium price surge. Helix now holds all the cards and will likely enjoy elevated pricing through spot and long-term contracts for some time to come.

At some point, the brokers will need to revisit their numbers.

QATARENERGY CEO TELLS REUTERS: TWO OUT OF 14 OF OUR LNG TRAINS AND ONE OUT OF TWO OF OUR GAS-TO-LIQUIDS (GTL) FACILITY WERE DAMAGED IN THE ATTACKS

WE WILL BE LOSING 12.8 MILLION TONS PER YEAR OF LNG FOR THREE TO FIVE YEARS, AROUND 17% OF QATAR’S EXPORT LNG

WE MAY HAVE TO DECLARE FORCE MAJEURE ON LONG-TERM CONTRACTS FOR UP TO FIVE YEARS FOR LNG SUPPLIES TO ITALY, BELGIUM, KOREA AND CHINA

We need to understand what this means for the actual production ramp-up post-descalation.

What is possible and when, but nearer-term markets need to factor in a longer shutdown.

https://x.com/JavierBlas/status/2034628353685127188?s=20

New tweet states "transport trailer en route to our Rudyard production plant."

Somebody is reading this BB.

But as I have been trying to point out, this is not about the exact timing of the first tube trailer sale. There are much bigger things in play now.