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I ran a comparison of the two Hagshaw LDES projects (Hagshaw LDES and Spirebush) over the weekend.

The driver behind this was my review of the NESO register, which, whilst updated twice weekly, currently shows some Cap and Floor projects with connection dates before 2030. Spirebush is one of them, whilst Hagshaw has a post-2030 date. With the help of AI, I found that these dates don't have any current meaning because any Cap and Floor LDES project will be given priority in the queue if it wins an award through the scheme.

It also became clear that there is overcapacity at the moment, but this is a shorter-duration issue and should not affect long-term duration because they are set to solve a different issue where there are shortages on the grid.

Looking at the two Hagshaw projects, the 500MW LDES has already made it through the consultancy process and satisfied all publicly disclosed concerns on the ECU portal. This is helped by its location on land that has existing outline industrial planning permission. It was therefore moved to the determination phase as far back as May 2025, whereby the Scottish ministers review the application and specifically the consultation results. I have read that this is a process that should take months, not years.

I am sure some here already know all of this, but I thought it was worth posting anyway.

The Hagshaw LDES is massive, and there may be concerns around Invinity's ability to deliver it, but I could be wrong. However, from a planning point of view, which for me is the hardest ingredient here, it looks advanced enough to meet the Ofgem 2030 completed goal.

If anyone has any thoughts or further details, I would welcome reading them.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/2056266462310883808?s=20

Temu is less about where it is today and more about the general direction of travel. A month ago, sales there were averaging less than 50 per day.

Peeko (discount dragons) is still a very young marketplace seller and is still building up a regular buying base. c. 100 orders per day also need to be placed in the context of the overall strategy and avenues for sales. By my count, they have 5-6 such channels either currently in play or being built. If each of them were to deliver 100 orders per day, then the difference to daily revenues and profitability would be very meaningful indeed.

The share price is simply awful, but it's been pulled down by very light trading. I count 42m shares traded since the start of February. That is less than 10% of the shares in issue, but it has caused a 65% fall in the valuation. If/when Huddled delivers solid progress, such figures could be traded in just one week. Then let's see what the market truly thinks.

The marketplace figures are still small fry, and they have much work to do, but the next-day delivery advantage is clearly landing well with customers, and reviews remain very positive. So as long as the stock keeps coming through, then there is a solid growth business in play here.

That should read that the brokers are reporting that Invinity will be profitable in 2028, driven by the UK Cap and Floor projects (assuming they execute that amount of work).

They assume $304m in 2028 revenues, leading to $23m in net income. If indeed achievable, then that is a world away from where EOS is currently performing.

@fairlysolvent I think before anything else is considered, the size of the contract win through Cap and Floor dominates everything else because it has the ability to dwarf the current MC.

When I look at the EOS valuation vs their contracted backlog vs the level of losses they are generating, then even at heavily discounted (UK) levels, there is room for a significant re-rate, even before we start talking about other factors.

That then decides financing options, interest and levels of entry. That is why I see some sort of financing coming around September, because it should give ample enough time for the UK Cap and Floor to influence things.

The mix of projects could also be a factor because the Frontier Power projects come with working capital support post-FID. Perhaps not game-changing, but certainly a factor worth considering. I also wonder whether they will/can leverage the Copwood asset.

Post that comes the profitability angle. The brokers are reporting that Cap and Floor projects will be profitable when they are delivered from 2028 onwards. This ties in with the Invinity messaging in the FY24 report. Further positive messaging around that from the company will also drive funding/partnership interest and may allow confidence to build that the next funding injection will be the last.

The other left field option I am thinking about is government support or the potential that they can leverage the Cap and Floor contract backlog, but even then, I still see one large funding injection over the next 6-12 months.

When all is said and done, if Invinity delivers several GWh of backlog, then their outlook and the way the company is perceived will change substantially. EOS is the greatest example of that, but ITM, as a UK-listed entity, demonstrates that contract wins is rewarded by UK investors. They currently have a backlog of £152m (be it with some very interesting partnerships) and trade at a £1.1BN MC, albeit with a substantial cash pile to support their efforts.

I should add (because I may not have explained that very well) that I am essentially discounting any raise before the accounts are released, because last year proves this isn't necessary.

I am also assuming that the UK Cap and Floor decision on supported projects is released in the next few weeks, and certainly before the half-yearly Invinity accounts in late Sept.

I've noted some chat on another BB around Invinity funding and a possible fundraise.

My tuppence worth on this subject.

When Invinity released their FY24 accounts on 30th May 2025, they reported £32m in YE24 cash.

In their early May 2026 updates, both Invinity brokers have YE25 cash at between £30m-£31m. So very similar.

In their FY24 accounts, Invinity declared in their going concern that the business would remain cash flow positive in the forecast period (up to 30th June 2026). Subsequently, Invinity raised £25m in Sept 2025 through a subscription, which introduced a strategic partner for the Indian market.

This time around should be no different because cash levels are very similar, and if anything, the workload for the coming 12 months has increased, be it that some of this is down to the fact that projects have been delayed (One large US contract is mentioned in the broker report as being expected in FY26 but now coming next year).

Most importantly, we also have the UK Cap and Floor Scheme about to be decided, which is a major inflexion point for the business and should deliver a significant valuation boost (as well as leveraging opportunities) even if it is mildly successful.

But the reality is that VRFB-related projects dominate stream 2 of the tender at 3.5GW of the total 4GW on offer. All projects have to prove themselves but assuming they deliver a solid investment case that won't place too great a burden on the scheme floor, then they should do very well.

Never say never, but the chance that similar financial circumstances to last year will drive Invinity to raise funds before this tender outcome is decided is, for me, extremely low. My worst-case scenario is that they add funds from September onwards, but how that comes, I remain open-minded about. The two investors from Sept last year still hold all their shares. If a similar subscription set-up is applied (which, if the Cap and Floor scheme really delivers, must be a strong possibility), then the finalisation of future funding may actually lead to a very positive share price reaction because it could be the final puzzle piece for group profitability.

Viewpoints welcome.

FYI, the first Peeko live sale on Whatnot is scheduled for 2pm today.

You will need an account to view it. It is under the Deal Hunting category.

Huddled has launched a couple of token alcohol products on Temu to get the ball rolling. I expect more will follow.

Given the limited alcohol on the site, it is to be expected that few people will be looking for it there. Next, I expect more alcohol offerings, followed by dedicated PR from Huddled or Temu themselves. The biggest obstacle was getting it onto the site and being able to ensure only over-18s-only sales.

a new maystery beauty box is now live. here is an affiliate on tiktok plugging it to her c. 168k followers.

https://www.tiktok.com/@alison***makeup/video/7638237002235743510?q=peeko%20mystery%20beauty%20box&t=1778491403516

Yes, it won't take much success from here to make a significant difference to the valuation.

First alcohol units added to Temu.

looks like at least one affiliate was selling the beauty box. well worth reading the comments. perhaps the reason why it sold out?

https://www.tiktok.com/@alison***makeup/video/7634890634200993046?q=peeko%20beauty%20box&t=1778218421242

Excellent post DJW01

The answer to that question is unfortunately not. Small volume is taking us ever lower. Incredibly oversold now on the daily.

Some positives, as I see it.

The beauty box has sold out across all sites. Waiting to see when the next batch comes out.

The Peeko TikTok channel is witnessing a decent, consistent uplift in followers. I count c. 1,1675 added in the last week, which is a c. 18% increase.

The Peeko eBay store has increased its items significantly, and this is beginning to lead to increased sales, but it's still early days. There are now 172 items on sale to what is a c. 178m monthly audience on that site.

The Temu store has become the "12th best-selling local warehouse store" on the site before the introduction of alcohol sales, which I am told are being held up by Temu bureaucracy. This shows how limited grocery sales on the site are and the opportunity that Peeko has once it is further bedded in.

Peekop stocks have lifted to 350. KI would dearly love to see more, but the spread of stock across what are three great new sales outlets is far more important given what they can bring in terms of brand exposure.

Thank you, economist2023.

With Invinity production right on Hagshaw's doorstep and its location on consented industrial land, it has everything going for it, and if it does land, then it will be quite a remarkable result vs the current Invinity MC.

I came across this article in my Invinity travels. My thoughts as posted on X are included.

Two key ingredients for Invinity.

"Ofgem will consider technology diversity during the assessment stage. It may adjust the shortlist to avoid over-reliance on a single technology, which could mean swapping out some Li-ion battery projects in favour of pumped storage hydro or flow schemes."

What this says is that Invinity, as the only VRFB provider in the scheme, will win work if the technology diversity angle plays out which we have no reason to doubt at this time.

"Ofgem will assess all eligible projects at the same time, but its methodology naturally favours schemes that can deliver sooner."

Invinity is on record as saying,

"The Company expects that its established manufacturing capability in the UK will enhance its ability to deliver as part of the first delivery track, giving it an advantage over solutions with a longer delivery timeline.”

I'd be interested to find out what the lithium-ion project developers are doing to align themselves with the local content element of their batteries. Are they set up for it? I am sure plans are in play, but Invinity UK manufacturing is bound to help their cause further.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/2052299725185880369?s=20

https://modoenergy.com/research/en/gb-great-britain-long-duration-energy-electricity-storage-ldes-cap-floor-ofgem-eligibility-september-2025-assessment-bess

Having got very excited about the UK Cap and Floor when it was first announced back in February 2025, I never for one minute thought we would be this close to the outcome and still be trading at sub £100m MC.

I appreciate that project wins have been fewer than anticipated, but progress on the Endurium battery has been very good, and interest in long-duration alternatives to lithium-ion has only grown further. So I don't know if it's wider market sentiment, disbelief in what is possible, a lack of understanding, who knows? As the only VRFB supplier in this tender, it is very difficult to conclude that they come away with nothing, especially with such political interest shown in their Made in Britain tech and the jobs these projects could create.

Given the size of these tenders and government involvement, there is an understandably long lead-in and lumpiness to contract wins for Invinity.

If successful, LODES will demonstrate that all the hard work and waiting were worth it, and it will help drive the Invinity valuation in a manner ITM has recently enjoyed. be it that they have a very healthy cash pile behind them.

Morning all,

I have seen posts discussing Hagshaw LDES in the past, so I thought I would just double-check my conclusion here. In the planning document, it is stated as being 500MW of capacity but up to 6 Gigawatt hours (GWh) of electricity storage and export capability. This is because it is a 12-hour duration battery project.

That means if this project is successful, it will require 6GWh of Invinity VRFBs. The latest (house) broker updates state that "the company now expects to be able to profitably deliver large-scale Endurium flow batteries at c.$250/ kWh from 2028E." This is the first year that any UK LDES projects are scheduled to roll out.

If that is indeed the case, then this one project is worth a minimum of $1.5BN to Invinity.

However, I say minimum because I do question whether Invinity and their client could complete the financial aspects of this project based on a proposed future cost to produce. That doesn't make sense to me, so it may well be that they have set a higher cost, at least to begin with.

Thoughts welcome.

@Beevorma.

That doesn't make sense to me because I have applied the 19% to April, which sits outside the Q1 seasonality zone. Beyond April, we cannot safely assume that the 19% still applies because efforts to further increase sales in NY alongside wider growth plans aren't guaranteed, and there is no proof that additional growth there is any easier to come by than in other states or through other commercial plans.

April should be maximum pain, be it that the 19% is only a mean rule as opposed to a guaranteed share, but again, only if STX were chasing more prescriptions there, which we don't know yet.

But as a guide, the 19% of total April sales (roughly 3,080) is a good enough guide to what the maximum pain is and what would need to be replaced if they cannot process any Medicaid prescriptions moving forward, which is highly unlikely. I hope what I have written makes sense.