RE: Update6 May 2026 08:04
Extrapolating the numbers from slide 14 of the presentation tells me the following.
March 2026 had around 13,700 covered prescriptions; Jan had c. 13,300, and Feb had c. 12,000. Total = 39,000
Jan at 13,300 means April 2026 was running at 16,200 (+22% stated in the presentation). As a YoY comparison, April 2025 was running at c. 11,200, which means prescriptions are up c. 5,000 or 45% YoY.
There were 155k covered prescriptions in 2025, of which NY Medicaid was 19% = 29,450. That equates to 7,360 per quarter. We don't know what the figure is in 2026, but if we continue the trend, then one would expect that 19% of April's prescriptions were NY Medicaid = 3,080.
Even if we were to strip out the entire contribution from NY Medicaid in April and employ this larger but not proven Medicaid figure, the Shield team has still managed to increase covered prescriptions YoY by c. 1,900 or 17% in just one month.
However, the likelihood that they lose all of the NY Medicaid business is extremely low.
The sales teams have also already pivoted efforts elsewhere, so the Medicaid contribution may be less than 19%. The NY Medicaid regulations came into force on 23rd April, which means at least the last of the 4 weeks mentioned by the CEO was already affected.
There is also the fact that in March 2026, digital marketing hit its highest audience with 90,000 searches for Accrufer. This compares to c. 65-70k in Feb and 60k in January. That is very solid growth and supportive evidence that their digital marketing is working and can lead to further expanded growth in covered prescriptions as the year unfolds.
Lastly, this is a very capable management team. Andy Hurley, the CCO, especially came across very well, and they clearly have additional funds to deploy should they see fit to drive marketing to ensure growth this year.
But the key point here is that, whilst it is early days in Q2, April has already demonstrated sufficient YoY growth to cover even a total loss of NY Medicaid business and deliver decent net growth. Anything they can do on top of this to replace the NY Medicaid business merely adds to this.
Note - These are rough numbers, but I have tried to be conservative, and they are accurate enough to make a solid enough conclusion
The share price has taken too big of a kicking off the back of this.