Member Info for BigBiteNow

@Punter1234,

I'm not sure what this conversation is now about. Your response was to a post that I produced, which centred on EV/EBITDA valuations and was an answer to what I saw as a ludicrous idea that high-growth helium plays, once producing, are measured purely on the revenues they create at any given time.

The reality is that such valuations are driven by a number of core drivers. One of which is resources with reserves being the highest grade. Another is indeed sentiment, and that is encouraged or discouraged by the quality of communication. It is this factor that often leads to differences in valuation. Over time, such differences normally rectify themselves because the core economic drivers take over.

We could get into the minute detail here, but it really shouldn't be necessary because this is not about which helium play is better, but being aware of the sizeable gap in valuation, which right now should work in Helix's favour because these other plays demonstrate that helium remains a popular investment, especially when US-based.

What I can say is that in terms of HE1, I clearly demonstrated a series of RNSs that cover the first gas RNS to the present day progress and the effect this had on the valuation. At one point, HE1 had added 100%, and it had nothing to do with actual sales timelines; more progress along the path. In theory, Helix should achieve the same outcome.

In terms of PLSR as a holder, you will know that it was the US Federal confirmation of their helium-3 discovery (19th Jan) that drove a significant uplift in their share price (it added 50% in 3 trading days). Helix has discovered similar grades of helium-3 but hasn't gone down the same path (yet). Instead, they are using the readings as a signal that hydrogen resources sit within their land package. What I will say is that PLSR has continued to deliver since then, with some excellent drill results and improving flow rates. But even with their excellent grades, they still aren't much better than Helix because of the number of wells they have to drill, the CO2 processing headache (increased CAPEX) and the lower flow rates.

But what I will say is that PLSR overall reporting is much stronger than Helix, driven by their TSX listing. I trust now that production has been achieved, Helix will begin introducing the sort of upgrades that usually come once cash in the bank starts to rise. That equals better communication which in turn builds trust and allows said valuation gaps to close.

@Punter1234,

You have misunderstood my post, which is perhaps down to my wording as much as anything else.

I am not having a dig at any other helium company. I was merely pointing out what constitutes value and where Helix is with that compared to these other plays. This also ties into my post from yesterday on the wide gap in valuation between the likes of PLSR and HE1 vs HEX.

Helix is the only one with confirmed reserves which carry the highest certainty and valuation. I am sure Blue Star (HE1) will reach that point also, but until they do, their valuation will be held back. The same goes for PLSR. This isn't to say that those companies won't deliver or that some expectations of reserves conversion aren't priced in. But full pricing cannot come until an independent report is published. What that says is those companies' valuations have more to give, which further compounds my argument around the valuation disconnect.

Hope that helps.

It's an excellent interview because it confirms a very decent commencement rate of 1,500 Mcf per well. So 75% of the guided volume and the purity is ultra-high at 99.9%.

When talking about output, he also stated $500Mcf pricing and the fact that discussions with offtakers have already taken place ahead of site visits. That shows confidence in the sort of pricing they expect.

He also talked about tying in the Inez well in "short order," which demonstrates confidence in that well.

Nomad-driven RNSs can sometimes undermine progress, and it takes an interview to flesh out the important detail.

Significant early revenues lie directly ahead.

If I apply the methodology and logic at the start of this thread to the likes of PLSR or HE1, then as of today, they should be valued at near zero.

There is something called forward EV/EBITDA. There is also something called helium reserves, which the likes of Blue Star (HE1's partner) and indeed PLSR still don't have.

The clue was in the broker's wording I posted last night.

"Starting production validates reservoir deliverability and development economics, enabling conversion of resources into proved reserves, and supporting valuation based on cash flow and reserve metrics rather than risked exploration value."

Having delivered a 49p per share valuation based on risked exploration value, is it sensible to conclude that a switch to EV/EBITDA post a major de-risking milestone leads to a reduction in the overall valuation?

Their current TP of 49p is based on risked exploration value because they are awaiting offtakes and/or actual revenues and drilling plans to update their model.

Progress or lack of at the Inez #1 well is annoying and is a temporary setback. There is no denying that, but it hasn't gone away, and when they return to it, it represents the continuation of reserves building and EBITDA growth post this initial 3-well tie-in. The idea that the SP stands still, awaiting the next EBITDA injection to complete, is at best misguided. The idea that no forward earnings or potential are included in the valuation is just wrong. On that basis, no junior explorer would ever get off the ground. This is not to say that we don't see periods of market indifference or share price pullbacks. For those trading the stock that may present an opportunity or drive them to pastures they perceive to be more golden. But for those holding long-term, it shouldn't be an issue because the overall investment case remains intact.

It is also important not to lose sight of the fact that Inez #1 sits in the Southern Dome. To date, Helix has reported independent reserves for the Northern Dome, and even these are only based on what the first few wells have unlocked. As Helix continues to drill out both domes, the reserves and EBITDA should increase, and with it, the long-term certainty of the asset to produce continuous revenues.

The combined effect should see brokers' setting significantly higher EV/EBITDA.

As an example of that growth, Hammam expects Helix to increase revenues (not EBITDA) from c. $9m in 2026 to c. $26m in 2027. That's c. 3x in 12 months.

c. 82% of those revenues are expected to be EBITDA = $21.45m

Delivering such growth should see a forward EV/EBITDA of 10-12 applied = $214m - $257m.

This includes nothing for Ingomar, helium-3 or hydrogen.

It won't all come at once, and helium pricing, along with macro effects, will play their part. But it starts with offtakes being secured, which in turn allows drilling to recommence, and then it's about success with the drill bit and time to price everything in.

I appear to be missing letters on my keyboard today. Apologies.

Hannam Borker note out today.

49p a share TP maintained.

"First output represents a major strategic and valuation inflection point, in our view, materially derisking the asset and transforming the company from a capital-consuming explorer into a cash-generating producer. Starting production validates reservoir deliverability and development economics, enabling conversion of resources into proved reserves, and supporting valuation based on cash flow and reserve metrics rather than risked exploration value."

Rather interestingly, they forecast $3m in cash as of YE25.

Having digested today's news a little more, I find myself asking, what is the play here for Helix?

To date, the BO Sears MO has been very much about not wasting time waiting to drill and test. I remember he even called out other helium explorers for taking too long to test. So, with such a big opportunity immediately before them, especially with the hydrogen, my main question is, why are they waiting? This is compounded by the fact that Helix pushed on with this Inez re-entry despite the extended completion period for the PSA plant. That implies they felt they had enough working capital as of December 2025, to complete the PSA, plus execute their plan for offtakes and no doubt allow a financial buffer too.

Waiting implies that money is now tight or that the weather needs to improve. If money is tight, then why not complete a small fundraise to complete Inez and drive the 5th drill after that? That would build more momentum and ensure that previously communicated plans from June 2025 were back on track.

Unless, of course, he feels that they don't need it, which in turn implies that the off-takes can be completed fairly quickly. Either that or sufficient off-takes (perhaps short-term contracts) are expected soon enough to render such a move irrelevant, and it is they that enable the sanctioning the Inez return.

I do appreciate that this is a small management team that may be feeling stretched right now, and so as decided to put its energy into cash flows. But as I say its not like them to pass up opportunities to progress their assets, especially when it comes to long lead milestones.

Hi TrekMadone,

Firstly, thanks for the heads up.

My last post demonstrates a very recent example of a very similar RNS produced when the first gas was reached. No off-takes were completed at that time, nor were any flow rates given. Yet the holder of that project saw a positive response, whilst Helix has dropped. My goal was to demonstrate that the content of the RNS was in line with this previous release, but I also wanted to explore the why. Like I say, I think its concern (rightly or wrongly) over funding. But let's see what the coming days bring.

It is worth reviewing the Blue Star Helium initial production RNS from 22nd Dec 2025. They didn't give any production figures, either or indeed confirm off-takes. What they did say is that short-term contract sales would commence in January. That RNS was good enough to increase HE1's MC by 25% in the next two days of trading. I would expect that we will see something similar from HEX.

https://www.bluestarhelium.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/61304679.pdf

Jump forward to 20th Jan and Blue Star updated again. First tube trailer on site for short-term contract sales, but long-term off-takes still being negotiated. HE1's share price effectively held its highs (25% gain on the initial RNS). It is worth noting that they have to tie in CO2 gas, which affects ramp up after the initial gas. Helix don't have that issue.

https://www.bluestarhelium.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/61307683.pdf

The latest RNS dated 12th Feb. They were still talking about progress on short-term contracts, and long-term contracts were still under discussion, but this RNS sent HE1 stock up 20% on the day. By the end of the next day, the move was 50%, bringing the total SP move since the first gas to 100% in a little under 2 months, and they only own 50% of that project.

https://www.bluestarhelium.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/61311714.pdf

The only justification I can find for Helix dropping back is uncertainty over funding. But as I have posted previously, the sums involved compared to the MC are minor. There is also no guarantee they will go for equity, but I do feel answering this question allows a much stronger reaction because it has been proven elsewhere.

Helix absolutely could have delkivered a more detailed RNS and one can argue that the Inez issue should have been communicated earlier.

But with today's update, the market now knows where Helix stands and when I read the follwoing I ask myself what has been lost? The answer is nothing.

But what I now have is a fully commissioned plant that works and is producing. My understanding is that the plant can handle upto 8 wells. Where Helix chooses to find them is still to be knownm but the existing field can already accommodate it. The idea that moving into production with that sort of already built capacity is somehow trumped by the fact that Inez #1 will require a re-entry is, for me, ludicrous. Some may have wanted to see a hydrogen update and perhaps were here just for that, but the long-term story remains intact and significant news flow is now in the pipeline, starting with off-takes.

The question is, do said off-takes include some sort of pre-pay deal that delivers Helix the cash required to re-enter Inez and drill more wells? Waiting for production lends itself to that idea.

"There is no compromise between the Hydrogen potential or the Helium reserves in the well. Currently the Company is fully focused on production and entering into offtake agreements and will re-visit the testing activities once it has entered into offtake agreements."

A big congratulations to the Helix team. They've gone from IPO to helium producer in c. 21 months and have achieved it with very limited funding. Plenty of other helium companies are talking a good game, but they haven't come anywhere near as far.

This significant milestone now unlocks sizeable growth, which will be appreciated over time.

Whether Helix re-rates today or in the coming weeks/months, it doesn't matter. What's most critical is that they have unlocked the potential and now just simply need to grow into it.

This RNS is the necessary GM for the remaining c. 5m of shares that do not have shareholder approval (c. £88k). The restof the raise and indeed the loan are already completed, and the shares are trading.

I said yesterday that I am confident that an update will come this week, and I stand by that. But I also recognise that, in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter, and pushing D-Day-type threads only leads to unnecessary nerves and often poor decision-making.

What matters the most is that the plant is essentially completed. Significant helium reserves have been discovered, and pricing and demand remain favourable.

But I still think Helix updates tomorrow, even if it feels like another holding RNS.

Those attempting to talk down Helix should spend some time comparing what this company has and how far along it is compared to PLSR.

PLSR is currently valued at £170m vs Helix at £55m.

In their latest tweet, Helix were much clearer on this week's pending update, changing the word intend to due.

"Production milestone update due week commencing 16 Feb."

I am confident this update will come through. My focus is more on what will come with it.

What does the ramp-up phase look like?

How many wells are connected?

Were they able to improve Inez #1 flow rates? When will it be tied in and what does this mean for the reserves upgrade?

What are the drill plans for 2026?

Is the hydrogen angle still alive?

3 wells tied in with a quick ramp-up and a decent forward drill plan is more than enough to push us to blue sky new highs.

Add an improved Inez #1 and show that the hydrogen or indeed helium-3 angle remains in play or has improved, and things could get really interesting in the coming weeks.

I don't see that on the website, but what I do see is that both Boop and Nutricircle have adjusted their delivery options to 24-hour express service only.

I see that as a real positive for their expansion into marketplace sales.

@Bagzzz718, you appear to be MrWhatHappened? on X, so I will answer you here and save some time.

Yes, the plant has taken far longer than the initial guidance, but my questions for you are this.

Does that truly matter at this late stage?

Does it undermine the investment case to the point that a long-term investment is no longer valid?

You told me in April 2025 that HEX was "a bit of a dog and totally unloved by the market. At least 5 months to wait until it moves anywhere." (see below).

Within 4 months, the stock had hit 30p. A 140% gain.

Even after this delay and market attention subsiding, we are still at double that valuation. This is a long-term investment for me, based on the US critical minerals policy, the massive AI infrastructure expansion, and management expertise in this field. All long-term investments hit bumps, but that doesn't matter if the fundamentals supporting the investment remain intact.

I applaud you for calling the delay and the need for more funding, but funding is never an issue in these markets if the management team is good enough and the cash is invested into tangible growth. That shows itself in the stock price performance since the June funding.

If you can provide a valid reasoning as to why this delay should lead me to sell my holding, I will gladly listen, but if all you are going to do is throw mud and try to act like some clever guru, then don't bother trying to communicate with me on X anymore, because it's just a waste of valuable time.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/1993313621754233065?s=20

The only development here that really matters is the completion of the processing plant and first gas production. Commentators are calling out poor communication when we literally had a video walk-through at the start of last week, telling us that integrity testing had commenced. Other than potential repairs for any leaks that may or may not have been found, the plant is as good as finished. They may well have had some remaining commissioning to complete post this testing, but the timescales involved are now small.

Production opens up offtakes and growth through new wells.

Everything else is a pure bonus.

The reason why I continue to hold US based and very soon to be helium producer #HEX.

Collectively, Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Meta are expected to spend a whopping $630-$650BN in CAPEX in 2026.

60-80% of this is expected to be spent on data centres and related infrastructure. The majority of that is aimed at the US.

Geopolitical and US political pressures should ensure that US-based material supply will be much sought after.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/2019691987323035654?s=20

Funding was the elephant in the room and has now been answered. Now the market can assess Huddled's progress and future potential without this hanging over them.l

The only part of this announcement I don't love is the interest rate being charged on the loan. But be clear, in such an illiquid stock that has barely tarded above the strike price level, this funding raise could have been a lot worse for investors. A high level of director and existing shareholder participation is also very supportive of future share price trading.

The early sales are an indication of what is possible and a demonstration that these sales channels are profitable. The funding allows them to be pursued more strongly. Nothing is ever perfect in investing, but overall, I am clear that this deal is more than good enough to ensure this stock rises as this year unfolds.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/2019674890085831090?s=20