RE: Where's this $60 million?28 Nov 2025 08:37
Morning all,
I am reasonably new to KEFI, having taken advantage of the dip on 7th November. However, I have been adding since.
To say the set-up is compelling is an understatement. Some commentators inevitably try to spread doubt given the importance of the next stage of funding, and yes, nothing is ever certain. But at the same time, these things are always about the percentage chances involved.
The biggest hurdle for KEFI was getting the banking syndicate together and their sign-off on the main debt package. Post that KEFI requires just $60m in further equity to complete their CAPEX needs. To place that in context, this represents just 32% of the current market valuation. Why? because gold prices are so high that such equity is essentially irrelevant at this stage.
The extract below more than proves that.
"At US$3,000/oz gold, the project demonstrates a levered NPV5 (100% basis) of US$1.1bn and a levered IRR of 89% at the start of construction. The levered NPV5 rises to US$1.3bn at the start of production. The project is expected to generate net cash flows of US$1.6bn to shareholders. Average
annual EBITDA in the first three years of production is estimated at US$387m."
The numbers are simply off the scale, even at $3,000/oz gold, making the equity portion left to find almost trivial, and we are currently a good $1,000/oz higher than those figures.
If anything, this is now about negotiating as fair a deal as possible and not giving too much of the prize away for such a small element. Included with this are the expectations of the Ethiopian government and local stakeholders. This is why my figures are all based around 70% final ownership, with any uplift deemed to be a bonus. You don't march into a country and take that sort of money out without somebody wanting a piece of it.
But even at that sort of stake, this is still a big winner post-finance and even more so as construction unfolds and production begins.
As I say, doubt can always linger until the deal is over the line, but the numbers say this is about when and not if.
At $3,000/oz and a 70% stake, KEFI would generate c. $270m in EBITDA in the first year of gold production alone. That equates to 450% of the $60m they are looking for, and they are closing the deal at +$4,000/oz. Enough said.