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Apologies that should have read...

"But after that comes detailed documentation and a set of conditions precedent, the first of which for the debt to be closed was the $100m in equity."

To be clear, we are waiting on the lender's approval for the remaining equity, which we are told is due to be drawn down in February. So, like I said the other day, it could come at any time in the next few weeks. That could be next Monday or a few weeks from now. It doesn't matter so long as it arrives in line with the schedule. All stakeholders will be aware of their duties to use their best endeavours or some similar contract clause to adhere to that schedule.

The debt package could also come at any time, but it is unlikely to come with the remaining equity. This is a package that will be executed in stages.

Do some research or ask AI. What Kefi is doing, led by its expert team, is standard practice. The binding agreements were key. But after that comes a set of conditions precedent, the first of which for the debt to be closed was the $100m in equity.

It is also standard practice to expend the equity before the debt is drawn down because the lenders want minimum risk, which means maximum progress without their cash being used. They also like their cash to buy tangible, retainable things like large plant and equipment.

Hope that helps.

"The drawdown from the Project equity investors has started for some and for the rest is expected to start February 2026."

The equity raised in December + the $20m from the Ethiopian government drawdowns have begun, albeit the Ethiopian government's spending is controlled by the authorities there. The rest is the Gold Streams and the KEFI EthioPrefs, which are due to commence in February. But even then, not all of that finance may be required at that point. It will depend on what the schedule is calling for at that time. I believe earthworks are next up.

Kefi cannot access the Chancery royalty payment until it is released, and that can't happen until the senior lenders sign it off.

In the meantime, and in line with the "schedule to match spending with funding", they will be employing existing cash and the funds raised on 22nd December.

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In addition, we know from the 22nd Dec 2025 RNS that "the various forms of equity risk capital will be largely deployed prior to debt drawdown during 2026."

The 6th Jan 2026 RNS also told us that the break-even cost "including also servicing of Gold Streams and EthioPrefs is US$1,946/oz." Whilst this is up from the $1,637/oz sum that included "all debt repayment," it is still less than half the gold price we see today and considerably lower than the forecast future prices for gold moving forward. I could also throw in the bullish climate, which inevitably leads to increased confidence, but that is a more speculative comment on my part.

So the senior lenders have little to object to, but even if they did, then I am as sure as I can be that it would have come whilst the equity package was being pulled together and not now that it is agreed. After all, we have a project finance advisor team who "have closed scores of these multi-jurisdictional transactions over decades".

If the signals from the senior lenders weren't positive, then Kefi could easily have issued more dilution on 22nd December. After all, they had plenty of scope to do so, given how small a raise it was vs the MC at that time. But they didn't, which is telling.

This is a finance package that is all but done, but requires steps to be executed in an order that respects the demands of the senior lenders, but commits to a payment schedule that keeps construction on track. Anyone attempting to belittle it is either being nefarious or simply hasn't read the details thoroughly enough.

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Looking at some of the recent comments here, I would encourage everyone to read the following Q&A response from 12th Jan properly.

"Q. When is full sign off of the detailed facility documentation / the project finance package expected?

A: The Lenders of US$240 million are committed as are equity investors for more than the required US$100 million, making up more than the US$340 million.

Having said that, our disclosures must and will also set out all details for the follow-through. Some additional comments follow on due process for such multi-party transactions:

Given the commitments from lenders in October 2025, the equity package was assembled in December as announced and thus any remaining detailed documents are now being finished

Lenders’ drawdowns commence mid-2026. But their detailed documentation is already circulating for wet signature exchanges. This sequencing of signings is typical for such transactions involving multi-lateral development institutions and many Government agencies. We are guided by our Project Finance advisers, Endeavour Financial who, along with legal counsel Herbert Smith Freehills, have closed scores of these multi-jurisdictional transactions over decades. Everyone is working diligently and collaboratively.

The drawdown from the Project equity investors has started for some and for the rest is expected to start February 2026. Drawdowns are in accordance with a schedule to match spending with funding, especially spending vs funding in local currency, coordinated to minimize currency conversion risk for TKGM."

MY COMMENTS

"The Lenders of US$240 million are committed, as are equity investors for more than the required US$100 million." There are binding agreements in place, which makes the final steps being fretted over merely procedural.

The wet signatures are stated against the $240m debt package and so relate to the lenders of that debt.

There is no mention of any wet signatures for the remaining equity. That said, and as I have posted previously, the 6th Jan 2206 RNS states this.

"Having arranged that the equity capital package includes non-ownership dilutive Gold Streams and the KEFI EthioPrefs, the required Lenders' approval of the associated detailed documentation is taking place and is expected to be completed shortly."

This explanation lends itself to the Gold Streams and the KEFI EthioPrefs sign-off to come first. Highly likely ahead of the February drawdown. Hence the word "shortly."

Then the $240m debt package will follow sometime in the next few months, but again timed to "match spending with funding." This is because "drawdowns are in accordance with a schedule to match spending with funding." Confidence really should be very high for the equity sign-off because binding agreements are already in place, and this debt is "fully subordinated equity risk capital", so it does not affect the senior lender's risk.

Morning all.

If you revisit the 12th Jan tweet and watch the video, then you will see what the compressor kit looks like sitting outside the shed.

Then review today's video from c. 9 seconds in, and you will see that it has been mechanically installed. So it's not sitting around waiting for engineers etc.

Almost there.

Far too much impatience is being demonstrated, and it'll likely lead some to make errors.

I've been doing this for a long time, and one thing I have learnt is that the word shortly is all about context. The same goes for near-term and imminent.

All that truly matters is that the finance is agreed and its final execution is being implemented in line with the project programme. That is what will win the day for investors and not whether shortly means tomorrow or 4 weeks from now.

Management really couldn't have been more helpful with their interviews and Q&A responses. Many firms simply remain silent until the deed is done.

Apologies, my hand slipped. That should have read...

The key point that some seem to be missing here is that there is "schedule to match spending with funding" and the process is being managed by "Endeavour Financial who, along with legal counsel Herbert Smith Freehills, have closed scores of these multi-jurisdictional transactions over decades."

Meaning that whatever detailed documentation, signatures or anything else that is required will have been allocated sufficient time with float to match what is required for the project programme.

This is a major gold project in terms of value, but just as important, it is the first project in Ethiopia to achieve international project financing. So its a very big deal, and those running firms running it will have made sure that it has sufficient time to be executed properly.

Attempting to turn this into some sort of Harry always fails angle (whatever the history was before) completely disrespects the stage the project is at and ignores the fact that said Harry is not the one driving the finance package from here on in.

The key point that some seem to be missing here is that there is "schedule to match spending with funding" and the process is being managed by "Endeavour Financial who, along with legal counsel Herbert Smith Freehills, have closed scores of these multi-jurisdictional transactions over decades."

Meaning that whatever detailed documentation, signatures or anything else that is required will have been allocated sufficient time with float to match what is required for the project programme.

This is a major gold project in terms of value, but just as important it is the first project in Ethiopia to achieve international project financing. So its a very big deal, and those running firms running it will have made sure that it has sufficient time to be executed properly.

Atempting to turn

This is taken from the latest Q&A responses on the Kefi website.

"The drawdown from the Project equity investors has started for some and for the rest is expected to start February 2026. Drawdowns are in accordance with a schedule to match spending with funding, especially spending vs funding in local currency, coordinated to minimize currency conversion risk for TKGM."

The VOX interview offered an excellent explanation of the initial programmes being implemented. These are resettlement/new housing construction and the principal engineer's detailed engineering specification, which we were told will lead to "triggering his procurement next month."

Drawdowns in accordance with a planned and agreed schedule are perfectly normal for such projects.

The insight that Chancery are due to visit the site next month ties nicely in with this commentary.

This means that the official word on the sign-off of the remaining equity agreements can come at any time during the next few weeks.

I'm not 100% sure they will need a DFS. It will depend on how much detail the financiers (assumed to be the AFC again) require and in what format. The guidance I believe, is financed by the end of Q2. They have clearly discussed their plans with them already, or they wouldn't be so confident about the equity/debt split. But they have 5 months to complete it, along with permitting. However, at the end of the day, this is mainly about the long lead items, which at such high values effectively hedge any debt required, whether more info is needed or not. I am sure we will learn much more on 27th Jan.

I think the debt option is a great hedge against any potential sustained pullback in gold prices.

I don't underestimate the value that dual jurisdictions will bring to THX. The exact timing of its effect is not clear, but as construction develops and Douta de-risks, it should start to show itself. Holding one asset in Nigeria will remain a drag on the valuation. Douta eases that.

2-3 years from now, I think we will at some point be living in a +$5,000/oz gold price environment, perhaps even much higher. Having two operating mines in two countries in that environment should be very positive.

It is appropriate to expect an uplift in Segilola's AISC once the underground element kicks in. So it will be really interesting to see what this initial mine life extension looks like cost-wise, and also what it costs to mine and transport from the satellite deposits. Be it only one trial deposit is being sanctioned this year, and it should sit outside the resource upgrade. My position right now is that AISC will rise slightly, but likely from 2027 onwards. Then once underground commences it will rise much more, be it that they may still blend the input ore to the processor to reduce overall AISC. But they are coming from a very low base.

Great to think these things through, but overall on its current course, THX is a great stock to hold for the next few years.

The detail within the PFS/DFS will, of course, be important along with the cash on hand position at YE25, which I expect to be above guidance ($115m).

If the CAPEX is closer to $300m, then perhaps the finance becomes more relevant. Not that it should be much of a hurdle to agree.

It is a PFS in name only. If it indeed allows main equipment to be ordered late Q1/early Q2, then it is effectively a DFS.

I am still trying to establish how much of the NPV should be applicable once the main kit is on order, because it would mean it is essentially under construction. However, THX are looking to finance $100m of the CAPEX in debt, so some may feel the need to discount the NPV more heavily until that closes. But we are talking about a gold miner here that, given another 9-12 months, would likely hold the entire CAPEX for Douta in cash. So, how big a risk is that finance milestone in reality? None of this is negative, by the way. Quite the contrary.

It is also worth noting that THX completed its finance package with the AFC in April 2020. The project financials were calculated against a 6-year mine life with an open-pit cut-off of $1,300/oz, and in the weeks running up to financial close, gold prices were trading at around $1,600/oz, and I am being generous.

Kefi has a 7-year mine life, and the financials have been calculated against $2,000/oz gold (see latest RNS). Most importantly, they have pushed the green light button on a breakeven cost, including debt of $1,567/oz. So the funders were prepared to go ahead at such a tight margin. Much like the AFC did with THX. However, the key difference is that Kefi have a major bull market in gold at its back and current gold prices aren't $300/oz higher but $2,500/oz.

The gold stream and the preference shares do push the breakeven cost up by some $400/oz, but that still leaves a heck of a lot of wriggle room, and that's before we talk about the fear of missing out element in all of this.

I have said on X that I thought the gold stream was too generous, given what THX achieved in 2020 in a much poorer market but that only affects my total return. It does not affect the possibility of any return, which is key. On the flip side, that generosity gives me much more confidence that the gold stream and, to a certain extent, the preference shareholders will be falling over themselves to get their documents signed. That is because they are set to make a lot of money out of this, and if they do, then so do I.

I agree Openpit.

Having been in THX from the early days, I was attracted to Kefi because the AFC are willing to fund their project and they were instrumental in getting Segilola over the line. At the time, that too was a first-mover one-asset junior gold miner in a frontier market. The AFC has been paid handsomely for their trouble, but that hasn't stopped THX from delivering its investors 300-400% returns.

Getting such projects over the line isn't easy, which is why haggling over days and weeks is either skullduggery or a lack of experience. Kefi is very close to completing the last elements of a company-defining moment that, over time, can deliver the same returns as THX did. But a little more patience and trust is required.

Morning all.

I am still somewhat perplexed by the reaction to the latest RNS. Perhaps this is helped by the fact that I only recently became a shareholder. I also fully appreciate that some voices (as always) are keen to muddy the waters as best they can, which can create a false narrative. Be it, I respect the historical disappointments highlighted by many posters.

A key statement from the RNS.

"As announced on 22 December 2025, the Company's key asset, Tulu Kapi, has now been fully launched. In the past month, the following critical milestones have been achieved."

So first and foremost, this RNS was designed to give a more thorough update on what work had been completed since early December. It was not purely about progress since 22nd Dec.

It amazes me that, having been updated on progress so close to Christmas (22nd Dec) and being told such things like the "issuance of these shares is subject to certain conditions and the execution of definitive legal documentation", so many investors expected the equity to be closed during the holiday period. Especially when we consider that the fundraise enables early works to be signed off, taking the pressure off this final equity package closure. This is, after all, a two-year mine build.

This is why I highlighted the other day the most important part. That being this.

"Having arranged that the equity capital package includes non-ownership dilutive Gold Streams and the KEFI EthioPrefs, the required Lenders' approval of the associated detailed documentation is taking place and is expected to be completed shortly."

The comparison I provided with the 22nd Dec update demonstrates that, despite the Christmas period, these agreements have completed their detailed documentation because they have moved to the lender's sign-off stage. To expect them to be achieved whilst bankers are enjoying the festive period disrespects the complexity, but also ignores the level of necessity involved. As an example, I live in Germany, and we have a bank holiday on 6th January. That means most professionals take the whole period off until 7th January to go skiing.

At this late stage, this isn't about deadlines. It is about the time required to successfully conclude a funding package whose largest ingredients have already been negotiated.

I will add one more thing before I disappear into the background once more. It is important to appreciate that $50 of the $100m required to close the equity portion of this funding package has already completed and can be spent. Hence why I made the earlier comment about this not being about deadlines anymore. This is now purely about the gold stream and redeemable preference shares.

The gold stream is an amazing deal for the lender. The preference shares deal is almost as good too, and we are at the final sign-off for both lenders and we have just had a long Christmas break. It does not need to be any more complicated than that.

Morning KEFIGOLD.

Is this a quote from somewhere?

I believe what has been missed is the fact that with reference to the preference shares, "detailed negotiations in progress with a view to finalising detailed documentation" and therefore the legitimacy of the $26m of applied-for shares has been completed. Otherwise, it wouldn't have advanced to the senior lender for approval. That is the progress that I see since 22nd December, and if indeed true, that is a significant step given how unique these Ethiopian preference shares are.

The message is that approval is expected shortly.