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@Carefreecarry, I think the critical point is that Chancery stated as of 19th Jan they had the $20m ready to go when Kefi wants it, and their recent fundraise has nothing to do with this deal being completed. Chancery's wording indicates that their $20m contribution is now about when Kefi call it off, which ties into the whole payment schedule messaging = de-risked.

The answer given to a Q&A question that I tabled to Chancery Royalty (Q&A session dated 19th Jan) contradicts the idea that any funds had been paid yet or that the recent raise by Chancery was needed to complete it.

"We've done a commitment for $20m. Would love to take $30m, but I said to Harry, let's see where we are in two to three months. So $20m is committed, and we are fully funded. We've actually got that money now."

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/2013264981874077774?s=20

It's here, Alanos.

The interview was dated 22nd Jan.

"We are going to fund him in two weeks."

This is not a guarantee, nor does it set an exact date, but it strongly indicates that a programme of execution is being followed. Hence why Kefi stated in their Q&As that,

"Drawdowns are in accordance with a schedule to match spending with funding, especially spending vs funding in local currency, coordinated to minimize currency conversion risk for TKGM."

"The drawdown from the Project equity investors has started for some, and for the rest is expected to start February 2026."

This is the month. Meanwhile, construction continues with preparatory works ahead of earthworks commencement late March/early April.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/2014314475160006725?s=20

@ronvee, this gold mine is a very big deal for Ethiopia. The first internationally debt-financed mining project in Ethiopia is a massive PR win for the government there. So it makes sense that its finance closure would have some sort of ceremonial or presidential engagement.

Chancery stated in the interview that they were travelling to Ethiopia to visit the mine in the "second week of February." (c. 6 mins 30s into this Q&A).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zf3zUquV8zM&t=2225s

Plus Kefi stated this in an interview post-Chancery's.

"There will be plenty of photos next month."

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/2014342701437620578?s=20

Chancery didn't say they were travelling with Kefi, but as the main gold stream financier + the president visit angle, I would be very surprised if Kefi aren't with them. I also doubt that Kefi management would be making multiple visits in the month. One still has to piece things together with some logic and common sense, but next week looks important.

Nothing is ever guaranteed, but I see no reason not to believe Chancery Royalty's new director on the dates. As I have said elsewhere, visits for CEOs and advisors can be easily rearranged, but a president's time cannot, nor should it be. That element alone has me believing that this is all being actioned against a schedule that has plenty of float and belief to ensure it runs without any overall delay.

That is backed up by the wording in the Q&A response and the Executive Chairman's tone and answers in the various interviews. The normal expectation is for the market to be told in the run-up to this visit.

SP looks like it wants to move up a leg.

We have the first signs of gold prices settling down. Fears of a major crash are subsiding. It is important to remain vigilant, and perhaps more evidence is still required, but it is a good start.

A steady market allows attention to return to progress and pending milestones. We are now in February, and Kefi have been clear that they expect to draw down the remaining equity this month. Chancery Royalty stated that they expect to fund Kefi in 2 weeks. That's roughly 5th Feb. They also said they will be attending the site in 3 weeks and meeting the president, which would be next week. Even for a neutral mind that fits rather well.

The market isn't stupid, so it will be interesting to see how Kefi trades today.

I agree Mach_20.

The gold price remains very healthy for Kefi, and we have an important and possibly defining couple of weeks ahead.

Precious metal prices don't need to bounce hard; they just need to settle down so fear can subside. That then allows the reality of how positive current prices remain to be acknowledged once more. The speed of this flash crash and reset could actually work really well because it has achieved many months of work in just a few days.

I wrote the attached post on X earlier today.

In reality, Kefi has barely moved in valuation since November despite several positive steps forward on their financing for Tulu Kapi and a surge in the gold price. That doesn't prevent the market from reacting strongly to any immediate news. Throw in some panic and one or two nefarious comments designed to confuse and worry, and a short-term push lower can be achieved. But it is critical to stay centred and concentrate on the fundamentals because they will decide things in the end.

February trading commences on Monday. Much is promised for the coming months. Gold still trades beyond Kefi's highest NPV guidance. Gold will settle down at some point, and this phase of worry and fear should strengthen the shareholder base for many gold miners, setting them up for their next leg. It may be hard for some to appreciate when gold is dropping $300 in a day, but many miners haven't even priced in $4,000 gold yet, nevermind $5,000 or better.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/2017139045487284651?s=20

Huddled believes that through its relationships, it has some of the cheapest offerings on the market. But before THG, it could not deliver fast enough and compete with the likes of Amazon. Now it can, and with it, still make 25% margins.

The deal sites remove the need for expensive marketing but give access to millions of bargain-hunting customers. This allows bulk flash sales on single items. If you are the cheapet you can sell bulk super fast.

The market needs to see the proof of this, but early feedback is that even on a soft start basis, they have had success. Such flash sales open up access to new customer acquisitions at minimal cost, allowing follow-on low-cost marketing for repeat sales.

Next up is scale and perhaps some funding to drive it, but the potential is there, and right now, because of the activity in the commodities space, nearly no one is paying attention. But I expect that to change as Huddled demonstrates the concept.

More deals at both Nutricircle and Discount Dragons are appearing on Latestdeals.co.uk.

The market hasn't got its head around what this additional sales source opens up.

PS I think the overhang is running on vapour now, if not removed already.

If everything were priced in when it actually came to full fruition, then the COVID-19 boom in stocks would never have happened. Back then, stocks put on 200% in a matter of days just because they had the word "COVID" in an RNS. We haven't reached anywhere near that level of hype yet in gold stocks, and the likes of Kefi are built on much firmer foundations.

At $5,300/oz, I have Kefi 83% share of Tulu Kapi running at c. $1.8BN. I fully appreciate that they won't produce gold until late 2027 and the gold price will not remain stable. But don't forget that the gold is still in the ground, the finance package is still agreed, and M&A appetite is growing along with the desire to take more risk. $5,300/oz gold will do that, but as I say, I see little that says we have reached full hype phase yet. If/when Kefi is trading at a premium to its construction start NPV, I would say we are at or close to full bubble, but it's currently at just 12% of that above figure.

Removing the overhang is the first important development. Then let's see where the market takes us.

I felt on Friday that the overhang was beginning to dissipate. Today's price action and volume compound that argument. There may still be some stragglers, but the share price looks close to being freed up. At that point, investors can better judge what is priced in or not.

My view is we are in a raging gold bull market that is well supported by numerous macro events, and in such environments, fully financed gold projects normally don't trade at 12.5% of their current NPV. I don't think true FOMO has truly kicked in yet for many gold stocks, as crazy as that may sound.

Vigilance remains critical, though, because volatility is very high.

Thanks, Kefigold, the Bros part was throwing off my search.

Keep a close eye here now, the overhang could be close to clearing.

We are certainly at an interesting juncture, and market nerves look to have kicked in with little justification.

My base case is that the first helium production should be confirmed very soon. In addition, Inez #1 has a significant chance of confirming stronger production flow rates, and this may then lead to acid injection being rolled out across the other wells, improving their flow rates too. The risk-reward on that action could be very good.

Achieve that and report a process for reaching target flow rates on the first 4 wells, and I feel (even in a slightly softer helium pricing environment) that the current MC is more than covered. Infact such an outcome really should see us break out to new highs.

That makes the hydrogen play a free hit, and if they land a positive result, then it could be a high impact on the SP. I get the feeling at the moment that many see this drill as a bigger risk than it is. I am also open to the idea that HEX may raise some funds on the back of any positive results. I have no fear on this front because their needs are likely a fraction of the current MC. This is compounded by the fact that any funding will likely be immediately directed towards drilling for expansion. This does not guarantee that it happens. I am merely highlighting it as a worst-case, and it really wouldn't be a negative.

So, with a sensible head on this drill and the pending updates have far more to look forward to than be fearful of, and first production, plus possibly some new funding, opens up a really big opportunity moving forward. As a caveat, I accept there can always be left-field issues, but if we spend all day worrying about such thing,s we will end up on medication. Facts and percentages are always central to my thought process.

I think we can safely say that Chnacery are still holding its c. 61m share stake in the recent raise. I am sure they aren't alone.

As of the close of play yesterday, I calculated 2.3Bn shares traded since 22nd December, and I remain convinced that the overhang clearance is the first step to value recognition here.

Some commentators are determined to play the no production for 2 years card. Well, go tell that to OMI shareholders, where the MC for a company that doesn't even have an MRE yet, never mind a DFS or a full finance package, now sits higher than Kefi. This is a gold bull market whose drivers have not run their course yet. Such setups float all boats eventually, and the trigger can be anything at any time.

When I first invested in THX back in late 2022, gold was trading at c. $1,750/oz, and many voices were questioning why I would risk my capital in a country that doesn't even have a mining industry. I was definitely early, but it was certainly worth it in the end. Nigeria doesn't even appear on the Fraser Institute's Annual Survey because no executives were trying to do business there, which is why it is important to point out that last means 82nd, not last in the world.

I see many similarities between THX and Kefi. Heck, they even have the same debt financier backing them. Just like with THX, this is frontier investing that is helping a willing government carve out a new industry. That does not mean there aren't risks, but all risks are measurable and can be valued. Get it right, and the rewards can be enormous.

But the one key difference here is that THX achieved it in a normal gold market where margins were fairly tight, whereas Kefi has a voracious bull market at its back, and that changes everything, including risk appetite. THX has achieved the success it has because the management team were good enough. Despite all the time delays, I see similar traits with Kefi. Getting the first international debt financing for a mining project over the line in what is a frontier market is not an easy task, and its achievement and what it means for future possible success for Kefi should not be taken lightly. Be it that we investors must remain vigilant and avoid complacency in what is a very volatile world these days. But I repeat, this is a gold bull market. Gold is trading at nearly double the values employed by the debt financiers. That is not normal, and in such an environment, very unusual outcomes can happen.

Thanks for posting, Kefigold.

Strong indication again that February is when all of this really kicks off.

"There will be plenty of photos next month."

"Bulk earthworks will be in a couple of months." This ties in with what I was saying earlier. I would expect an operational update around the time of this funding close-out, signalling long lead items and a start date for bulkworks. That's when construction start will really begin to be appreciated. I look forward to it.

An update on Saudi may well come in the meantime, given what he disclosed in the interview.