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It is well worth reading this thread on what the Qatar outage means for helium supply and especially China.

"A 72-hour helium outage cost Samsung $300M in 2024."

As the newest proven producer of US helium Helix is in a very strong position.

As I said, 'enjoy' watching the market's slow realisation.

https://x.com/matthew_pines/status/2028482880922583264?s=20

@lordloadsoflolly I am merely covering all bases.

At some point, a new plant will be required. Perhaps for Ingomar. Perhaps for the Southern Dome.

A Hydrogen JV may come about. That may require equity from Helix or allowing equity stakes in the company.

But they may also secure debt lines. We don't yet know, but writing off new equity completely isn't wise without knowing where the journey ends, and it is nothing to be afraid of because with this small raise, there is plenty in the tank for the next leg up in valuation. A point I tried to get across last night.

Helix is in a very good place today, try to enjoy it.

If that is true CrudeTrader, then that backs up my view that the strike price was very attractive.

That should be it now for raises associated with working capital. The next funding, if it comes, will be for growth, and even that isn't guaranteed if they can now self-fund more wells and infrastructure. The market knows this, and the ongoing Qatar news is literally the fuel backing it all up.

Great post, and I agree.

The milestone payment essentially goes to AOP for what was a necessary monetisation deal at the time. But STX is on much firmer ground now finacially so it doesn't really matter. The most important thing is that the Chinese approval is complete, allowing AOP debt to be paid. Then, as you say, it is about what this market means for STX at upto 10% royalties. My feeling is that they won't drag their heals like Norgine has in Europe.

When all is said and done keepingit to 8.8m shares is the perfect result.

I also expect it to wash through very quickly.

Morning lordloadsoflolly.

My post wasn't a direct dig at you, and everyone is entitled to their opinion.

These things are always about context. It is easy to lose sight of the bigger picture when more immediate actions lie directly before our eyes.

I count 11.15m shares traded over the last two trading days alone. That's a very healthy start compared to the (so far) 8.8m shares we can expect to see added. However, I do think more will be issued because the strike price is attractive enough. On the plus side, this lower level lends itself to any overhang clearing quickly. But there is plenty of news to drive it through, and the most current (Qatar's gas shut-in) plus the knowledge of a quicker return to Inez #1 may be enough already.

Let's see what the final number is first.

Investors now get a lot for this small raise cost which again makes the whole debate pointless.

The first off takes will compound that position.

The removal of the potential funding question matters. Focus can now be totally focused on progress and news flow.

The overall current position when placed in the context of the geopolitical tensions and funding size is ver positive. That says to me that the share price won’t drop back very far and will likely push past recent highs sooner than some think.

Lordloadsoflolly.

We are talking about a £2.2m raise for a company that the funding values at £46m. It’s so insignificant it’s barely worth debating.

I posted here previously the possibility of a going concern issue for the auditors. It could be for other reasons. But in reality I don’t truly care because I have no reason to distrust Bo Sears judgement because each raise keeps coming markedly higher than the last and my investment is delivering excellent long term gains.

Nothing is perfect in investing. Raising funds on AIM is never entirely clean. Institutions and connected investors normally receive an advantage. CEOs have to be clever and sometimes play the short term game for the longer term good. I’ve learned to live with it and work around it so long as management is good enough.

All that matters is genuine progress on the ground and progress with the valuation. Both so far are being delivered despite bumps in the road. Bumps in the road are inevitable and are more about how they are managed as opposed to their mere existence.

This raise was deemed to be required and I am happy to support that choice because for some time it felt like they could require a little funding boost. But more importantly because the CEO has earned it, he more often than not puts it to very good use. Think PSA and Rudyard.

The raise is minuscule, and it’s being put towards increasing production and testing a potentially game changing hydrogen play. So it’s more than worth it.

Those criticizing are embarrassing themselves. This BOD has delivered the cheapest fastest helium plant program you will likely ever witness. It’s delivered Rudyard which countered the delay at Ingomar which would have been far more costly and dilutive to put right. Such moves demonstrate the sort of management investors are getting for their money. Management aren’t flawless. Mistakes are always made. But it’s how they deal with them and at what cost. So far Bo Seas has got far more right than wrong and his efforts have now put Helix in a very strong position vs this geopolitical backdrop.

By C I mean X. Apologies for any confusion.

PLSR pointing out what a number of us were highlighting this morning except they won’t have any production until next year.

Meanwhile Helix production is online and will now be even more sort after than before and now that funding cleared up they can begin adding more to it.

I will say one other thing too. There were a good number of very quiet accounts on C these last few weeks. That tells me they knew this funding was dropping. Watch them light up like a positive beacon now it is completed.

Of all the listed helium plays on AIM none of them are as well placed as Helix to ride whatever geopolitical wave is now in play.

https://x.com/pulsarhelium/status/2028516593244778718?s=46&t=6uXiPPBc0pslakpmlxiTnQ

It’s good news and anyone trying to call it anything else is either trying to cause trouble or simply doesn’t have enough understanding. By raising such a small amount and committing to Inez #1 Helix is demonstrating their expectations around near term revenues.

This raise is clearly the reason why we didn’t push well into the 30s today. So the clearing of any overhang is likely already well underway.

Bo stated Inez #1 on production within a month so we can now expect reentry news very soon. Once the news flow starts coming through this truly modest funding will be long forgotten.

I’ve said a few times that I thought Helix would take some minor funding on board. I nearly convinced myself they wouldn’t but it’s the right play.

It’s a minor sum in the scheme of things even if it gets upgraded and I applaud the team for showing restraint because I’m sure they’ve been offered plenty.

What this funding now does is allow off takes to be closed properly and more importantly Inez #1 to be immediately revisited where the value add could be very significant indeed.

Yes, two drones hit the Ras Laffan oil and gas facilities today, which is where the Helium 1 and Helium 2 plants are located. More importantly, the LNG production is key because helium production is a byproduct of that.

Take a look at the enclosed map, which shows the position of the Ras Laffen fields in relation to Iran. They couldn't be more exposed.

The question is how much will Iran has to really damage such production, which would directly affect nations more sympathetic to their cause.

But that aside, such events are going to push up the price of spot helium anyway, which is heaven for Helix.

https://www.oilandgasmiddleeast.com/news/inside-qatars-6-billion-ras-laffan-petrochemicals-project

New all time highest price just paid.

Here he is talking about the potential disruption on LinkedIn. Says he will post updates as more info becomes available, so worth keeping an eye on.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/phil-kornbluth-366039a_not-too-surprisingly-the-us-israel-launched-activity-7433510674837696512-fGVg?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAANeKhABMJvcj2jDvbHWWcJd1ZUr64eoKVE

Here's an article with quotes from Phil Kornbluth, of Kornbluth Helium Consulting. Not someone I have come across before.

My gut feeling is that this disruption will be short-lived, but it will take a while for trust to return. That opens up the door for premiums on US-based helium spot prices, which is very good timing for Helix.

https://www.gasworld.com/story/iran-and-gulf-attacks-spark-lng-helium-and-insurance-concerns/2173749.article/

As I pointed out in my X post, European LNG prices are up 25%, and they have far better storage options than helium does.

It may be a storm in a teacup, but until the risk is removed, prices will likely catch a significant bid.

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/2028369643895767207?s=20

https://x.com/BigBiteNow/status/2028370068447309892?s=20

The assets will do the most talking in the end.

Helix has got a news-packed period coming up, and that will soon attract the attention it deserves.

At these levels, the hydrogen drill/test + any partnership/US government interest is a completely free carry, but one that in this commodity-frenzied market could send the SP soaring. It#s a very attractive play that won't be ignored forever.

I will be keeping a close eye on the closing SP today, but whether it's today or the next week or two, it doesn't truly matter because this is heading to new ATHs. It's simply got too much going for it now not to. That $500/Mcf pricing point was the final piece for me.

With Bo all but confirming the $500/Mcf pricing, I now agree, Spatzi.

Also, by confirming that Inez #1 will be online within a month, he all but confirmed that they will be returning to the well site within the next couple of weeks, which means the initial offtakes would need to be agreed before that, otherwise the guidance from the last RNS is invalid.

From the 23rd Feb RNS.

"Currently the Company is fully focused on production and entering into offtake agreements and will re-visit the testing activities once it has entered into offtake agreements."

If they are beginning short-term sales that quickly, then cash flows receive an immediate boost, which in turn reduces the likelihood of more funding. So if it does come, then it's much more likely growth-related, which is much more palatable to the market. But this combined insight, timings and pricing now has me leaning more toward no immediate funding at all.

Lastly, if they are returning to Inez #1 that soon, then upon successful re-entry, the hydrogen testing will kick off much quicker.

Key quotes on that opportunity + helium-3

"Our helium 3-4 ratio is 0.74. Compare that to PLSR at 0.09. So we are nearly eight and a half times higher than that."

PLSR jumped nearly 100% in value upon the announcement that the US Federal government had confirmed their helium-3 discovery.

"So we are 37 times the continental crust average. And that's a really exciting endeavour, both from a helium-3 vantage point, but also the hydrogen vantage point."

I could go on and on.

This is like a "I know something you don't" type scenario for existing investors.

If enough people were paying attention, then Helix would be flying today.