Whilst I am very much against bids rumors etc being posted without concrete evidence, I am not so sure I buy the sudden change of heart from iis buying up stock and driving up the SP. Somebody suddenly wants stock and they don't appear all too bothered by the affect it is having on the SP.
According to the company website FIL held 6.63% of the company (equal to 80.62m shares) as of 29th March 2019.
The 22nd July declaration stated they now hold circa 58.6m shares.
That means they have sold around 22m over the last 4 months or so.
@JTD No worries. The more investors can pool their knowledge and observations given what we are no doubt up against in terms of said ambiguity and a general lack of transparency, the better.
You said "for me the most interesting information is the price 18p. If FIL bought them for M&P then the 17p bid is history, they will have to pay 18p upwards in cash under takeover rules"
I say exactly right.
There is an interesting story unfolding already in the declarations from those shareholders holding more than 1%. Hermes Investment Management are thus far adding at these levels, be it in small quantities thus far and currently hold just over 1%.
More importantly Legal and General have sold down just under 4m since 19th July, which brings their entire remaining 4.35% into play at these levels until we see evidence to the contrary.
FIL have declared since then so the first 4m must have gone to another home.
@JTD Firstly, to be clear I am very much aware this is early days and have said as much in my last post. I am merely following events as they unfold and attempting to plot the trajectory be it as I say, early days still. Where i have perhaps jumped the gun a little is in assuming that FIL have effectively sold their shares to M&P at the offer price. That I cannot say for certain. Perhaps they have indeed agreed in principle to the final offer price.
However, that isn't what is key here. The most important point is that M&P one way or the other have 4.82% and FIL are buying shares above the offer price (18p) be it in small quantities.
I expect more purchases today nut it will be about the size once more, which will demonstrate the intent. Logic says if you start buying shares at 18p and more are available at that price or less, then you continue. But I stress again that we are talking very small quantities at this stage and it is much more about the policy and the fact that FIL ( an investor keen to leave the party) is suddenly buying shares in the market for M&P.
I take your very interesting points about the market competition and tend to agree but as always nobody really knows anything concrete at this stage other than what the RNSs have declared to date. Like you though I do expect strong competition from the existing partners because they are in the game and that fact alone is reason enough for it.
The RNS is as follows ;
@JTD It isn't about the number of shares at this time it is about the intent and the price they are willing to pay.
It is still very early days but the fact is that a party holding 4.82% of AMER stock has declared for M&P and is willing to pay more than the known offer (17p) in the market.
I suspect FIL have taken the offer price but as others have already said here, they have been selling down and potentially affecting the SP, thus their deal with M&P may be more than meets the regulatory eye.
Morning JTD. The FIL Form 8.3 update from yesterday altered their position under section 1F compared to that stated in the 22nd July update.
As of yesterday they declared on behalf of Etablissements Maurel et Prom (M&P).
In addition, they declared that they had purchased 102,168 shares on the open market.
I take that to mean that FIL have sold their share to M&P and are actively buying stock on the market on their behalf.
After yesterday's announcement I will be keeping an close eye out for the next FIL update. Are they acquiring shares at this level for M&P and if so are they being more aggressive than yesterday's 100k of buys. Total control currently sits at around 4.8%.
Somebody queried whether they could get to 30% by buying at 18p. My position on this is no, so long as more iis do not give in as easily as FIL, which I don't believe they will because they aren't as keen as FIL to leave.
Lets see shall we.
I agree. They were bound to have some success with iis and FIL look to be closer to them than perhaps first thought. If they'd bought several million shares on the open market yesterday it might raise an eyebrow but 102k doesn't show a great deal of intent just yet.
Let's see what tomorrow's FIL update brings.
From what I have read, and I do welcome other thoughts on this, FIL have been wanting to exit for some time and so were highly likely the strongest candidate for selling out to an offer that is considerably above the levels they were prepared to exit at. There is no connection at this time with any other larger holders as each has its own strategy. I would suspect that just like many of us here, those iis that have rode out recent times of frustration etc here have likely done so because they see greater value, which I take as a good sign.
The really interesting part is that FIL appear to now be purchasing on behalf of M&P.
Well I would be careful allowing oneself to be too overly dramatic at this early stage as they only managed to acquire 100k of shares on a day when over 26m were traded. So they aren't at this stage showing too much willingness to push purchased too hard on the open market. Plus their efforts will in itself push the price up because seller at this level must be fairly limited.
That said it is a significant development and the game is certainly afoot.
Yes correct me if I am wrong but if I interrupt the last RNS correctly FIL have sold their shares to M&P and are accumulating shares for M&P and have yesterday bought circa 100k more shares at 18p. Thus their offer may state 17p but they are already buying at 18p.
Well done Pdub. I cannot imagine the journey you have been on and how it difficult it must have been to stay positive throughout it, nor appreciate how it must now feel to have reached the end of it in such a positive manner.
Enjoy your celebrations with your loved ones.
@Fred_Bloggs With all due respect I believe your take on the current situation to be wrong at this time. The market is being naturally cautious until it has more information.
The very fact that M&P have had their initial low ball offer knocked back but are willing to take part in the competitive bid process, indicates strongly that an improved offer will come fro m them. The SP will then simply re-rate to that level.
In addition, the fact that a number of other interested parties are also willing to take part in the competitive process knowing that 17p isn't high enough, also points strongly towards an improved offer(s) coming from another party/parties. Again, the SP will rise to reflect this as and when that information is set free, which unfortunately will likely show itself in the SP before we mushroom like PIs are able to read about it.
17p is the base and that is all it is.
@Wait Yes indeed and you may well be correct. My post wasn't designed to weigh heavy on the belief that ONGC or indeed AMER are playing games with this result, more an opened ended question that welcomed further thoughts.
Whatever the case the test may well be taking longer but given it is just about the only drill that AMER has on the books right now (Plat 22 sidetrack aside), one would think that an update on its progress would have been merited by now. It certainly must be 'imminent.'