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Looking at where this tube trailer is likely manufactured (Texas) and expected transit times, it looks like we will be seeing the first loading next week.

I think a few people need to step back and consider the bigger picture here, and with it review what is driving their impatience.

The supply interruption in Qatar is no longer about days or even weeks. Therefore, Helix has a significant and ever-expanding time period in which to grow and demonstrate the value of its assets.

From my 11th March post.

"At some point in time, the market will decide ok now we are at the point of no return. The point at which sufficient negative effects are in play to support a belief that prices will be affected for longer."

After last night, and even without knowing the true extent of damage in Qatar, we have taken another giant leap towards the point of no return.

As an investor, I don't need any more information to know this supply interruption will now last many months, meaning that more and more Helix progress will be factored into it. So whether it takes a few more days to announce first sales or not, it doesn't really matter at this stage because the path is now set.

None of us should be wanting to see the next level of escalation.

If they damage the facility then that could confirm a longer period offline meaning the current reactionary pricing beds in and everything needs to be revalued accordingly.

Keep your eye on this.

IRAN TARGETS GULF ENERGY FACILITIES, SAYS TASMIN

Iran’s Tasnim news agency lists Gulf energy sites as “legitimate targets,” warning they could be struck soon.

Facilities named:

🔸Qatar: Ras Laffan refinery phases 1 & 2, Mesaieed Petrochemical

🔸Saudi Arabia: Samref refinery, Jubail petrochemical complex

🔸UAE: Al Hosn gas field"

If they damage Ras Laffan, then that will be truly significant for Helix and other US helium plays.

https://x.com/DeItaone/status/2034256804889141493?s=20

I asked AI to work it out for me and the indication was that there are still around 3m advisor warrants at a strike price of 10p.

@Jim800, go and tell that to the Pulsar valuation, which currently sits at £164m. They have no plans to produce any helium for at least 12 months. So any rise there is based on sentiment and future US-based advantage. Does the market care right now?

Pulsar is a great company and has much stronger grades, but that is all they have over Helix. Helix has the flow rates, which significantly reduce the gap in production between the two and allow for lower CAPEX drilling. They also now have the cash flows, which means they can add several more wells before Pulsar delivers even 1Mcf of production, and they can self-fund the business moving forward.

When everything is considered, I still could make a good argument that Pulsar is worth more than Helix, but not £100m more. If Helix also finds commercial levels of hydrogen in Inez #1, then any discount is immediately wiped out.

I really wish Pulsar well and hope their valuation flies, but if it does, then Helix shouldn't be so far behind.

The longer this disruption to helium pricing continues, the more Helix's advantage will become clear because it is bringing actual production into this pricing and can add more helium more quickly than any other UK-listed helium stock I know of.

@Troajan, your point about panic buying is a good one.

An increase in spot pricing is no surprise, but the market was supposed to be in a glut to the tune of 15%. Upto 30% has been removed, but we are only 12 days in and on the sea cargoes, likely haven't even hit port yet. A 100% jump so soon, if indeed the reality is a very big reaction.

For me its not the fact that spot pricing is up, but how much it is up in such a short period of time.

Yes, the rough guidance was that 30-45 days of interruptions would have a significant effect. That I assumed took into account Qatar cargoes that were already on the sea. Perhaps the experts didn't know that some of them are stuck in the Strait and that is influencing things.

Whatever it is, a 100% jump in 12 days says that the consequence is already here. This is not a gas that is being traded or speculated on like oil. So we shouldn't be talking about temporary spikes to take advantage of the market. Basic supply and demand should still be in play as suppliers compete for business as they always do. I take the shift in spot pricing to mean that suppliers have certainty that they have the upper hand, and that is meaningful.

The question I have is what happens in another 12 days? Do prices remain stable, or do we go higher again?

I just shared this thought on X.

Thinking more about this, it is quite a headline for the industry.

I've seen a lot of industry talk about helium end users being well supplied, that there is a supply glut, and interruptions to Qatar supply would take many weeks, if not months, to take effect.

Was this just talk?

A 100% jump in spot pricing tells me there are more than enough players out there for whom this simply can't be true.

"Helium spot prices have doubled since the Middle East crisis began, according to Phil Kornbluth, ​president of Kornbluth Helium Consulting, as buyers scramble to secure supply."

That is a pricing level the market should take more notice of. The continued indifference to stocks directly affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is remarkable. It will crack at some point.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/helium-prices-soar-qatar-lng-halt-exposes-fragile-supply-chain-2026-03-12/

@ID78 I think those are excellent questions for which most sensible people would say they have no clear answers yet.

I have listened to various CFOs and investment research leaders on Bloomberg TV quite a lot these last few days, and the same questions are being asked without any clear answers. The situation is extremely fluid. But what is becoming more and more clear is that Trump's off-ramp isn't as simple as he would like it to be.

However, my focus is less on the war itself and more on the disruption which has risk at its centre. I do think we have to consider the goals of the Iranian regime, with the biggest being its survival. But I have also read that they see this as an opportunity to press home an advantage through continued disruption to prove to Trump that he cannot afford to remove them. That creates the opportunity for a more prolonged period of rest bite from future attack. But even with that, we need more time to assess how it develops.

The attacks may well fall silent, but I think if the regime survives, then Trump will have created himself a long-term problem that no amount of bravado can remove, and Iran (with China and Russia's backing) may well look to remind him of on a regular basis.

Exhibit A.

"Operational and supply chain strategies" for MRI suppliers/owners.

"Given that MRIs account for roughly 15 to 30% of global helium consumption."

"Try to secure long-term contracts with suppliers who have diversified, non-Russian/non-Qatari supply chains."

https://www.gasworld.com/story/mri-owners-urged-to-check-on-magnet-and-helium-inventory/2174330.article/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=rss

I agree, Westgate.

Many things can now happen faster than we think, but I still think we are in a period of denial with this war. Perhaps with social media and AI these days, we are all far too well informed, or at least we think we are.

The Strait of Hormuz is shut, and the US administration looks like it is winging it on solutions. Yet a great many sensible/intelligent people continue to think this is merely a blip. That at some point, the US will declare victory, and that will be it.

Now that may well be the case for energy supplies because alternative solutions are being sought that reduce the pain threshold. With helium, it is far more difficult to assess and appreciate what alternative solutions there may be. This is also a contributing factor to my slow realisation theory.

At some point in time, the market will decide ok now we are at the point of no return. The point at which sufficient negative effects are in play to support a belief that prices will be affected for longer. Mixed in with all of that will be future business planning, which will be based on risk.

So when I read yesterday that Korean chipmakers were happy they have 6 months' supply of helium stockpiles, I think great, but I am under no doubt that they are busy planning for a future well beyond those 6 months, and it'll be one that is diversified away from Qatar. That will already be decided by what has happened in the last 2 weeks. It will take some time to implement, but that isn't what is important; it is the decision that matters the most. Hence, the expert on the recent Gasworld webinar was calling for helium producers to get their product certified for semiconductor usage. Something I expect the previously comfortable end users to now encourage, especially if it is US-based.

https://www.gasworld.com/story/korea-chipmakers-have-helium-stockpiles-for-six-months/2174283.article/

In the meantime, Helix can enjoy any uplift in spot prices, likely gain a negotiation advantage on long-term contracts and expand into what will be an even more US-based helium supply-hungry market going forward.

I posted this on 6th March.

"Long-term off-takes could take some time to complete. In the meantime, Helix has 3 producing wells to sell into the market at whatever price it runs at. Up until this conflict, Helix may have been the keener part of any longer-term discussion. I see that as already being changed for the very reasons laid out by Helix today.

Each day that passes without resolution on Qatar supply strengthens their hand. We don't need to make it any more complicated than that.

We are witnessing a slow-motion realisation here. The evidence is there to be read by anyone about what this already means, but that doesn't guarantee that the lightbulb moment immediately occurs."

Since then, Helix has announced its first tube trailer for direct export of helium to end users who don't have their own ISO trailers.

This is the same setup that North American Helium uses, a company that I have long thought would be the blueprint for Helix's growth (See the link below). But if nothing else, their growth path offers insight into how a pure helium producer (also nitrogen-based) builds out a business from scratch.

https://nahelium.com/marketing-and-logistics/marketing-and-logistics-overview/

What we are also now perhaps seeing is some of that slow-motion realisation kicking in. First and foremost, that comes in the form of short-term gains. The market has started to swing from positioning that the problem is solved to not so sure now. I don't expect that to change. The US administration looks equally as unsure in its strategy, which will only make the moves all the more erratic. Each day that passes without resolution strengthens Helix's hand both short-term and long-term.

But at the core of my slow realisation comment is the long-term picture. There is now a supply disruption and trust issue with the Gulf states' supply that isn't changing anytime soon. That creates an advantage for US producers like Helix, which will bed in and likely support elevated interest and prices for some time. That in turn should compound an advantage in long-term off-takes, which before this war were perhaps slightly weakened by a supply glut.

For a new producer like Helix, who needs sales and cash flow to expand and de-risk its assets across all future pricing environments, the setup is an absolute gift.

Still, the realisation will take time, and there will be bumps in the road as short-term changes to the situation in the Gulf drive things. But they will also be countered by tangible progress on the ground (first sales revenues, more drilling, other opportunities, etc.).

Parallel to this are the hydrogen and oil opportunities, which I see as a free hit now at valuations beyond today's. Investors in Helix talk about it, but no one is really hearing it right now. The light bulb remains off.

Whatever happens in the Gulf, Helix is in such a good place now. It's just a damn shame that it took war to deliver it.

Wishing you a speedy recovery, Kaeren.

Qatar has now increased the number of LNG tankers available for lease from 2 to 10.

https://x.com/bigbitenow/status/2029963937060360399?s=46&t=6uXiPPBc0pslakpmlxiTnQ

@Punter1234 All good, and I was only referring to initial spot price sales.

Long-term off-takes could take some time to complete. In the meantime, Helix has 3 producing wells to sell into the market at whatever price it runs at. Up until this conflict, Helix may have been the keener part of any longer-term discussion. I see that as already being changed for the very reasons laid out by Helix today.

Each day that passes without resolution on Qatar supply strengthens their hand. We don't need to make it any more complicated than that.

We are witnessing a slow-motion realisation here. The evidence is there to be read by anyone about what this already means, but that doesn't guarantee that the lightbulb moment immediately occurs.

@Punter1234 What that message seems to be saying is that a premium is already being baked in.

What Helix are demonstrating with today's RNS is that they are striking while the iron is hot. So yes, I tend to also agree that news will come quickly if it is available.