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Yes TB are robbing UK investors, perfectly timed.....but they have low balled so much, that there is a 69% chance that another player eg a Microsoft or other party, might also bid higher eg 750p....
I that case we could still get 820 p.....
Still waiting to hear full timelne....Dark is so far being sold for peanuts...and Investment bankers have few deals to work on anmd so in next month by say June 3rd new offer/offers could start being announced...
Of course still possible no other offer comes, but according to my crystal ball today, its 69% likely an offer around 750 p will come next....
For me, it's not a good thing it's an all cash offer. There's so much more value to be had with DARK.
A cash and share offer (50/50) from a US Cyber Company would be far better value without even considering an uplift in the offer price.
Yes cash not shares agree ! TB could still be Gazumped !
I am on my hands and knees now , praying a white knight comes in and offers more ( well figuratively speaking ) … then I don’t mind if TB get it for 800 p and above ! For no reason 620 we feel ripped off and Dark has good positive momentum
TB are paying in cash. How they get it matters not. They are cash buyers!
Sheltie TB are not a cash buyer exactly , they willl raise I see in news 1 to 2 billion , I forget which currency
The board like TB , and the board recommends accept
But behind the scenes Jeffries and other tmt investment bankers hungry for commission fees might just find another buyer ( in the end TB might need to up their offer )
Which is why the SP will drift down to the 560s/570 mark waiting until Q4 & voting etc
If anyones interested, current forecast for USD GBP exchange rate for the end of the year
Month / Low Forecast / High Forecast
October 1.289-1.329
November 1.309-1.354
December 1.334-1.388
Current is 1.25, so there's a pretty solid 5% wrong-side risk there. 8% is obviously taking the high side forecast for rate and the longer time frame.
I agree the offer should be made in GBP & TB take the USD conversion hit
A bit like your big money premier league transfer. Player (Poppy) might want to go to Liverpool (TB) but if Man City come in a bid more then Liverpool will either need to match the bid or lose out. It doesn't much matter what Poppy wants, the shareholders won't accept 620 if an offer lands on the table of 675, particularly if 620 looks like it might only be worth 580 in 6 months.
Why the hell are they allowed to make a bid for a British Co, with British HQ, listed in Britain, in f*****g USD anyway?
Sheltie you could be right, but there is nothing certain about the future except death and taxes (Benjamin Franklin).
This will 100% go through. TB are a CASH buyer . . . .
Talking of odds of the takeover succeding:
‘Schemes of arrangement provide a more certain path to success. Consistent with 2020, we saw schemes of arrangement deliver much higher success rates as compared to takeovers in 2021 (90% vs 55%).15 Mar 2022”
Given the holdings of the original investors, EBT, and employees set to get £440m (Sunday Times), maybe the odds are more likely to be 99% plus.
I can see this drifting towards 560s the longer it drags out so the sooner they get it done or new bidders declare interest the better for holders
Bravo are a good fit , but Jeffries might be able to find another buyer with deep pockets
Because now everyone knows Darl is up for sale
Bravo are good robber barons
Don’t forget staff and directors and other shareholders want more higher price , there is pressure to vote no , and pressure to get the price higher
The USD exchange rate is certainly a a head wind for us to get 620 even …. At this price we are all screwed out of what could have been
And I am 99% percent the deal will go through, Poppy et all become mega rich and the LSE becomes more of a laughing stock
Yes the USD pound exchange rate likely not move in our favor
Jeffries will do it’s best to increase the offer and start a bidding War , I am 69 % sure the price will jump towards 821.5 p
Forecast is 1.37 USD/GBP Nov 2024
$7.75 = £5.66 some 8.7% below offer in Apr 2024
$7.75
@ 1.25 = £6.20
Variance 1.2 to 1.4
@ 1.2 = £6.46
@ 1.3 = £5.96
@ 1.4 = £5.54
Also in 8-9 months the USD to GBP could easily fluctuate 1.2 to 1.4
$7.75 could easily £5.95 which is why I think it will hover around 600
Unlikely we will see 1.2 lows USD/GBP
A stronger £ isn’t good news for this deal over an 8-9 month period
I have to agree. They have prior connectivity having rebuffed them previously. i cannot see anyone making a move to step in so £6.20 seems right to me once contracts finalised.
I bought AA in 2020 when in trouble and talks of takeover started and came and went with withdrawn offer/failed offer
Bought 15 Sold 30
Bought in again 22 Sold 40
Bought in again 22 sold 36
Stopped there but it did go 36 down 32 back 36
Before final sale
Anything can happen here
They state it won’t get through court & vote until late Q3/Q4
4-9 months of fun here
I’ll sure be trading any drops on negative news or share price drifts as people sell (like I did) to get stagnant cash out - why leave it sitting idle for potentially 8 months?
Clank - no it will have no impact, as the offer has now been made. I very much doubt anyone else will step in either; like highly unlikely. So, £6.20 (give or take depending on the US v GBP exchange rate) is what you will receive when the contracts are finalised. ATB
Please excuse the naive question, but if a majority of shareholders decide to sell next week and take their profits, wont that cause the share price to tumble from it's current price regardless of any prospective bidding war?
Hi CR888,
No problem, Mirriad's problem is that its totally flown under the radar for so long, personally I'd never heard of the company until the 8th of April, but dig deeper with the help of a couple of oracles on where all its tentacles go & suddenly you see a £100M+ company staring you in the face & I'm not just saying that.
go here https://www.mirriadplc.com/investor-relations/reports-and-documents & download the 25th August 2023 presentation.
Page 7 & you'll soon get the idea, but it might not be for you.
As for trends, well Helium is the one that will definitely explode, trouble is no-one yet has found a viable source of it. Yes exploration is now occurring but all the targets have unanswered question including London listed HE1 & HEX so not worth going there yet, but Helium is a dead cert because of the absolutely dire need for it.
If I come across anything of note I'll let you know.
Good Luck
LOTM
Thanks for your idea
I am looking for medium risk although can do a few smaller puts on things like your idea
For example China is low now , so maybe buy some china funds and wait 3 to 5 years , almost sure bet for 30 per cent up
Or liontrust is low ? Brwm is low a commodity fund ?
Big trends that we ca buy into