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@Bohercom thankyou, my grasp on social media isn't the best. It doesn't show much but as per my previous comments I was worried (the now) 38-68 day completion was not feasible. The video would indicate they have commenced and are using the right equipment to improve the road which is as you say something. Looks like a 2000 gallon water tanker and motor grader and they weigh over 10-12 tons so at least heavy duty vehicles can traverse the route. The compactor if 17tons shows heavier vehicles capable of being supported (hopefully supporting the 25-40 ton trucks. From the images I've seen myself from last week before these works there were HGV type vehicles on the route from Malambwe up to the mine, so I have a bit more trust using objective eyes without RF lens fitted via social media posts. I am cautious but slightly more optimistic. Times ticking and I still won't go in until the JORC is out.
I apologise, I was reviewing the copper output as a metric to assess the share price (SP) of the companies investing in the active mines. You are correct they differ to CRTM drilling. It appears there is a lot of buying and some selling going on today. I must have missed something, unless it is just the belief that the share price is at a turning point. Luckily, we are only 40-70 days from road completion based on RF's comments to Vox. I'm looking forward to the sample update from South Africa and the 'transparent' JORC report.
I will update the road pictures. Does anyone have ideas on where I should post them, as I cannot do it here? People use Twitter and Instagram, but is there an easier option for me? I've locked myself out of my Facebook account, so that is not a viable option sadly. I was considering letting RF go first with his update in 40 days or his next interview. Maybe he will realise investors are not fools and will go beyond just trusting face value.
I was in discussion and looking into nearby mines in the Molulu area:
Ruashi - 38000-42000 tons per year
Etoile - 25000-35000 tons per year
Kinsevere - 70000-84000 tons per year
Have a google (-11.36381, 27.56893 Kinsevere) at the scale of these mines then look at Molulu. Quite a stark contrast in the infrastructure. So then I think about the 10000-15000 tons a month claim (120000-180000 tons per annum). This will mean in the next few months Molulu would become the area leader in Copper... or maybe someone who doesn't know the size of the structure he's sat on is just wishing? So my thoughts are whatever RF says we are not going to be hitting 10000 a month, and realistically albeit maybe years away could hit similar to some of these mines but only with drastic expansion which will be at a cost. So this isn't IMO about only the road its about the sales pitch that is coming with these interviews. I looked at the companies behind these mines and they are in the £0.30-£0.50 ranges after years of hard work. So lets not perhaps get ahead of ourselves as a year ago CRTM was in the £0.26 based purely on no product and speculation. So looking at what we have I am thinking buying now with a longterm perception of x5 is acceptable but any more than that is misplaced hope. I absolutely accept no mine is the same and RF could be sat on large deposits but I prefer to benchmark, assess before I move.
I must agree with @korriban, it is one thing to identify flaws in management based on a persons professional conduct but labelling them in such away to undermine their appearance is certainly uncouth.
I was reading and listening this morning to Vox Markets with RF and for me it gave the vision but feels like a grand vision but from a starting point perspective which has become repetitive. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qg5_MZhO5iw&ab_channel=VoxMarkets
8min 10secs "there is a structure we just don't know the length and the width of the structure"
7min 50secs "we will rent out equipment in order to help our mining contractor
6min 40secs "we could ramp up our production from 10'000 to 15'000 (tons) a month just by adding more equipment"
5min 05secs "in our open pit they were mining 2018, 2017 they were mining sulphide ore"
5min 30secs "sell our oxide ore into the market as we mine it"
3min 10secs "we do have inventory ready for off take and we will sell that once the road is rebuilt"
I lose a bit of confidence when RF starts discussing moving from 10'000 to 15'000 simply with more equipment when already stating the structure is unknown. I appreciate he understands the processes and needs to get the road completed first. The 60-90 period started 2 weeks ago when RF stated the road works commenced (so we are nearer 46-76 days I hope). The JORC report should also set out a clearer idea and the sample feedback from South Africa. My question to RF is what inventory tonnage is already present because in 2-3 months I would want/expect immediate production if to invest. I am reviewing my prior investments in copper and looking for a comparable case study to share. I will update soon I hope.
@anon.y.mouse valid points but reference point a) I didn't say 'on the 28km stretch there is as you say 8km that needs little rehab'. I quoted @bohercom who extracted the comment from CRTM historic statements that "the last 20km are on a dirt road" (off the N1). My point is CRTM said 20km previously and yesterday its now 28km (https://www.miningreview.com/base-metals/critical-metals-plans-fresh-start-at-molulu/). I am saying CRTM math doesn't add up (historic vs yesterday). I didn't say only 8km needs little rehab thats misleading. The rest of your point is valid on the basis sections of the 28km may not have deteriorated but that's based on speculation.
In reference point b) the big questIon is if and when but should CRTM plan to upgrade the whole 28km as per their statement yesterday this is a positive sign. CRTM wasted much favour with insider trades and lack of transparency and that isn't good management. I hope perhaps the work is done and this isn't an attempt to push along investors with FOMO in a 90 day period whilst more undisclosed events are occurring. Copper has value and on the rise but you need to extract and process or its just words. I will buy when I see the ground truth which isn't through CRTM lens.
@bohercom you hit the nail on the head. I read the same information "Although the route to Lubumbashi City is mainly on the N1 tarred road, the last 20km are on a dirt road. Although the Company plans to fund the upgrading of about 12km of this road". When I saw yesterdays information on "28km" I wondered if a) they read these threads b) someone left the calculator at home that day. Looks like the N1 tarred road is getting an 8km upgrade!
When I read the strong buy positions by @anon.y.mouse I am mindful that the connected company Phoenix Copper through directors is already listed in US and appear at face value a better option, or at least a good template for CRTM to follow. Shared information may give rise to CRTM improving.
@korriban I think 90 day completion of the road would indicate it mustn't be in severe decay if the intention is to make all weather and longterm road worthy for 40tn vehicles to move product. A lot of work goes into road building and is especially impacted by pre-existing, soil condition, terrain and topography etc. The estimated time is 4-7 days per kilometer in the area depending of degredation and provided the road materials, personnel, permissions etc are available. So at the low end I am thinking 110 days and higher 200 days for them to create such a stretch of road. CRTM to prove me wrong and maybe it is I who left the calculator at home today and someone can tell be the speed 1km of road can be rehabilitated especially in an area prone to rain even after the rainy season has passed (https://www.weathercrave.com/weather-forecast-democratic-republic-of-congo/city-610705/weather-forecast-kasenga-today). I will probably have to setup an imagery account to show the current state. Timely they came out 5 days after my post and said road works starting. Maybe they listen to me more than my wife or finally decided to use their money after the rise in negative commentary.
I have to agree. They have prior connectivity having rebuffed them previously. i cannot see anyone making a move to step in so £6.20 seems right to me once contracts finalised.
I have been watching CRTM a while and have numerous questions before I make any decisions but the main ones are around leadership, transparency, road worthiness and importantly the potential for profit. To this end I have sought out 2 people with help from my niece online to get the ground truth on the road that appears to be the route cause for investor concern. Ignoring Critical Metals claims I just want to know the feasibility on moving the metals as I cannot invest in something which as the baseline doesn't even have processing covered. I absolutely agree with Katstangler there has been a 'manipulated and deferred progress' report on the mine. So lets get the facts and make an informed decision. I don't seem to be able to update with images so will look elsewhere to post and leave a link here.