The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=122114332292303398&set=pcb.122114333282303398 This is what I was talking about previously in regards what is potentially sat there based on mapping but I am reminded of @katstrangler comment that 10k tonnes a month is wishful thinking, which still fells overly optimistic unless RF is banking on perhaps these bags being viable high grade ore as may convert to his 2-8 month supply of this 10k tonnes in the short term. Still needs a road to convert to financial gains and further work to maintain a supply.
You're absolutely right. I know I've missed out but I've never been sentiment driven only fact based reporting hence I posted the images on the road below. Sign of the times I guess, I am perhaps outdated but thorough in my checks where able.
Exactly. It's a constant trek with speculators and not knowing what can be trusted beyond your own findings makes it difficult especially in parts of the world with limited connectivity. I don't trust the guy and his mid June - Mid jul timeline was what I was hung up on. Its all about 'if' so I look after the pennies down the line by committing myself to make my own checks but doesn't change my opinion on what he's done to date. This is about the road not the production capability which I imagine will be another story.
@katstrangler its not a bombshell just an update. @bohercom nothings clear with this guy and I don't think its wrong to have distrust in RF based on his actions to date. The following I have put with the post of the images. I have been apprehensive about Critical Metals Plc claims on the road development and through social media a family member has been able to contact a local who stopped to take some images on the road. I note 19hrs ago CRTM showed imagery of a road section with a compactor but that exact stretch of road differs from where the images I have now were taken (based on surrounding foliage). So the plus side is they've clearly covered a signficant amount of ground and improved the road through widening and filling the ruts followed by compacting. On the imagery with the 'stop' sign you can see the arterial road to the right is in a moderate/poor state compared to the main route they've been working on. On the image with the ruts (tall tree hanging across road in the back ground) you can see what I mean in terms of the type of road surface they are improving. I don't like only seeing the good, I want to know the level of improvements needed before and see the results after otherwise how can I know they are responsible. On the video they posted on Twitter (https://x.com/CriticalMetals_/status/1793632003612635415) if you jump to second 29 and look at the rear of the compactor you can see the logo of MCSC. The vehicles in their images match ones I now have showing 'Mining Contracting services Congo'. The additional machinery was found on the road intermittently showing they are spread across a wide area. So doesn't appear to be one off leases for their videos (think the risk there is people stealing them). I am not saying I trust the guy but independent of their corporate posts I will say there is certain progress on a significant proportion of the road. I don't know why they don't just fly a drone over the route before and after. The main road which connects (N5) is similar to any tarmac road which can carry significant amounts of traffic so I am less concerned with that. I am content the information is factual but this isn't a complete picture of the road and short of monetary gain I had nothing to incentivise them to get more but may see if they have a Standard bank Congo account as goole tells me there is a local branch in Lubumbashi. I put on facebook as seemed easier - https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61559101950748. I can only change to weak buy as I am undecided on the man as opposed the project as it stands.
How can that be? A few months after road completion (Sep latest) we are into the rain season in the area which starts Sep to Oct. Perhaps they can work through the period others reduce activity but the active businesses are those close to the processing sites and off the N5/N1 main routes. I am mindful he said 60-90 days then they started 2 weeks prior to that timeline so we should be looking at mid jun - mid jul. Granted September is perhaps the latest, which I hadn't heard but as you say sentiment could carry this but prefer fact based reporting.
I have to agree with InvesterPA on that one. You cannot play such a deceptive game and then hope people will support the actions which are detrimental to public perception. If anyone is interested on Goolemaps put in -11.080038798476734, 27.665040650575285 which is the location of what appears to be the stockpiles Fryer claims to be able to sell (190m x 130m). The 'stock' is primarily base don surrounding mines low grade as you keep the high grade separate and in enclosures such as the bags visible (about 44). So as we know nothing has been mined per Fryer statements the mines dependent on 44 bags of 500-2000kg weight = 22tn - 88tn. A lot will come down to the concentrations in the mounds and bags which we still don't have. Its metrics like these I like to know. I will be posting the pictures in the next few days its not all doom and gloom.
@gordonbennett1 I think I can see a potential reasoning for apprehension and it starts when you look are NIU Invest SE.
60p/sh seems bold but time will tell. I was looking at Edwards-Jones other company CRTM which has at best a poor roadmap the last few years and only limping forward. I am just wondering if they share similar roadmaps and whether one can learn from the others experiences. Agree on the offer front, it's all about showing viability and unlocking the mines for the bigger fish to come in but time will tell.
Excuse my error, another sign then that the internal faith in the direction of CRTM isn't held by those likely in the know. Perhaps they heard the rumblings of dissent about the salaries. I saw PCX reporting earlier. Glad I fell the right side of the Edwards-Jones debate but time will tell
You worried me with that first comment as Eastman stepped down 1st April 2024. Thompson is still there. Eastman is still connected by Orana corporate so I suspected at the time it was a way to lower their outgoings on CRTM books (perhaps as the board take such sizeable salaries). Addition of a geologist today seems a step in the right direction but time will tell. JORC JORC JORC
PXC for me have a good grasp of the geological certainty, accessibility to mine, and as a company economic viability long term. I understand the trading volumes since 7th May announcement and expect it to rise. When I see the proven/probable reserves I take an interest. That said a degree of bias as I bought in a month ago. I keep hoping perhaps Chairman Edwards-Jones transfers his leadership model to CRTM (where he is non-exec director) who appear to need of his skills at present. I noted PXC updated their website with ever more qualified personnel which hopefully indicates improving fortunes in the future.
@Bohercom thankyou, my grasp on social media isn't the best. It doesn't show much but as per my previous comments I was worried (the now) 38-68 day completion was not feasible. The video would indicate they have commenced and are using the right equipment to improve the road which is as you say something. Looks like a 2000 gallon water tanker and motor grader and they weigh over 10-12 tons so at least heavy duty vehicles can traverse the route. The compactor if 17tons shows heavier vehicles capable of being supported (hopefully supporting the 25-40 ton trucks. From the images I've seen myself from last week before these works there were HGV type vehicles on the route from Malambwe up to the mine, so I have a bit more trust using objective eyes without RF lens fitted via social media posts. I am cautious but slightly more optimistic. Times ticking and I still won't go in until the JORC is out.
I apologise, I was reviewing the copper output as a metric to assess the share price (SP) of the companies investing in the active mines. You are correct they differ to CRTM drilling. It appears there is a lot of buying and some selling going on today. I must have missed something, unless it is just the belief that the share price is at a turning point. Luckily, we are only 40-70 days from road completion based on RF's comments to Vox. I'm looking forward to the sample update from South Africa and the 'transparent' JORC report.
I will update the road pictures. Does anyone have ideas on where I should post them, as I cannot do it here? People use Twitter and Instagram, but is there an easier option for me? I've locked myself out of my Facebook account, so that is not a viable option sadly. I was considering letting RF go first with his update in 40 days or his next interview. Maybe he will realise investors are not fools and will go beyond just trusting face value.
I was in discussion and looking into nearby mines in the Molulu area:
Ruashi - 38000-42000 tons per year
Etoile - 25000-35000 tons per year
Kinsevere - 70000-84000 tons per year
Have a google (-11.36381, 27.56893 Kinsevere) at the scale of these mines then look at Molulu. Quite a stark contrast in the infrastructure. So then I think about the 10000-15000 tons a month claim (120000-180000 tons per annum). This will mean in the next few months Molulu would become the area leader in Copper... or maybe someone who doesn't know the size of the structure he's sat on is just wishing? So my thoughts are whatever RF says we are not going to be hitting 10000 a month, and realistically albeit maybe years away could hit similar to some of these mines but only with drastic expansion which will be at a cost. So this isn't IMO about only the road its about the sales pitch that is coming with these interviews. I looked at the companies behind these mines and they are in the £0.30-£0.50 ranges after years of hard work. So lets not perhaps get ahead of ourselves as a year ago CRTM was in the £0.26 based purely on no product and speculation. So looking at what we have I am thinking buying now with a longterm perception of x5 is acceptable but any more than that is misplaced hope. I absolutely accept no mine is the same and RF could be sat on large deposits but I prefer to benchmark, assess before I move.
I must agree with @korriban, it is one thing to identify flaws in management based on a persons professional conduct but labelling them in such away to undermine their appearance is certainly uncouth.
I was reading and listening this morning to Vox Markets with RF and for me it gave the vision but feels like a grand vision but from a starting point perspective which has become repetitive. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qg5_MZhO5iw&ab_channel=VoxMarkets
8min 10secs "there is a structure we just don't know the length and the width of the structure"
7min 50secs "we will rent out equipment in order to help our mining contractor
6min 40secs "we could ramp up our production from 10'000 to 15'000 (tons) a month just by adding more equipment"
5min 05secs "in our open pit they were mining 2018, 2017 they were mining sulphide ore"
5min 30secs "sell our oxide ore into the market as we mine it"
3min 10secs "we do have inventory ready for off take and we will sell that once the road is rebuilt"
I lose a bit of confidence when RF starts discussing moving from 10'000 to 15'000 simply with more equipment when already stating the structure is unknown. I appreciate he understands the processes and needs to get the road completed first. The 60-90 period started 2 weeks ago when RF stated the road works commenced (so we are nearer 46-76 days I hope). The JORC report should also set out a clearer idea and the sample feedback from South Africa. My question to RF is what inventory tonnage is already present because in 2-3 months I would want/expect immediate production if to invest. I am reviewing my prior investments in copper and looking for a comparable case study to share. I will update soon I hope.
@anon.y.mouse valid points but reference point a) I didn't say 'on the 28km stretch there is as you say 8km that needs little rehab'. I quoted @bohercom who extracted the comment from CRTM historic statements that "the last 20km are on a dirt road" (off the N1). My point is CRTM said 20km previously and yesterday its now 28km (https://www.miningreview.com/base-metals/critical-metals-plans-fresh-start-at-molulu/). I am saying CRTM math doesn't add up (historic vs yesterday). I didn't say only 8km needs little rehab thats misleading. The rest of your point is valid on the basis sections of the 28km may not have deteriorated but that's based on speculation.
In reference point b) the big questIon is if and when but should CRTM plan to upgrade the whole 28km as per their statement yesterday this is a positive sign. CRTM wasted much favour with insider trades and lack of transparency and that isn't good management. I hope perhaps the work is done and this isn't an attempt to push along investors with FOMO in a 90 day period whilst more undisclosed events are occurring. Copper has value and on the rise but you need to extract and process or its just words. I will buy when I see the ground truth which isn't through CRTM lens.
@bohercom you hit the nail on the head. I read the same information "Although the route to Lubumbashi City is mainly on the N1 tarred road, the last 20km are on a dirt road. Although the Company plans to fund the upgrading of about 12km of this road". When I saw yesterdays information on "28km" I wondered if a) they read these threads b) someone left the calculator at home that day. Looks like the N1 tarred road is getting an 8km upgrade!
When I read the strong buy positions by @anon.y.mouse I am mindful that the connected company Phoenix Copper through directors is already listed in US and appear at face value a better option, or at least a good template for CRTM to follow. Shared information may give rise to CRTM improving.
@korriban I think 90 day completion of the road would indicate it mustn't be in severe decay if the intention is to make all weather and longterm road worthy for 40tn vehicles to move product. A lot of work goes into road building and is especially impacted by pre-existing, soil condition, terrain and topography etc. The estimated time is 4-7 days per kilometer in the area depending of degredation and provided the road materials, personnel, permissions etc are available. So at the low end I am thinking 110 days and higher 200 days for them to create such a stretch of road. CRTM to prove me wrong and maybe it is I who left the calculator at home today and someone can tell be the speed 1km of road can be rehabilitated especially in an area prone to rain even after the rainy season has passed (https://www.weathercrave.com/weather-forecast-democratic-republic-of-congo/city-610705/weather-forecast-kasenga-today). I will probably have to setup an imagery account to show the current state. Timely they came out 5 days after my post and said road works starting. Maybe they listen to me more than my wife or finally decided to use their money after the rise in negative commentary.
I have to agree. They have prior connectivity having rebuffed them previously. i cannot see anyone making a move to step in so £6.20 seems right to me once contracts finalised.
I have been watching CRTM a while and have numerous questions before I make any decisions but the main ones are around leadership, transparency, road worthiness and importantly the potential for profit. To this end I have sought out 2 people with help from my niece online to get the ground truth on the road that appears to be the route cause for investor concern. Ignoring Critical Metals claims I just want to know the feasibility on moving the metals as I cannot invest in something which as the baseline doesn't even have processing covered. I absolutely agree with Katstangler there has been a 'manipulated and deferred progress' report on the mine. So lets get the facts and make an informed decision. I don't seem to be able to update with images so will look elsewhere to post and leave a link here.