Backwoodsman - there is no longer any discussion to obfuscate, you have managed to suffocate it quite successfully. A question for you since you are the one who likes to throw them out.
Once you have managed to satisfy yourself, to the necessary level of rigour that you are claiming to be seeking, that the investment case here satisfies your extreme standards. Just how much do you plan to invest (as a third go) ?
@BBN - I too was considering that they might have been stock piling concentrate. My considerations are really more about growth than limping along at current levels (which I think probably could just about be maintained in the short term). just FYI, I've been playing about with a model for Vanchem production and I'm of the opinion that current ore supply is not as rich as that available from Vametco or ultimately from Mokopane. (either that or the one Kiln operating at Vanchem is operating considerably sub-optimally). Point being that we could see an almost immediate uplift in production by transitioning to either Vametco ore or supply from Mokopane.
@BBN - I'm not completely in agreement with you on this one. From day one I don't doubt that Vanchem ore needs can be serviced from Vametco but I don't see this as having significant longevity and I do believe that we need to see Mokopane development to be able to sustain both current production levels but more importantly growth.
Right now Vametco moves a little over seven and a half thousand tonnes of rocks per day. To sustain Vanchem at it's current production level requires an addition (approx.) eighteen hundred tonnes of rocks per day. Whilst there is some additional crushing and milling capacity at Vanchem it is a far better solution to do that as close to the point of quarrying as possible and that means for me at Mokopane.
If we wish to see both Vametco and Vanchem to grow then significant additional groundworks will be necessary (and that mean a lot of big heavy plant wheeling around the pits) Vametco cannot sustain that expansion economically, logistically or safely for both Processing plants.
We need Mokopane, we need groundworks as a matter of priority and we do not have and in my view could not achieve sufficient supply from Vametco alone.
@BBN = thanks again for all your efforts. Just to add a little for your consideration:
You will recall that most of my recent experience comes from a mining background, but Oil is not that dissimilar in respect of the points I'm about to elucidate. (OK that was my disclaimer...)
I think the discrepancy between the CoS from the company and that from their Broker is very easily explained and reconciled. A Cos is actually a very lazy descriptor. More accurately (and under the pertinent regulations), we define a PoS or Probability of success, of which there are different types. At the first level there is the PoS based on the Geology. Here is a definition I have lifted:
"The probability of success is the ratio of success cases over all outcomes. It is used as "success ratio" of a play or area in which a number of wells have been drilled. In prospect appraisal it is a parameter of the expectation curve, indicating the chance of having more than some minimum. "
Depending on the prospect appraisal method, PoS will be estimated in different ways. The most common approach is to take the petroleum system as a basis. The system specifies the necessary geological ingredients (factors) to enable an oil field to be formed, in particular, these required factors are defined as independent. The usual factors are source, maturity, migration, trap and seal. Estimates of the PoS of these factors can then be multiplied to give the PoS of the prospect. How those "estimates" are arrived at are defined by regulation and are not just a wet finger waving exercise.
Now the difference between the Company "CoS" and the Brokers is probably as simple as one of definition. Having established a gPoS (Geological probability of Success), then the PoS for Technical success and for Commercial success can be estimated from standard expectation curves for different geologies. Or putting it more simply, the Company Cos is probably an estimate of Geological or Technical PoS whereas the Broker is more than likely using an estimate of Commercial PoS.
In all eventualities, these estimates are signed of by an independent competent person certified to a very high standard probably with 25 to 30 years of experience.
This from section 4.6 of the regs:
Permitted Discharge Notifications. Under the provisions of OPPC, permits are granted to regulate the discharge of oil that may occur as a consequence of certain offshore oil and gas exploration and production activities and gas loading and unloading activities. These discharges include, but are not limited to, oil in produced water, oil in drainage water and oil on sand/scale. Each permit granted includes terms and conditions associated with the discharge that must be adhered to by the permit holder. It is recognised that there may be occasions when a discharge of oil as a consequence of an activity regulated by an OPPC permit is made in such quantities or circumstances that it has the potential to affect the environment or other users of the sea, regardless of whether or not there has been a non-compliance with any permit condition. Under these circumstances a PON1 Permitted Discharge Notification must be notified to raise awareness of oil in the sea and to provide a mechanism for relevant authorities to respond if required. A PON1 Permitted Discharge Notification must be submitted if the discharge:
• exceeds 1 tonne of oil to sea in any 12 hour period;
• causes a sheen which appears more significant when compared with a sheen observed during normal operations and weather conditions and extends out with the installation’s 500 metre zone;
• otherwise has the potential to cause significant environmental impact or affect other users of the sea e.g. oil has potential to reach shore or will impact upon wildlife and /or users of the sea (installation operators will be required to assess on a case-by-case basis whether circumstances dictate that a PON1 should be submitted to raise awareness of oil in the sea in accordance with their installation location and oil pollution emergency plan arrangements).
I'm still wondering about that Oil Discharge Permit request. I wonder if that is a consequence of finding oil shows in an upper sand which now "contaminates" drilling fluids (mud) recirculation requiring the permit. Again the definition is: "Oil Discharge Permit will therefore be required for the injection, or re-injection, of discharge streams containing oil".
Pure speculation as I'm no an oily - I would be very interested to hear from anyone with first hand Rig experience.
or...…...including the fully funded contingency we are not yet even half way through the potential drilling window. We have drilled a hole and run confirmative down hole seismics to better evaluate our final drill position to maximise its impact. And we can still look forward to results with the potential to add hundreds of millions of barrels of reserves to our ledger.
Language is a wonderful tool isn't it.
Rules for Successful Bashing:
1. Be anonymous
2. Use 10% fact. 90% suggestion. The facts will lend credibility to your suggestions.
3. Let others help you learn about the stock. Build rapport and a
support base before initiating your Bashing routine.
4. Enter w/ humor and reply to all who reply to you.
5. Use multiple ISP's, handles and aliases.
6. Use two (2) or more aliases to simulate a discussion.
7. Do not start with an all out slam of the stock. Build softly.
8. Identify your foes (Longs) and the boards "guru" Use them to
your advantage. Lead them do not follow their lead.
9. Only Bash until the tide/momentum turns. Let doubt carry it the
rest of the way.
10. Give the appearance of being open minded.
11. Be bold in your statements. People follow strength.
12. Write headlines in caps with catchy statements.
13. Pour it on as your position gains momentum. Not your personality.
14. Don't worry about being labeled a "Basher". Newbies won't
know your history.
15. When identified put up a brief fight, then back off. Return in an hour unless your foe is a weak in reasoning powers.
16. Your goal is to limit the momentum of the run. Not to tank the
company or create a plunge in the stock; be subtle and consistent.
17. Kill the dreams of profits, not the company or the stock.
18. Use questions to create critical thinking. Statements to
19. DO NOT LIE, NAME CALL or USE PROFANITY.
20. Encourage people to call the company. 99% won't. They'll take your word for claims made. If they do call you can always find something that is inaccurate in how they report their findings.
21. Discourage people from believing Press Releases.
Encourage them to call the company. They won't out of laziness.
22. If the companies history/PR's are negative constantly point to that. Compile a list of this data prior to beginning your efforts.
23. If the price rises blame it on the hype or the PR, temporary
mass reaction, the market, etc. Anything but the stock itself.
24. If other posters share your concerns, play on that and share theirs too.
25. Always cite low volume, even when it's not.
26. Three or four aliases can dominate a board and wear down the longs.
27. Bait the Longs into personal debates putting their
focus/efforts on you and not the stock or facts. Divert their attention from facts.
28. Promote other stocks that would-be investors can turn to
instead of the one your Bashing.
30. Do not fall for challenges on the "values" of what you are doing, it's a game and you are playing it with your own rules.
If you suspect multiple ID's then you need to ask Admin to check IP addresses in your comment when you report. The BMN board was plagued by multi avatar individuals at one time and this approach helped Admin clean up somewhat
I love it - the fact that they have to work this hard just makes me smile. AIM is a mire for opportunism from the dregs of the financial sector. If you've researched, you trust your research and you have the resilience to stick to your guns, ultimately you will be rewarded.