The Targets here are like a stack of pancakes. Sands of various thicknesses pancaked between shales. It is possible that they found something higher than expected (there were early rumours of "oil shows" remember) and that to make sure they got through all the pancakes, including those they didn't expect to find hydrocarbons in, they decided to go diagonally to ensure more pancakes got tagged. Less time efficient but potentially more thorough.
Not long until we find out now.
You know I actually enjoy reading some posts now that I never thought I would. It really is amazing to see how long it is possible to keep flogging the same moot narratives. If I wasn't reading it with my own eyes I'd never have thought it possible. Even the Trump couldn't beat this for unceasing fact free, innuendo laced diatribe. Remarkable, truly remarkable.
This is the usual behaviour when no one can elicit leaked info. Good tight ship bodes well. My guess...…. on day 15, the company probably already know the result. MM's collecting cheap shares for their long position to maximise their gains.
My view is that we won't develop Serenity, it will be sold either in total or in part (for a free carry) as part of a wider Tain development and the cash used to develop Liberator without further debt.
Thanks @BBN - I took the time to read and pick through the CPR for Liberator yesterday. I think that there is some evidence to suggest that the risks on the last drill were actually discussed in that document - I suggest anyone interested should read it and form their own opinions. I am additionally reminded of many of the reasons why I like the look of this drilling campaign and I'm actually looking forward to the next Liberator drill even more than I am this current Serenity drill.
Either one has the capacity to rapidly and significantly inflate the share price - but the Liberator one with ease and proximity for moving rapidly to production is really exciting.
Backwoodsman - there is no longer any discussion to obfuscate, you have managed to suffocate it quite successfully. A question for you since you are the one who likes to throw them out.
Once you have managed to satisfy yourself, to the necessary level of rigour that you are claiming to be seeking, that the investment case here satisfies your extreme standards. Just how much do you plan to invest (as a third go) ?
@BBN - I too was considering that they might have been stock piling concentrate. My considerations are really more about growth than limping along at current levels (which I think probably could just about be maintained in the short term). just FYI, I've been playing about with a model for Vanchem production and I'm of the opinion that current ore supply is not as rich as that available from Vametco or ultimately from Mokopane. (either that or the one Kiln operating at Vanchem is operating considerably sub-optimally). Point being that we could see an almost immediate uplift in production by transitioning to either Vametco ore or supply from Mokopane.
@BBN - I'm not completely in agreement with you on this one. From day one I don't doubt that Vanchem ore needs can be serviced from Vametco but I don't see this as having significant longevity and I do believe that we need to see Mokopane development to be able to sustain both current production levels but more importantly growth.
Right now Vametco moves a little over seven and a half thousand tonnes of rocks per day. To sustain Vanchem at it's current production level requires an addition (approx.) eighteen hundred tonnes of rocks per day. Whilst there is some additional crushing and milling capacity at Vanchem it is a far better solution to do that as close to the point of quarrying as possible and that means for me at Mokopane.
If we wish to see both Vametco and Vanchem to grow then significant additional groundworks will be necessary (and that mean a lot of big heavy plant wheeling around the pits) Vametco cannot sustain that expansion economically, logistically or safely for both Processing plants.
We need Mokopane, we need groundworks as a matter of priority and we do not have and in my view could not achieve sufficient supply from Vametco alone.
@BBN = thanks again for all your efforts. Just to add a little for your consideration:
You will recall that most of my recent experience comes from a mining background, but Oil is not that dissimilar in respect of the points I'm about to elucidate. (OK that was my disclaimer...)
I think the discrepancy between the CoS from the company and that from their Broker is very easily explained and reconciled. A Cos is actually a very lazy descriptor. More accurately (and under the pertinent regulations), we define a PoS or Probability of success, of which there are different types. At the first level there is the PoS based on the Geology. Here is a definition I have lifted:
"The probability of success is the ratio of success cases over all outcomes. It is used as "success ratio" of a play or area in which a number of wells have been drilled. In prospect appraisal it is a parameter of the expectation curve, indicating the chance of having more than some minimum. "
Depending on the prospect appraisal method, PoS will be estimated in different ways. The most common approach is to take the petroleum system as a basis. The system specifies the necessary geological ingredients (factors) to enable an oil field to be formed, in particular, these required factors are defined as independent. The usual factors are source, maturity, migration, trap and seal. Estimates of the PoS of these factors can then be multiplied to give the PoS of the prospect. How those "estimates" are arrived at are defined by regulation and are not just a wet finger waving exercise.
Now the difference between the Company "CoS" and the Brokers is probably as simple as one of definition. Having established a gPoS (Geological probability of Success), then the PoS for Technical success and for Commercial success can be estimated from standard expectation curves for different geologies. Or putting it more simply, the Company Cos is probably an estimate of Geological or Technical PoS whereas the Broker is more than likely using an estimate of Commercial PoS.
In all eventualities, these estimates are signed of by an independent competent person certified to a very high standard probably with 25 to 30 years of experience.