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Looking at your earlier comparisons below Jatw, HCM's relative performance could be due to market consolidation speculation post Takeda deal.
Hedge fund favourite is to go long the strongest player and short the weakest, thereby creating a natural hedge.
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HCM certainly has momentum behind it…..but china pharma recent performance has been selective- last 6m
HCM+13%
Innovent +10%
Beigene -23%
Junshi -38%
This has understandably had a good run….if it keeps going it will be around 375p at PDUFA date.
I wonder when some more significant profit taking will set in?
What are you doing 1pencil? are you buying?
It cant be anymore than 20 posts since you were selling at 200p or thereabouts, now at 300p you are buying ?
Haha well I am buying again at the moment ;o-)
What price did you sell out davey..lol
That was a pretty strong move NASDAQ, double daily volumes against a weak main market, ended at the highs too.
It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Hutchmed were in play with the likes of Astra
Sorry Amones, yes it was, apologies for the lack of context
I thought it was interesting given AZ's tie-up with HCM. Not directly related of course but I thouigh the background iswas interesting and relevant
Was this post meant for AZN message board? Just checked AZN board, couldn’t see it posted.
Or, is there relevance to HCM?
AstraZeneca has said that an anti-corruption investigation launched by China in the healthcare sector has hit prescription volumes and access to doctors.
The FTSE 100 pharmaceuticals company, which is the biggest multinational drug group operating in the world’s second-largest economy, issued the warning in an “aide memoire” before its third-quarter trading update next month.
President Xi’s administration intensified a clampdown on bribery, embezzlement and fraud across the country’s healthcare sector in August. Hospital bosses and chief executives of local drug companies have been detained, pharma company access to hospitals has been curtailed, share prices have been hit and initial public offerings have been pulled.
Beijing’s campaign has created further uncertainty for overseas drug companies active in the country. AstraZeneca has grown quickly in China over the past decade, with the country accounting for 13 per cent of its $44.3 billion total group sales last year, up from 5 per cent a decade ago.
Underlining the growing importance of China to AstraZeneca’s future, Leon Wang, who heads its China operations, vowed in May that it would be a patriotic company that “loves the Communist Party and loves the country” during celebrations to mark the 30th anniversary of AstraZeneca in China.
In the note to investors and analysts AstraZeneca said it anticipated that the corruption investigation would “benefit compliant companies in the longer term” but said “the company has seen a reduction in access to physicians as well as some negative impact on prescription volumes. These investigations were not anticipated at the time of first-half results [in July].”
Analysts at Stifel told clients that the expectation had been for a return to growth in China this year for AstraZeneca, adding: “The statement underpins possible unexpected consequences on the business impacting the end of the third quarter and possibly fourth quarter.”
A good rise in NY has put the theoretical UK price over £3.
Of course there is the small matter of a second war that could develop in unpredictable ways over the weekend.
There still seems to be momentum with 6 weeks til the PDUFA date…..
HCM certainly has momentum behind it…..but china pharma recent performance has been selective- last 6m
HCM+13%
Innovent +10%
Beigene -23%
Junshi -38%
The continued doldrums for Beigene perhaps presents a rotation opportunity once the gains in HCM and Innovent start to level off. Davey has previously told us Beigene is more expensive on various metrics…although part of that must be the relative maturity of the company and where it is in launching its pipeline.
For once the analysts got it right, markets did go up HK around 2% on back of bank stimulus.
Shorts trending down with another drop NASDAQ this time, can be very few if any reasons to go short, reverse and long is the name of the game..
Could end the week starting with a 3..who knows..
It did say it was not progressing with the submission in Japan but it gave no details as to why.
It would be a brave regulator that accepts a small bridge when it was not accepted by US / EU so my guess would be the regulator indicated they would not accept it…..but it may also be the case that the results were below expectations…..
Having said it was MCRT ready, and strongly pressed the partner model for global work, that it has been difficult to get a partner signed up to help take it forward….but if they dont take it forward I would have doubts about the longevity of the China earnings as competition will not be far away.
Compounding, has the company announced the results of Sulanda bridging study conducted in Japan? Latest information from last year was about commencement of enrolling cases for the global ph3 study. Is it the lack of updates/ publication of results the reason behind the ‘apparent’ assumption?
Closed in US bang on where UK closed, China is gradually coming out of post Covid dip - analysts calling markets up from here, US sanctions are largely priced in and fairly limited in scope.
New factory opening should help with margins generally, time to back off on R & D/CAPEX and benefit from past expenditure.
I'd like to think that Hutchmed would work to in-license other firms drugs into China to leverage their extensive coverage and sales network. They need to continue to think more flexibly and be dynamic in their path towards becoming profitable as soon as they can. Interesting price movement on NASDAQ today - it was up over 10% a short time ago........
Johnson & Johnson Vision eyes more innovations, investments in nation
Peter Menziuso, company group chairman for Johnson & Johnson Vision, said during his recent visit to Shanghai: "China is one of our top markets for growth. We will continue to support investments in China."
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202310/10/WS6524a4a0a31090682a5e7a43.html
Bayer plans to invest more in China
"We can see a lot of innovations in the country … In the pharmaceutical area, new medicines that have been introduced in the United States and Europe can now be also introduced immediately in China,"
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202310/11/WS6525f2dda31090682a5e7d85.html
I think how things stand it is pretty likely that they have deprioritized suru globally. The last chance was the Japan bridging study, which apparently hasnt produced the desired result.
The october update is now available,,,,,TBH I struggled to find much change.
They are still maintaining Amdiz could be submitted as NDA this year, but given no read out at yet and we are 2 months past the Sovlep readout with no NDA filed it is looking less and less likely.
The other item we could do with an update on is the global approach for Surufatinib……it is 18m on from the CRL and there is no news….earlier this year it was described as ph3 ready. Some possible explanations are 1 they are in negotiation with a partner and will announce the trial and partnership together, 2 the combination of suru + Tori is far superior and they will take that to the global stage once the China trial completes. 3 a competitor is about to knock out suru with a much better product. 4 they have deprioritised global suru and are not pursuing it.
Oct 8 (Reuters) - Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY.N) on Sunday said it will acquire cancer drug maker Mirati Therapeutics (MRTX.O) for up to $5.8 billion, diversifying its oncology business and adding drugs it hopes can help offset expected lost revenue from patent expirations later this decade.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/bristol-myers-squibb-acquire-mirati-48-billion-deal-2023-10-08/#:~:text=Oct%208%20(Reuters)%20%2D%20Bristol,patent%20expirations%20later%20this%20decade.
Deals being done with Chinese pharma companies
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12609655/GSK-agrees-2-5bn-shingles-vaccine-deal-Chinas-Zhifei.html
As predicted/hoped for by 1pencil we seem to have a consolidation around 270p.
While other HK stocks experienced some recent declines HCM did not….the bio pharma market in HK now seems to be advancing, so hopeful of further gains ahead of the PDUFA date….the main catalysts for 2024 lie in China approvals and Takeda global sales….
That is the sort of premium that makes for a knock out bid - not out of line with historic bids for developmental companies…..once it is clear they have something novel that is likely to work…
A Takeda drug for NSCLC has been voluntarily withdrawn in the US after its confirmatory Ph3 trial unexpectedly failed…..With some NDAs expected soon from Ph II studies, we should expect more confirmatory trials for HCMs second wave portfolio.