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In prepared remarks for a dinner hosted by the U.S.-China Business Council, Yellen said “continuing to stabilize our relationship to prevent escalation won’t make news. But our economies, our people — and, again, also economies and people around the world — will be safer and more secure.”
She said boosting collaboration between the two countries was another priority, especially in areas pertaining to climate change.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/15/us-china-relations-janet-yellen-outlines-plan-to-improve-ties.html
"In the future, through deepening collaboration with local partners, Takeda plans to continue to invest in data, digital modalities and related technology to drive its growth in China at a pace that is expected to outperform the market average over the medium to long-term horizon, said the company."
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202312/13/WS65790663a31040ac301a7775.html
As per references from the pubmed, during 2020, number of new cases of Stomach cancer in China was 478,000 and that of CRC was 555,477.
Mortality during 2020: CRC related mortality was 286,162 and Stomach cancer related mortality 373,789.
I'm not sure this is accurate. Company always says that Gastric is about 2x the size of mCRC. That makes me think that the opportunity for Elunate in Gastric is 2x the size of mCRC.
Good news today. Both elunate and Suru keep the same prices on the NRDL...
On today’s NRFL update, they say mCRC has about 10% more cases in china than gastric…..sp the opportunity for GC will depend on the subset Elunate targets….and a similar size to CRC.
the trial enrolment is for a 2025 NDA submission.,,,data likely early 2025, 65k Chinese patients pa,
The innovent update indicated that new treatments need to be added to NRDL…but presumable this is quicker for a drug already on the list
For Gastric cancer incidence See p19 of the corporate presentation…..it is the 5th most common cancer 1.09m new cases globally and 478k in china, 140k in Japan (they dont suggest numbers outside Asia which is 60% of cases)….that will be divided into the various drivers of the disease….but I would say these numbers suggest a bigger opportunity than mCRC overall and one that Takeda is likely to take forward..
Thank you Jatw for your detailed response. Yes, gastric malignancy indication will be significant, if Fruq NDA gets approval by the Chinese authority for that indication. Helpful to the patients and clinicians. Do we have a number of cases of diagnosed cases per year in China?
Have not seen any dates for Europe and Japan…..they could be a standard year from submission….US had given priority review.
The next Fruq news may well be approval of the Gastric Cancer sNDA, if that is a year it should be April 24.
I assume this second indication gets immediate benefit from the NRDL already applying to Elunate which will certainly assist with take up.
most probably, the next expected helpful news would be ema and japanese mhlw approvals for fru*****inib in previously treated metastatic crc. following successful nda approval by fda, takeda must be, more or less, expecting similar outcomes in europe and japan. do we have any probable announcement dates for ema and japan mhlw decisions?
..squeegee time lol
(again)
I got all excited when I read they were divesting some of their non-pharma business…..thought it might be the $1bn value release some attribute to the JVs…but that was not to be.
A mere $5m which is only a few days expenses.
Hong Kong stocks rebounded from a 13-month low after a rout prompted companies, including WuXi Biologics and Meituan, to unveil measures to support their share prices. Buyers returned, with the market approaching levels deemed technically oversold on charts.
The Hang Seng Index rose 0.8 per cent to 16,463.26 at close, clawing back some of the 4.2 per cent loss in the preceding three days. The Tech Index rallied 1.8 per cent but the Shanghai Composite Index eased 0.1 per cent.
https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3244003/hong-kong-stocks-snap-3-day-slide-wuxi-biologics-sands-china-lead-rebound-buying-support
the latest rns regarding clinical data presentations at 2023 esmo asia and esmo immuno-oncology congresses makes an interesting reading. clinical studies using fru*****inib for other indications like gynaecological and gastric malignancies as well as for nsclc.
ex-china fru*****inib sales arrangement with takeda has been valued a billion dollars. takeda might have foreseen and studied such prospects, correctly. hope studies come out successfully.
Errr, can we call it a grey market please...
For a patient it's worth sending a relation to pick up a few boxes...
If that pricing value proves to hold,HCM will receive as a royalty more than 2x the revenue per customer in US as in China..and it is all profit ex-china,
It is somewhat surprising there is not a huge black market in the US…
takeda now have a public website which includes their financial assistance program details:-
https://www.fruzaqla.com/
here is interesting comentary from seeking alpha:-
https://www.stockilluminati.com/hcm/display.php?url=https%3a%2f%2fwww.stockilluminati.com%2fhcm%2fsanews.html
and here is some very interesting intel on the pricing:-
(published: 3:04pm, 29 nov, 2023) “fru*****inib, which will be marketed as fruzaqla in the us by tokyo-based takeda pharmaceutical company, will also face a price bump similar to that of toripalimab. a box of 21 pills each containing 5mg of the drug is sold in china for around 7,500 yuan (us$1,050), according to chinese medical news site medical valley. its us wholesale price will be us$25,200 for the same amount of medication, according to a takeda prescribing document, putting it at 24 times the cost in china”
https://pdf.defence.pk/threads/chinas-new-cancer-drug-toripalimab-is-approved-in-the-us-but-will-cost-30-times-more.780555/
Again, aggressive market making with NASDAQ shorts dropping yesterday to lowest point over 12 months.
For those looking to buy in what an opportunity, China backdrop has arguably never been better along with commentary below.
Obv the HKD should be 30, not 60 - that was the peak value immediately after the HK equity raise - which with the benefit of hindsight has proven to be the right size.
Important statements from Mr To recently that no further funding is needed - the only dilution is from executive and employee share schemes.
It will be interesting to find out in 2026 what their plans for excess capital are. Will they commence dividend payments? Do buy backs? Or invest in the business (like their plans for a new HK research base - or spend more on the pipeline)……
20USD/60HKD/320p take your pick
Still only half the HK listing price…….and 66% of the 30USD PE funded the company at.
Many investors are significantly underwater.
Why do we need a squeegee? When a hammer is what is needed.
Get your squeegee out, $20 glass celling incoming ..
Always good to get more press coverage, doesn't take much to move the needle with Hutchmed given low free float.
This is a link to the New Drugs ("1+" mechanism) described below, should help the broader healthcare market return to more normalized valuations.
https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/202310/26/P2023102600381.htm#:~:text=The%20%221%2B%22%20mechanism%20will%20facilitate%20the%20registration%20of%20new,early%20access%20to%20new%20drugs.
Https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3242840/ck-hutchison-backed-hutchmed-eyes-global-expansion-after-fda-approval-novel-cancer-drug
CKH / Hutchmed getting some press coverage in HK
Detailed Sovlep results publication and submission of NDA in China.
Amdiz high level result of registration study.
First sales of Fruq in USA? Could easily happen, Takeda was going to launch asap.
Takeda to test Fruq in GC in Japan/S Korea? Seems a logical approach given China sNDA is in.
EMA approval for Fruq? Have not seen a date for this, I assume it is H1 2024.
That's a great link, plenty of info - should help raise Hutchmeds profile amongst the investment community too.
"Hong Kong has been striving to attract tech firms to the city and is to launch a new "1+" mechanism to accelerate the approval of new drugs treating life-threatening diseases, which require only one certificate of pharmaceutical product with local clinical data."
Https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news/section/2/258113/Hutchmed-is-coming-home
"Hutchmed is confident of breaking into profit soon as the drug could bring about US$100 million (HK$780 million) in royalties from its sales partner Takeda. To also said Hutchmed doesn't need to raise more funds as it has sufficient cash for future expenses."