Member Info for compoundingm

Unbelievable how weak the share price is...

From what I know the earliest possible approval for both ITP and Waiha is February 2027. They needed to do a stability test in conjunction with the re-submission and such a test usually has to run for 12 months.

Takeda just released their FY numbers. Q4 revenues was on the softer side for Fruzaqla with 12,2bn JPY, bringing total revenues to 55,1bn JPY for their FY. (q1: 12,3bn / q2: 15bn / q3: 15,6bn / q4: 12,2bn).

But the outlook for FY26 is very positive with 72bn projected sales (+31%). That would translate into 460m USD.

The commercial performance in the first half was unexpectedly super disappointing. They expected in-market sales growth of 30% for FY2025 and they delivered -4%.

According to the CEO this was transitory and June and July have gone well (apparently back at levels they'd have expected for the year), but I really wonder if we can believe in this outlook.

Hutchmed stake is valued at HK IPO price (44) in CKH accounts. I doubt they would sell below that mark.

And nobody cares...thats the scary thing

You can find additional info here: https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/after-key-win-over-astrazenecas-tagrisso-jj-touts-rybrevant-lazcluze-combo-new-standard-care

Savolitinib is not mentioned. This was a head to head study of rybrevant vs. tagrisso

J&J's new cancer combo beats AstraZeneca's Tagrisso on survival in lung trial

https://endpts.com/jjs-combo-beats-tagrisso-on-survival-in-first-line-lung-cancer/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=723+-+JJ+says+new+cancer+combo+tops+Tagrisso+Alloy+and+Sanofi+link+up+Basic&utm_content=723+-+JJ+says+new+cancer+combo+tops+Tagrisso+Alloy+and+Sanofi+link+up+Basic+CID_37b6897e45c8d689e830c2685a1aa7dc&utm_source=ENDPOINTS+emails&utm_term=JJs+new+cancer+combo+beats+AstraZenecas+Tagrisso+on+survival+in+lung+trial

The company was relatively outspoken about this, stating a few times that positive results from Savannah would be sufficient for a submission.

After the release today, any other outcome would be a big disappointment...

But I must confess that I was also a bit surprised to not read anything about it in the RNS...

I think the guideline from the company on capital returns is pretty clear. They wont be paying out any sort of dividend or wont be doing buybacks in the near term.

Their north star at the moment is getting to sustainable profitability. Achieved this, they'll probably move to invest more in R&D as the discovery engine will put out new candidates in the next year.s...

My concern is that they're probably a bit too tentative in investing into the business and in terms of potential M&A deals - all bc of this break even target...

Got that, thank you.

Are you sure that the 10,1bn HPY revenue isn't the quarterly number and from approval in november?

I'm not sure this is accurate. Company always says that Gastric is about 2x the size of mCRC. That makes me think that the opportunity for Elunate in Gastric is 2x the size of mCRC.

Good news today. Both elunate and Suru keep the same prices on the NRDL...

Https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news/section/2/258113/Hutchmed-is-coming-home

"Hutchmed is confident of breaking into profit soon as the drug could bring about US$100 million (HK$780 million) in royalties from its sales partner Takeda. To also said Hutchmed doesn't need to raise more funds as it has sufficient cash for future expenses."

I think how things stand it is pretty likely that they have deprioritized suru globally. The last chance was the Japan bridging study, which apparently hasnt produced the desired result.

Up >9% in HK today with >6m volume..

Some context on the chinese economy/markets

https://research.gavekal.com/article/making-sense-of-the-china-meltdown-story/

Good, but nobody does care...its intersting. I remember when they presented the Frutiga study on gastric cancer (where they have missed 1 endpoint) the stock was up heavily..

I'm afraid this is not old...see: http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/analysis/stock-aafn-con/06160/NOW.1284403/hk-stock-news

My view is that in the end all this will benefit the innnovative Players like Hutchmed.

Behind paywall:

https://scrip.pharmaintelligence.informa.com/SC148833/Storm-Coming-Commercial-Compliance-Crackdown-Shocks-China-Pharma-Industry?utm_source=dailyem,sfmc&utm_medium=email,email&utm_campaign=,Scrip%20Daily%20(Tues%20-%20Fri)