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That's not a bad recovery considering NASDAQ on its botty yet again for nearly 2%
J&J has published a trial result that pitted its treatment against Tagrisso and they say it has been successful in some respects.
The main risk for any treatment is that a better one comes along…..I have long thought that AZ is holding back Savolitinib to be able to extend Tagrisso’s market with a combination therapy….I wonder if this news from JNJ will accelerate the need to bring Savolitinib to market outside China?
Good spot davey, momentum seems to be with us, relatively small free float is on our side also.
HK shorts still trending down
Happy to hear this too "The FDA review is progressing and the inspection of HUTCHMED’s manufacturing facility in Suzhou, China has been completed"
"alongside our partner takeda, we are pleased to take this key step towards bringing fru*****inib to patients in japan," said dr. michael shi, head of r&d and chief medical officer of hutchmed. "supported by a strong clinical data set, and its success in china, we believe that fru*****inib is an important option for these patients and are optimistic about the impact it will have if approved in japan. there is now real regulatory momentum behind fru*****inib, and we are excited to see this drug take to the global stage."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/hcm/nda-submission-for-fru*****inib-in-japan-2twsm9x5g82e7j8.html
It has rushed up to and exceeded 270….
Another day in HK where it outperformed peers (Beigene, Junshi, Innovent all down 3% or more). A low volume session generally and for Biotech in particular.
There is a clear price catalyst for HCM with the PDUFA date now 2 months away. Once that is past, some drift back may set in.
Six month performance of NASDAQ awful, HCM not doing too bad given this - can it bust through glass ceiling at $17 ?
The small fall in HK this morning was still a relative outperformance by, HCM.
About 9 weeks until the PDUFA day.
While the science may be compelling there are many other potential issues that could cause delay.
I think I recall that a Swiss plant is going to be used for manufacture, which would reduce the risk associated with delays caused by on site inspections in China.
Not a bad day across the pond, nudging $17 dough-lars
Several of those Invesco points have been mentioned or discussed here previously, good to have third party input though.
China healthcare a unique multidecade investment bet
Among the more promising sectors, we believe healthcare is a unique multidecade investment opportunity. Spending on healthcare had soared over the past decades from under 500 billion yuan ($68.46 billion) in 2000 to more than 6.5 trillion yuan in 2019. China's healthcare market is now the second-largest globally and in 2021 generated 10 trillion yuan in total revenue. China's healthcare sector looks set for a sustained revival in 2023.
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202309/25/WS6510e2e7a310d2dce4bb79a5.html
Scotty Kilmer, not really anything to do with Hutchmed but has a few words on US/China relations which I think has some merit, he speaks a lot of sense on a range of subjects which resonate with a lot of people.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buL7YuB2OgM
We are seeing above average volume on these upward moves, if HCM can consolidate around 270p area then 325p should be achievable on a positive outcome
HK short data, small reduction but going the right way - not sure how much actual use these figures are as delayed.
8,715,618 > 8,600,618
We are still way under valued on all metrics including DCF compared to Beigene and Innovent, something that must surely correct itself at some point
The actual movement on the day may well be negative…..depending on how many short term traders are looking to book a profit after running the price up…. buy the rumour and sell the fact. …..it is entirely possible that today’s price already reflects the expected approval…but we suspect the price of this share is somewhat detached from prospects.
a thorny subject jatw - i was in hk the day fru*****inib was approved, which as you will recall was hutchmed's first every approved drug - the share price went down quite significantly, so i am not sure what the market will do.
that said, the first ever global approval should be more significant, even though it's now out licensed to takeda
325p sounds fair, and maybe we will get quite of lot of short covering to help
Anyone like to offer a guess for the share price the day after the PDUFA decision?
I’ll start:
Approved - 325p (I think we will see the recent upward trend continue as approval unlocks further value)
Not approved 150p (I consider this unlikely given the priority review and the medical experts commentary and it would shock the market)
Hutchmed starting to stand out a bit more with Takeda backing, BeiGene not so lucky.
I am not a chartist…..but there does seem to be some generally upward momentum in the 3m shareprice.
Third of daily NASDAQ volume traded in first five minutes?
Hopefully shorts covering ahead of PDUFA in a few weeks time
Up >9% in HK today with >6m volume..
HK following NASDAQ with reduction of short interest, been a while but around 18% drop between 1st - 8th Sept reports
Just figured out what happened, it went into extended auction adding another 5 minutes to the UT trade hence 16.40 UT
There must have put a lump on to buy outside of daily trading range triggering extension.
Very strange….some sort of glitch….there is no equivalent movement on NASDAQ, maybe these trades will be unwound as errors….but I dont expect they will influence Monday’s prices in HK.
Never seen that before whole bunch of AT trades after the bell, bit of size too at least for HCM