Hutchmed Share Chat (HCM)

Summary and Recommendations

Hutchison MediPharma is currently in a transitional period where "old growth drivers are declining and new growth drivers have not fully taken over." In the short term, limited by declining performance and market sentiment, the stock price may continue to bottom out; however, in the medium to long term, it holds a large amount of cash and has an overseas expansion strategy, so the downside potential is relatively limited.

If you intend to participate, it is recommended not to blindly chase the highs or heavily bet on short-term rebounds. Instead, patiently wait for the right-side trend to become clear (such as a breakout of the resistance level with increased volume), or closely monitor the achievement of its 2026 oncology business revenue guidance and the clinical progress of its ATTC pipeline.

3. Will the market be subject to speculation in the future? Is the market capitalization too large or too small?

Regarding your mention of "expectations of speculation" and "market capitalization," we need to view them objectively and rationally from the following two perspectives:

1. Market capitalization: Moderate market value, but constrained by liquidity.

Hutchison MediPharma currently has a total market capitalization of approximately HK$14.87 billion, placing it among the mid-sized innovative pharmaceutical companies. While this size isn't considered large for major institutional investors, its offshore H-share listing makes it vulnerable to short-selling by foreign investors or panic selling by retail investors in the current environment of weak overall liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, severely compressing its share price elasticity.

2. Are there any opportunities for speculation/reversal in the market going forward?

Although under short-term pressure, this stock is not without long-term potential. If funds attract attention in the future, the main focus will be on the following key "breakthrough points":

* Overseas business becomes a highlight: Despite the pressure from medical insurance cost control and competitors in the domestic market, its core product fruquintinib has been approved and included in medical insurance in 38 countries overseas. In 2025, overseas sales reached US$366 million (a year-on-year increase of 26%), which to some extent offset the pressure in the domestic market.

* Extremely Undervalued and Smart Money Building Positions Against the Trend: With a current market capitalization of just over HK$10 billion and year-end cash reserves of up to US$1.4 billion, it has entered an extremely undervalued range. Recent data shows that index funds such as the Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug ETF have seen significant net inflows in the bottom area, indicating that long-term funds are building positions against the trend at low levels.

* ATTC Pipeline Expectations: The company is fully committed to transforming its antibody-drug conjugate (ATTC) platform, and preclinical data for related new drugs (such as HMPL-A580) have been presented at international conferences such as AACR. If subsequent collaborations with multinational pharmaceutical companies (MNCs) can be achieved, this will be a significant catalyst for valuation recovery.

The following is a (Google Translated) post on 15 June from the Hong Kong's HCM share forum:

Hutchison MediPharma (HK|00013)

Regarding your interest in Hutchison MediPharma (00013.HK)'s recent stock price movements and fundamentals, we offer the following in-depth analysis based on recent market data and financial reports:

1. Has the HK$16-17 range successfully formed a bottom? What's the outlook for the market?

Short-term trend: It is in a weak and volatile state, and the bottom has not yet been confirmed.

Looking at recent market activity, the stock price has been hovering between HK$16 and HK$17 (e.g., the closing price on June 15 was HK$17.05), but has generally shown a downward trend. This performance is mainly due to two factors:

1. Insufficient Liquidity and Short-Selling Pressure: As a company listed solely in Hong Kong, it is highly susceptible to liquidity shortages when overall risk appetite in the Hong Kong stock market declines. Recently, turnover rates have been extremely low on some trading days, and the short-selling ratio has climbed to a relatively high level. Short sellers have exploited market sentiment to suppress the stock price, leading to a significant divergence between the stock price and fundamentals.

2. Lack of buying support from a technical perspective: Although there was a slight rebound in the early stages, the trading volume shrank significantly when the right peak was formed, reflecting a weakening of buying power. Currently, the stock price is still under pressure from the moving average and the lower Bollinger Band, and a short-term turning point still needs to wait for a signal of stabilization with increased volume.

II. Core Fundamentals: The Contradiction Between "Inflated" Profits and Pressure on the Core Business

The fundamental reason for the market's hesitation in pricing lies in the huge gap between the company's "paper prosperity" on the financial front and the weakness of its main business:

* Profit surge relies on "asset sales": In 2025, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company surged by 1111% year-on-year, but 91% of this came from a one-time gain of US$415.8 million from the sale of a 45% stake in Shanghai Hutchison Pharmaceuticals. Excluding this non-recurring gain, the company's actual profit from its core business was only about US$41 million, almost stagnant.

* Domestic sales of innovative drugs collectively slowed down: After divesting its traditional Chinese medicine "cash cow," the company's innovative drug business faces severe challenges. In 2025, sales of its three core products (fruquintinib, surufatinib, and cevotinib) declined by 13%, 45%, and 36% respectively in China. Entering the first quarter of 2026, revenue continued to decline by 18.7%, and operating cash flow remained negative, raising concerns about the "cash-generating function" of its main business.

Chinese businesses have been innovative and have significant cost advantages when developing drugs within China….but they run up against prohibitively higher costs when they try to expand into the West - hence they share the costs with established big pharma.

It will take decades of innovation for Chinese companies to grow into big pharma organically……they will have to merge and create much larger Chinese companies before they can change the approach.

The mergers will allow cost savings and pipeline rationalisations so that the best products make it to market with a bigger market share.

Hutchmed is sub-scale, so either CKHH puts its hand in its pocket or eventually Hutchmed will be merged…..in my view that is a when not an if, but it may take a while.

.

Lot off media coverage recently China biotech, story covering the hurdles faced by some Chinese frms.

'Chinese companies now account for about half of all global biotechnology business development deals, including out-licensing agreements, according to Citic Securities. Beijing has identified biotechnology as a strategic industry to help drive economic growth.'

SCMP

U.K. pharmaceutical group GSK has entered an agreement to acquire U.S.-based specialist oncology biotech Nuvalent for $10.6 billion.

CNBC

This is the share option scheme for next 10 (!) years, so the dilution for shareholders is acceptable.

the mandate to the board is pretty flexible: it can decide persons, performance criteria, holding period.

Just had to go back and check the amount of shares just in case I made an error, shares at AGM vote were the same:

(2) Number of shares entitling the holders to attend and vote on the resolution at the AGM: 872,335,120 shares, being the total number of issued shares of the Company. The Company did not hold any treasury shares (including any treasury shares held or deposited with Central Clearing and Settlement System) as at the AGM date.

This doesn't of course help the case when options vets at share prices record lows.

There's no dilution as already part of the share capital, i.e the issued shares are still the same at 872,335,120

Excluding FX conversion (dollars/pounds) we are now sitting at cash in bank 872,335,120 x 1.62p = £1.4b

Has anyone received a reply from management ?

In a single action, the company has added more than 43 million new shares to the existing stock. Shareholders’ losses are of least importance. Shamefully, during the last 2-3 months short positions have reached a peak. Ordinary shareholders can only wonder about the ‘knowledge’ of market makers to guess accurately! What lies ahead, to be sold at an excellent discount?

Looks like someone wants out at any price. Times like this when you wonder what does someone know that we do not.

Interesting read for anyone invested in Chinese pharma, certainly paints a better picture than we are currently seeing with depressed share prices.

-------------------

'A boom in outlicensing agreements leads to a debate over which Chinese firms may be first to break into overseas markets with own brands

A handful of Chinese biotechnology companies are expected to bring medications to consumers in Europe and the US under their own brand names within the next 10 to 15 years, according to policy and industry analysts.'

Source: SCMP

Hutchmed also mentioned Ai in last update, R & D budget is by far the biggest slice of expenditure plus expediting the research process could speed things up and maybe lessen the chances of regulator push-back/rejection:

'AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot said artificial intelligence is helping the company develop medicines faster, identify promising drug targets, and improve the odds of success in costly clinical trials.'

Source: CNBC

Unbelievable how weak the share price is...

Spent a few hours at the weekend looking at CK Life Sci, some parallels perhaps to Hutchmed.

These guys were in the doldrums to in 2024 with a share price around half of where it is today, since then they have made a couple of disposals and reorganised the business.

I only looked very briefly through the AR so there maybe other factors but the market has since responded well, perhaps its viewed as a consolidation candidate..?

All the HK listed biopharma have had a tough time in the last couple of weeks, HCM is reasonably typical which gives me hope there is nothing company specific about the SP weakness.

Innocare has announced NDA submission of its main drug for ITP. It is a BTK inhibitor rather than SYK (Sovlep). The internet tells me SYK inhibitors drive a higher response than BTK…..so there should not be anything to fear from Innocare impacting Sovleplenib as long as Sovlep gets approved without undue delay. The ITP therapy landscape continues to develop, a pity that HCM had its issues with impurities within the compound first time around.

I don't think the biotech backdrop has ever been this bullish, especially around China but listed companies are getting walloped ?

'Global pharmaceutical corporations “need to have a Chinese strategy”, said Stephen Farrelly, managing director and global lead for pharmaceutical and healthcare at ING, a Dutch financial services group overseeing about US$15 billion in pharmaceutical and healthcare assets globally.

“It can be a partner, or it can be [competition], but you cannot be passive because this market is evolving at the speed that you simply must pay attention to it.”

The “NewCo” model – where financial sponsors acquire Chinese drug assets and spin them into stand-alone companies for overseas development – had emerged as a growing way for Chinese biotech firms to expand globally, according to a May report by L.E.K. Consulting. Deal activity increased from two in 2024 to 16 in 2025, accounting for about 12 per cent of out-of-China licensing deals by value last year.

https://www.scmp.com

Hang Seng Index review to boost market capitalisation by 4.5%: Goldman Sachs

Tencent, BeOne Medicines, Baidu and NetEase may lure fund inflows between US$200 million and US$1 billion, due to index weighting changes

https://www.scmp.com/business/

I thought it may provide an additional way to contact CKHH, with a sort of 'hey, we're over here' sort of email, gentle reminder so to speak..

Did you get a response from your well written (and articulated) letter that you posted ?

Rising tide and all that...might spur on management get something done, or others to look at the value store here.

And I forgot a deal with Takeda in October 25 worth 1.2bn upfront and a further 10bn of potential milestone payments.

Comparing the three deals

Takeda took two developed products for immediate impact.

Lilly agreed a deal to take over a set of products for phase 3 trials and commercialisation

Pfizer will used China for all phase 1 work and then share later costs and revenues.

They are phased to meet the counterparty patent timing issues.

This suggests to me that HCM should look for two multi-asset deals

The wave of heamatology products in one deal

And the ATTC platform products.

That follows a deal announced in Feb with Lilly for the antibody conjugate programme.

L pays $350m upfront with milestone payments up to $8.5bn

The scale of these contracts is mind boggling…..the economics are that Innovent de-risks its pipeline costs and can scale the pipeline up, Lilly/Pfizer gain access to China development at pace and scale for future breakthroughs and become more marketing than development companies. The western companies get to cream off the best products and dont have to face direct chinese competition so they get to live for another cycle or two.

The reality is that only some of these programmes will pay out anything like the maximum milestone payments, the headline numbers still need a lot of operational delivery to get close.

Will the Chinese be content with being the innovators in the long run leaving Western companies to market their drugs? Or is it the reality of the spheres of influence being created as globalism retreats a little.

Anyway, for HCM there are still plenty of potential partners out there with deep pockets. They need to learn from their experiences to date, and find a partner that fully commits so their drugs do get the level of investment and promotion they deserve rather than being a back up plan.

A deal for 12 programmes, 4 P 8 I originated.

Co develop 4 globally with co-commercialisation in US and Europe

4 Innovent retains China, P gets ex-china commercialisation

4 P gets global rights

P pays $650m up front. Milestone payments $9.85bn

HCM needs to think big with ATTC.

Compoundingm I would agree that Feb27 is the usual target date for a new NDA approval. I am being optimistic that work was well underway on the stability testing under the BTD designation and the Priority review on the second NDA helps too.

Optimistic view - Earliest October

Quite happy - in 2026

Getting worried - if not approved by the FY reporting (historically end Feb/early March)

HCM rose in HK today when most biopharmas fell, so it seems the Frusica-2 approval was well received.

I would like to know how they market the combination therapy and the degree of coordination needed with Innovent sales agents.

28 academic papers are listed in todays RNS. The investigator instigated rarely go anywhere, although HCM is pursuing Surufatinib in PDAC which came from one of them.

BeOne notes 60 at the same meetings.

Cheers for the insight Jatw, its good to see Hutchmed continuing to strengthen partnerships (Innovent) maybe that will lead to a capital event to help unlock value, crazy how these funds can walk it down to almost cash levels.

From what I know the earliest possible approval for both ITP and Waiha is February 2027. They needed to do a stability test in conjunction with the re-submission and such a test usually has to run for 12 months.

Next big event with a semi-predictable timeline is the result of the Sovleplenib NDA for ITP.

There are two NDAs running. The ITP NDA was resubmitted in February 2026. Its breakthrough therapy designation allowed ongoing submission of data to the NMPA. There were concerns about the stability of the formulation and further data was supplied throughout 2025. Normally acceptance of the NDA would mean approval would follow after a year, however significant work has been performed over the two years since first submission.

The WAIHA NDA has priority review and was accepted at the end of April giving an indicative date of end October for this indication.

I am consolidating these two NDAs in my mind to think that the NMPA will progress them in parallel to report at the end of October which will allow discussion about NRDL inclusion for 2027. Peak sales in China are projected to be $200-350m. The market is getting more competitive, but the results announced by the Company suggest that patients experience chronic multi-year treatments across different therapies. Sovleplenib appears to have lower toxicity, is a tablet and has top tier effectiveness. Many customers will find their way to Sovleplenib across their treatment journey. Once approved it is likely a good candidate to find a global development and commercialisation partner.

The results of the Frusica-2 study provided compelling numbers to drive this approval.

Just under a year is par for a combination where both drugs are previously approved…..now Hutchmed and Innovent need to get the therapy into hospitals……(and on the NRDL list for 2027 to drive take up)….both drugs are sold at about $14k per annum on the NRDL and there may be 60K patients available pa with survival around 2 years which suggests quite a large market (additional 200m in time, but maybe only 20m in h2 26 before NRDL)

Okay, link blocked for some reason , here is the main page:

https://di.hkex.com.hk/di/NSSrchMethod.aspx?src=MAIN&lang=EN&in=1&

Select the top options 1. Search by listed corporation (stock code or name of the listed corporation)

it feels like market makers being overly aggressive, i think deutsche bank have a lot of control being the adr sponsor and market maker in hk.

its worth noting also that hk require disclosures of short positions by market makers, this would explain the usually large disclosure on the sfc web site which is pretty close to some of the deutsche bank filings here (link truncated):

********************bdz3arf7

box 18 shows both long and short positions, this is from last year but helps explain whats going on.

How long will it take for the market valuation to match the free cash holding in the bank? Good show management!

What are you aiming to buy?

More commentary on Bristol Myers Squibb deal..

“It’s a huge signal,” said Michael Baran, head of private investments at healthcare-focused hedge fund Affinity Asset Advisors and a former partner at Pfizer Ventures. He said U.S. drugmakers have partnered with Chinese companies to develop drugs before, including Amgen’s 2019 collaboration with BeOne.

But Bristol’s deal is significant because it is more reciprocal, he said. It raises the prospect that more U.S. drugmakers could increasingly carry out early drug development in China as they try to bring treatments to market more quickly, and that Chinese companies could start to become global powerhouses.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/15/bristol-myers-squibb-turns-to-chinas-hengrui-to-replenish-pipeline.html

Spire Heath-care bid received today

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/SPI/londons-spire-healthcare-gets-135-billion-buyout-proposal-from-toscafund-hsw8qcvs49op6b2.html

Plus Tate, just goes to show how under valued many of these listed companies are..

That should help hit forecasts for 2026, is it sufficient to trigger further milestone payments, think the last one was $20m for crossing $200m of sales back in 2024.

Takeda just released their FY numbers. Q4 revenues was on the softer side for Fruzaqla with 12,2bn JPY, bringing total revenues to 55,1bn JPY for their FY. (q1: 12,3bn / q2: 15bn / q3: 15,6bn / q4: 12,2bn).

But the outlook for FY26 is very positive with 72bn projected sales (+31%). That would translate into 460m USD.

Plus the deal sector is on the boil - helps with US China relations especially with Trump headed there this wk..

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceutical, China’s largest drug company by market capitalisation, has signed a global collaboration and licensing agreement with US pharmaceutical giant Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) worth up to US$15.2 billion.

Hengrui’s Hong Kong-traded shares climbed 5.3 per cent to HK$69.55 on Tuesday, while its Shenzhen stock rose 4.84 per cent to 56.11 yuan.

The deal adds credibility to China’s growing reputation for innovative drug development. Industry players, however, said the country still had some way to go before it gained a “genuine voice” in the global pharmaceutical industry.

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3353263/chinas-hengrui-seals-us152-billion-deal-us-pharmaceutical-giant-bms?

In other news, CKHH has agreed to sell out of Vodafonethree, one year after merger and well before the options to buy are enforceable. That takes CKHH (and its wider group) disposals close to £20bn this year.

They clearly have an appetite to sell assets at the moment…..will HCM be on the block as well or will they consider taking it private? Both are possible.

No Malt, have not seen anything…..I recall reading/hearing that AZ did not apply for NRDL inclusion for it so not surprised that it is not making the sales numbers improve. Definitely a valid question for Investor Relations, another good question being what approvals are being pursued based on SAVANNAH data, is it just Switzerland - and then how is it selling in Zurich.

As to the CEO position, we dont know, we have to believe the Board is working on it. We have to be careful what to wish for - is it someone to implement the existing strategy or is it someone to shake things up and perhaps spend a billion dollars (and what on?).

I feel the in house management is in the last chance saloon…..they are betting big on ATTC and to a lesser extent on Sovleplenib….If ATTC works, then the mcap could multiply several fold and then HCM can takeover other pharma, if it is less successful then I think CKHH should pass Hutchmed into a larger entity. Hunter or prey, I do think it is existential for them as a standalone business.

Has anyone seen any evidence that this combination is being actively marketed in China, the approval was 30 June 2025, yet the sales rate does not seem to have changed at all. Jatw- agree about failing to announce Sameta failure, I had noticed that it had disappeared from the last update and assumed the worst - poor. Seems strange that the CEO situation has not been clarified just underscores a sense of drift here, may be something happening "under the bonnet" - I live in hope! Adding zero to your SP in 10 years since the US listing is not a good look.

Ai has been mentioned by Hutchmed recently, food for thought perhaps:

Chinese biotech firms are striking big global deals as drug makers, but could artificial intelligence take them to the next level?

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3350421/chinas-biotech-firms-shift-gears-can-ai-floor-accelerator?module=spotlight&pgtype=section

Welcome indeed, reminder of commentary from March results, lots of optionality this year:

Dr Dan Eldar, Non-executive Chairman of HUTCHMED, said, "Our team's expertise in the science of creating novel medicines, enhanced by advanced AI tools, positions HUTCHMED as a leader in advancing new modalities. Leveraging this leadership, we actively continue to explore new technologies, assets and targets to complement our portfolio, ready to make good use of our strong balance sheet.

Our Business Development team has encountered interest from multinational pharmaceutical companies to cooperate on the development and launch of novel drug candidates with potential to become global market leaders.

Any such potential partnerships would further validate the scientific and commercial value of our new platforms, whilst allowing HUTCHMED to leverage the multinational partners' advantages regarding global development and marketing expertise to accelerate its novel medicines to address large unmet needs around the world.

This strategy has been successfully demonstrated with FRUZAQLA® and will be applied to our ATTC technology, which is expected to bear its first fruits this year.

And hopefully the data from both ESLIM studies and acceptance of the NDAs is sufficient to get the ball rolling on a global trial and a licensing deal!

Totally agree. After the initial disappointment a year back, this is a definite plus.

Todays news about the second NDA is welcome, particularly the priority review and Breakthrough Therapy designation.

Priority review usually means 6 months, with the ITP NDA already a few months in (and being a second submission), it is almost inconceivable that the NMPA will not complete them in parallel. Both are likely to get approval in October. While ITP is a competitive treatment area, it seems patients go through many courses of different therapies so HCM will get its turn on many.

A significant boost to revenue is possible in late 26 and developed in 27 before NRDL takes effect in 2028.

May 13th for the next Takeda reporting (their FY to March)

USD/JPY conversion rate has moved from approx 150 to 160 over the last year so the result will look better in JPY than in USD.

9m sales were JPY 42.9bn, last year FY sales were 48bn.

And in a note…..Orpathys sales of $7m….broadly in line with 2025 run rate….

Possibly uplift late in the year if the GC NDA is successful…but it is for a relatively small population of patients.

The AZ Q1 results today reported that the SAMETA study of Orpathys and Tagrisso in RCC did not meet its primary end point (progression free survival)…..of course it may meet other end points (eg Overall Survival)

Nothing from HCM….but looking back at the corporate presentation, SAMETA was removed from the validated late stage pipeline slide…..underhand burying the poor news like that.

Jatw, how about using your draft for several holders to send a letter to the chairman, it might carry a bit more weight if he receives several letters - we can add a line to say we are in touch via a forum hence the similarity ?

II don't think it can do any harm to jog his memory that Hutchmed is still around, but as mentioned organic growth is what the market seems to be valuing at the moment.

Maybe tweek it a bit and send to other major shareholders too, might resonate with them also ?

No AI assistance…..just years of experience following this group of companies.

That reads well Jatw, some thought has gone into that or maybe ChatGPT gave a helping hand too : )

Those points are well made, I would also add the recent press interest around CKHH's other divisions (below) perhaps something similar to at least acknowledge their ownership...

'CK Life Sciences, a unit of Li Ka-shing-backed CK Group, plans to bring its cancer vaccine candidates to mainland China through a “fast track” channel as Beijing moves to accelerate early-stage drug development.

“We are planning to run investigator-initiated trials [IITs], hopefully, in the next year,” CK Life Sciences’ vice-president and chief scientific officer Dr Melvin Toh Kean-meng said in a recent interview.'

That said, the biggest driver will be steady organic profitability, if they can secure a ATTC partner soon as indicated that may move the needle as it would underpin their technology at an earlier stage.

On a fundamental basis HCM looks cheap, cash plus their remaining stake puts NAV at $1.5b v market cap of £1.73b

China in general is emerging out of a difficult growth period with biotech very much front and centre, I don't think it would hurt if CKHH banged the drum a bit in this regard..

I find CKHH is outwardly a quiet organisation - looking at its IR and Media pages there is very little that does not have to be produced. I suspect they are not really interested in what the outside world thinks. In their presentations they talk about stable returns and HCM barely gets a mention.

I suspect that only a letter to the Chairman is likely to receive any attention…..and then what could you say to him….please consider any offers for your stake in the company? How are you driving value for CKHH shareholders by owning HCM? Please conduct a strategic review of your investment? Here is a first draft….

Dear Mr Victor Li

Thank you for your stewardship of CKHH and the recent efforts to increase market perceptions of the fair value of the Group. I have noted a number of transactions across each of the major divisions, but it is one of your smaller investments that I wanted to raise with you, HutchMed.

Hutchmed has been in existence for 20 years and has achieved significant results benefitting patients across the globe. During this time, CKHH has reduced its effective ownership from over 65% to around 38% and is requiring HCM to operate independently of the Group. HCM itself has experienced a number of disappointments and its valuation has fluctuated significantly over the last decade, but is significantly down from its highs. The latest management strategy to improve valuation is to promote its new Antibody Targetted Therapy Conjugate (ATTC) platform. This is creating some excitement but its commercial value is unproven.

I trust that you do periodically make a strategic review of this investment and would be open to a transaction that secures attractive returns for CKHH. My opinion is that the China biopharmaceutical sector is fragmented and will soon begin experiencing local M&A to create China champions. CKHH will need to determine what part HCM plays in any consolidation and there will be opportunities to grow or to sell. In addition, HCM carries significant cash and short term investments that would appear to be surplus to reasonable operating investment requirements and could be remitted to shareholders via dividend or share buy back, both of which may enhance the value to investors of the company.

I urge you to challenge HCM to improve shareholder value and to carry out a CKHH strategic review of the HCM investment. If the review finds that HCM meets the threshold to remain a long term investments of CKHH, I would like you to consider creating a health division within CKHH comprising the CK Life Sciences and HCM businesses. Improving the visibility of these businesses and demonstrating CKHH commitment to them can only help raise their status with investors.

This slipped my attention, but it appears that HCM no longer meets the eligibility criteria to be part of the AIM 100.

After reading the eligibility criteria, I think it is due to low volume in London. The eligibility seems to be to trade 0.25% of shares (on AIM) each month (10 of the past 12 months). That would be approx 2.1m per month or approx 100k per day. The average is only in the 20-30k range.

HCM was not eligible for lower IHT rates, so I am not sure this really makes much difference in terms of demand from investors….but it would be a reason for HCM to consider leaving AIM. They would be better off on the main board if they still want a London listing.

Asia now accounts for 24 per cent of all US investors’ foreign holdings – the highest share in over a decade

https://www.scmp.com/business/markets/article/3350332/us-investors-pour-hong-kong-china-equities-largest-quarterly-inflow-3-years?

We wait and see….I would not be surprised to see an ATTC deal for several products if they target the same therapy area (eg oncology/ immunology) as that is driven by one team/need in the acquiring company. it is just easier for both sides to do one deal….the seller shares more costs earlier and the buyer pays a lower upfront fee. Lilly has recently done such a deal with Innovent for multiple products.

I would agree AZ / Takeda have the relationships to be in pole position, but their need may not be as great as MSD/BMS….but there are plenty of others out there in the middle market.

I would assume it would be on a product by product basis rather than say the ATTC platform, that said all the pharmas seem to be hungry to acquire pipeline so who knows, existing partners like Takeda or Astra might be favourites..

Fruquintinib has launched into this messy situation

Each European healthcare system makes its own decision on price to be paid by the national system = delay for patients

US rewriting its Medicare system causes a pause in prescribing.

EU prices lower than US feedback into US pricing

The effects are always poor for the patient who is denied / deferred potential treatment.

And the politicians blame the greedy pharma companies (some are), but the real costs are in the govt / insurance industries that inflate costs all round.

I wonder who HCM will partner up with for Sovleplenib and ATTC?

Interesting chart comparisons further down page:

Pharmaceuticals

Trump policies, China’s biotech boom are ending Europe’s pharma powerhouse era

Published Sat, Apr 11 20261:54 AM EDT

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/11/trump-pharma-tariffs-mfn-china-europe-biotech-stocks.html

China healthcare stocks outgain Hong Kong market as Middle East roils global investments

Hang Seng Healthcare Index outpaces broader market as Akeso, Innovent, Hansoh provide refuge for global investors

https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3349635/china-healthcare-stocks-outgain-hong-kong-market-middle-east-roils-global-investments?

Yes - just asked the google search AI mode for those results. Not sure if it is complete, but it seems credible.

I think HCM is at risk of being left behind its direct comparators within China.

ATTC is the big hope….but there are a lot of next big things out there and already licenced out, so the number of potential partners is reducing.

The biggest obstacle to a company sale will be meeting the CKHH price expectation (maybe up to the 50HKD IPO price) so I think a merger of equals within China (with a revenue generating company that is well capitalised too) is more viable. Then use the cost savings in the pipeline and administration (which could be significant $200m) to start dividend payments, it would still be a growth company with excess capital but stronger and a better investment.

You asked Ai Jatw?

Yep, huge number of deals going through, surely the rabbit is a good contender with ATTC pipe line and cash on hand..

If another pharma wanted a gateway into the Chinese market Hutchmed might be a good option.

I asked what are the largest health related M&A deals in China from 2025/26.

The response is below. Interestingly while there is plenty of portfolio activity involving multinationals, there is little internal consolidation. That could change as Chinese biopharma become cash generative and no longer need to raise money, their thoughts will turn to what to do with it (and in the short term it is likely to be empire building rather than shareholder returns.

In 2025 and early 2026, the Chinese healthcare M&A and licensing landscape was dominated by record-breaking out-licensing deals to multinational corporations (MNCs), with oncology, antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), and metabolic diseases (GLP-1s) driving the largest transactions. China-originated innovation accounted for 40% of all in-licensed assets by global pharma in 2025.

Largest Health-Related Deals in 2025–2026

GSK / Hengrui Pharma (July 2025): The largest deal, featuring a $500m upfront payment and a total potential value of up to $12 billion. The agreement spans 12 oncology, immunology, and respiratory programs, including a PDE3/4 inhibitor.

Pfizer / 3SBio (May 2025): Pfizer committed up to $6 billion (including a record-setting $1.25 billion upfront payment) for ex-China rights to 3SBio’s PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody, SSGJ-707.

AstraZeneca / CSPC Pharmaceutical (June 2025): A major AI-driven drug discovery alliance valued at over $5 billion, focusing on preclinical cancer candidates.

Novartis / Argo Biopharmaceutical (Sept 2025): A deal potentially worth up to $5.36 billion ($160m upfront) for global rights (ex-greater China) to three cardiovascular pipeline assets.

AstraZeneca / Harbour BioMed (March 2025): An alliance valued at up to $4.575 billion for advanced cancer therapeutic candidates.

Verdiva Bio / Sciwind Biosciences (Jan 2025): A metabolic disease deal, with milestones potentially exceeding $2.4 billion for GLP-1 analogue ecnoglutide.

2025-2026 Key Trends in China Healthcare M&A

Surging Deal Value: China's out-licensing activity hit a record $135.6 billion in total deal value in 2025.

Dominance of ADCs and Oncology: Antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) and radiopharmaceuticals experienced more than 300% and 65% increases in transaction activity, respectively, between 2019 and 2025.

MNC Strategic Divestment: Multinationals are restructuring their portfolios in China, with companies like Roche transferring mature products to local investors (e.g., the acquisition of Rocephin rights by Hasten).

High Upfront Payments: The average upfront payments for Chinese assets hit a record $7 billion in 2025, highlighting the urgency of MNCs to replenish their pipelines.

Regulatory Changes: Despite geopolitical tensions, 2025 saw a 79% increase in outbound transaction values within the Chinese healthcare sector.

The momentum continued into 2026, with an estimated $140-160B in global M&A deal value expected as big pharma seeks to diversify pipelines before the 203

I think China is doing okay too, property market is showing signs of recovery in pockets which was a long term drag on economy.

The notion that regulators are getting behind home grown companies also feels like a positive, hopefully draws a line under the regulatory issues from last year.

HCM currently up 3.5% in HK, but that trails the other Biotechs I follow that are between 6% and 11% up.

Fear of Missing Out is greater that Fear of Losing Everything it would seem.

Movement is attributed to optimism about the Iran war and China getting some ships through….no specific sector news.

Expect mid 220s in London today and then it may depend on what Trump says in his address to the nation.

Novartis shells out $2 billion for immunology biotech Excellergy, in second multi-billion dollar deal in a week

Published Fri, Mar 27 20267:43 AM EDT

> Novartis’ acquisition of U.S.-based Excellergy will add an early-stage drug candidate Exl-111 to the company’s existing allergy portfolio.

> It comes just a week after Novartis announced it is acquiring Synnovation subsidiary Pikavation Therapeutics for up to $3 billion to secure the rights to an experimental breast cancer drug.

> By the turn of the decade, pharma companies risk losing hundreds of billions in revenue as branded drugs get exposed to generic competition.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/27/novartis-nvs-stock-excellergy-buy-biotech-deal.html

Pharma giant Merck is buying U.S. biotech firm Terns Pharmaceuticals for $6.7 billion, the company said Wednesday.

This is the third multibillion-dollar acquisition for Merck over the past year as the company looks to bulk up its portfolio ahead of its best-selling cancer drug Keytruda losing patent protection in 2028.

Merck will acquire Terns for $53 per share in cash for an equity value of about $6.7 billion. That marks a 6% premium to Tuesday’s closing price, according to CNBC’s calculations. The deal is expected to close in the second quarter.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/25/merck-buy-terns-pharmaceuticals-mrk-stock-boost-cancer-pipeline.html

Big Pharma is very willing to buy into early stage assets and new technologies.

There does seem to be a shift towards earlier stage, less mature products with lower upfront costs but higher development costs. A good deal for both sides balances out the risk/rewards fairly……just based on past deals…

AZ got control of Savolitinib early, but have seemingly preferred other products.

Eli Lilly gave up control of Fruquintinib in favour of partnering with Innovent

Takeda seems to have a decent deal buying a proven product that will generate significant margin for them.

The Epizyme/Ipsen deal for Tazverik is now a write off

Based on the above HCMs track record is very mixed when it comes to doing deals.

Let’s hope they get good partners for ATTC and their heme portfolio.

AstraZeneca said it would establish drug manufacturing facilities in Guangzhou and Shanghai as well as a separate innovation centre in Shanghai, joining a group of foreign players building new plants in China amid geopolitical tensions.

The moves are part of a US$15 billion commitment the British firm pledged to make in the world’s second-largest drug market through 2030, unveiled during UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to Beijing in January.

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3347266/global-drug-giants-double-down-china-amid-trend-build-self-reliant-supply-chains?