Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I am no legal expert but I would have thought there must be legal rights to recovery or else why did the KRG eventually cough 2.4 billion if they could get away with not paying?!
Winning the case is one thing, getting paid another. Who enforces that the payment is made?
IMO there is a good chance of Genel being successful in its claim against the $1.4 billion they spent on the fields as the KRG lost its case in 2017 with UAE-based Dana Gas and its partners with a final settlement of $2.24 billion. At the time, folk said they wouldn’t pay up because they couldn’t afford to pay their teachers and army. but they coughed up rather than go back to court
Besides the Jefferies upgrade to buy (tp 100p) and them “seeing re-opening risk as over-sold, and a solid balance sheet with net cash to remain above $100m throughout 2024 supported by local sales, even if exports do not restart." Key Insights from Simply Wall St suggests Genel is potentially 32% undervalued;
“Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Genel Energy fair value estimate is UK£1.24 Current share price of UK£0.84 suggests Genel Energy is potentially 32% undervaluedOur fair value estimate is 28% higher than Genel Energy's analyst price target of US$0.97price”
It will be enforceable under English law, Kurdistan is recognized as a legal entity. within Iraq,
it will put further restraints on exports if they ever do come back on line, how many Assets do the Barzani family have tied up in Europe, a court order could grab those assets!!!!
Two questions spring to mind.
1) If there is no chance of KRG paying up, why proceed with the arbitration?
2) From KRG's perspective, if they can't / won't pay, why not just save legal costs and roll over now?
I suspect greater legal minds than ours have come to the conclusion that an award is enforceable, otherwise the whole process is a waste of time and money for both sides
Looks like it's heading back to 70's and staying within a rage until actual news...
Or Kurdistan
"Iraq has also deemed all oil companies active in Iraq to be operating illegally"
what a load of bowlocks....
Sorry - that should have read operating in KRG (not Iraq).
Mobiles and no glasses always a recipe for disaster 😲
The less aware amounts you may have missed the fact that KRG has spent years trying to be independent from Iraq (politically and financially).
Iraq has also deemed all oil companies active in Iraq to be operating illegally.
No way Iraq is going to pay KRG’s fines.
Go read any political news from the region over last decade.
Whats the point of wasting hundreds of thousands to win a case someone cant pay anyhow?
and why is genel up 20p almost in two days?!
One of my AFC Funds, the one in Iraq, has a peformance of 100% 2023 only. Yes, enough room for pay some arbitration money.
Guess when dana gas got paid for their arbitration they must have used monopoly money.
What a load off....
The gdp of Iraq gives it ample headroom to pay
Doesn’t matter whether it’s an out of court settlement or a in court settlement if the defendant can’t pay.
I’d say Genel’s case is a dead cert. However getting payment will be nigh on impossible. KRG haven’t had any income since pipeline closed. Can’t see Baghdad bailing then out!
Money is in Turks buying more, then opening the pipeline up - the arbitration is a sideshow.
Im pretty sure a while ago a turkish person bought in a large quantity around 110p so that hasnt exactly gone well
Hopefully the Turkish are looking at a take over bid
Bit of gossip on #GENL, please treat as such.
Told recent buyers of the stock have been Turkish in origin - they are generally better informed than the market!
Out of court settlement would be perfect timing right now
that would be $1.5 Billion compensation
For some reason GENL is looking very good and strong daily, someone is buying, but who and why ?
What do they know ?
The arbitration will go in GENL favour then the SP will rocket up
I see GENL's mkt cap now better than GKP's. about time
Roxi, I believe scheduled to run for two weeks (behind close doors) and results can take months.
Steffffi - that is a great question. Personally I've been in and out a few times and am about level at current SP (so value trap).
I think I would take a 50% bump and move on. I don't think the long term is huge and the world is just getting worse (disproportionately so in the ME) but I thought the value was there