The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Yet another 52 week low hit today.
Under performance compared to GKP is unbelievable right now
GLA
LOTM
I also suspect buying in the background and IMO we are way undervalued. The average closing price for the 4 weeks prior to the Iraq KRG meeting that caused shares to rise to 93p was 83.2p for Genel (this 4 weeks also included the 3 week close period before our Trading&Ops report).
The same 4 weekly average for GKP prior to the Iraq KRG meeting was 119.71p
Following lack of progress on the pipeline this week GKPs has pulled back from its highs to an average closing price of 128.88 over the last week, but still notably higher than before the meeting. Whereas Genel's average close price over the past week was only 74.7p, way lower than the 83.2p before the meeting!
That is in spite of directors buying 2,976,747 at 83p and 107,000 at 85.77p just before the close perod and a recent broker coverage starting with a 'hold' and price target of 95 pence as posted by #LOTM-13 .
Although Genel is heavily exposed to Iraq, lets not forget, it does have other “irons in the fire” in Somaliland and a farm-out in Morocco.
Apologies if already posted but I don't recall seeing Malcy's(oil analyst Malcom Graham-Wood) comments, for what its worth, on the Marrakesh Oil and Gas Summit held at the end of October ;
“Genel has highly prospective offshore acreage and is committed to farming-out some of its project, attending the Summit and with excellent presentations would have clearly benefited from being here, they have undoubtedly drummed up further interest in front of a very large, sophisticated international audience.
Genel were well represented in Marrakesh, Gavin Elliot, Exploration geologist gave a case study entitled ‘New data, new plays and new ideas in a proven petroleum province; Lagzira, offshore Morocco. At the following panel discussion, his colleague Mike Hohbein, Asset Manager Africa, Genel spoke on the ‘Particularities of Moroccan subsurface and the opportunities for collaboration with international partners on research and development of new exploration technologies’.”
It was a closing auction and got settled though so shares changed hands at that price ....I do think the only person who would be soaking up that kind of sell is the director who was buying...is this being taken over?
3m sell was an UT so not an actual sell
They have been filling that for days, the algo was filling it...fund sell imo..TR1 to follow presumably, anticipating more delays perhaps but odd they lost their nerve now
A 3.2m sell at 72p didn't help!!
52 week low the day before a meeting on restarting oil flow...?
Genel getting trashed, GKP up go figure !
Anyway I bought another 10K at 72.25p but trades doesn't appear on LSE (so far at least from 9:36)
Bots will probably get tanked later, seen it before we might even end up on the day !
GLA
LOTM
5% down on about £100k sold..0.05% of market cap...by algos the day before the meeting to discuss a deal..erm yeah, good one...markets way to thinly traded, shorters just running a mock
The bond tender was at £93...that is not a distressed price. Directors buying, arbitration hearing in Feb with potential to win ruling for damages in excess of mcap...the meeting this Friday could rerate this above a £1 imo as it will become clear if there is a deal to be done
Bob
Fortune favours the Brave. Good luck Pal - I hope they manage to break the stalemate soon.
Hopefully a deal is sorted soon as I'm pretty loaded up on both GKP and Genl and will top up even further when I get some more cash.
Good luck all.
Bob
Manage to top up and get two buy orders at 74.74 and 74.78 £5k each :)
Happy days at this price, cant believe how cheap these are at the moment.
Cheers,
Bob
SHAFAQ NEWS
Shafaq News / Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani discussed on Wednesday cooperation between Iraq and Turkey in the energy sector, avenues for its development, and deliberated on resuming the 19th session of the Joint Economic Committee's meetings. They also continued discussions on Iraq's oil exports through the Turkish port of Ceyhan.
During the meeting with the Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, Alparslan Bayraktar, Al-Sudani affirmed the government's readiness to find a solution to resume oil exports.
This solution, as stated by Iraq, should be within the framework of fair resolutions and adhere to the constitution in addressing various issues concerning neighboring countries.
What is the tawke depletion rate like, how many years production is left? I am not sure prices received for local sales can cover capex indefinitely..but it's far better than nowt. I had mistakenly thought that recovery by DNO was a quarter not a month ..thanks for that info. the Bina Biwa arbitration hearing could add a chunk to amounts owed to Genel, I was elsewhere when the cancelled that contract but it is a very odd one...feel like with the arb and fact Genel are not operator on tawke and talk of looking for assets elsewhere whether Genel are out of favour in Kurdistan with powers that be.
Hi Thunder2040,
DNO recovered $8M of there outstanding amount $300M from the forward sale of oil in October & production only started to ramp-up mid month. So they maybe on track to recover @ $12M+ for November.
Now I know its a tiny fraction of what's due to them & it would take @ 2 years at that sort of rate to recover the overdue amounts as well as the cash due for the current month, but its a reasonable start.
Genel confirmed on the conference call that they will have recovered a similar pro-rata amount of there outstanding balance of $110m as well ( @ $2.75M for October on the 75/25 ownership split) & so they will likely recover another @$4M for November.
LOTM
Looking good here this morning..not.
If they pull their finger out in negotiations and do a deal and convert the production sharing contract to profit share agreement we should be off to the races...but some very impatient sellers out there today...I also wonder if we will ever see the amounts owed for previous oil supplied
Hi Roxi,
What you've probably not noticed is the following ..........
The divergence between Genel & GKP is stark.
Virtually everyday Genel's buy volume outweigh's the sell volume significantly & the closing auction happens close to or above the offer price.
GKP on the other hand has more sales volume than buy volume & the closing auction occurs at or below the bid price.
This has been going on for the last 2 weeks really & yet somehow GKP's share price is out performing Genel's over that period now!
Something has to change soon.
Oh & there's a shortage of Genel stock around because try buying when the price is moving & they want a hefty premium even for 5,000 shares.
LOTM
Back in the buying range, great value currently, imo
A really interesting article...... well worth reading
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPEC-Said-To-Consider-Additional-1-Million-Bpd-Output-Cut.html
Going by that, its going to do the complete opposite & it seems Biden has been messing with something he shouldn't have been.
LOTM
No problem Autonomy1
Yes the pipeline has been close since March.
They had to get the internal politics sorted out 1st of all between Baghdad & the KRC. That has taken quite a bit of time. Baghdad had to show the KRG that it held all the trump cards, but at the same time get them onboard with the way the whole country is going to be run in future.
I think the 3 days comment was very optimistic to say the least, but at the same time it was a very public statement by those at the highest level telling those below them that they want this sorted out as a matter of urgency.
So now no-one is any doubt as to what is required.
They just need to find the right "addendums" to make it work for everyone.
You have to bear in mind that the existing Baghdad oil & gas contracts are completely different to the ones the KRG issued and as such, they have to alter the KRG ones so that they work for the APIKUR (our group) the KRG & Baghdad so that they don't disadvantage all the other IOC working in the rest of Iraq otherwise they'll open up a massive can of worms for themselves.
No good getting the KRG bit fixed to find other IOC's shutting down production or refusing to drill new wells etc until they get similar terms to APIKUR members.
Hopefully not to much longer to wait ....
LOTM
Thanks for the info
It just seems that to me that they are finding any excuse not to open it.What is it about 9 months of closure.Why couldnt the contracts have been sorted out in the summer so that when Turkey was ready to open it again everything was ready to go
Last week it was going to open in 3 days now i read that Ioc have only met with Baghdad once so it will drag on for more weeks until the contracts/debt is sorted
Hi Autonomy1,
I think your wrong about Baghdad. They have to pay the wages of all the KRG staff & that it quite a monthly sum. They also have to pay Turkey for the pipeline if there isn't a certain amount of oil flowing through it.
So by not having KR production they are forking out a lot of cash with nothing new to show for it. Get the KR oil flowing properly again & the income from it will cover most if not all of the above & probably gives them some money to distribute to other regions as well.
But your right about the contracts being a problem & this is where they need to find a solution & soon to get that oil & revenue flowing again.
LOTM
I just cant see a solution to the reopening of the pipeline,Baghdad are not not bothered if it opens or not and i cant see them paying the debt of the Krg to do so.The Krg need it open but have no money to pay the 1 billion that is owed and Ioc wont pump until they get the money owed.Baghdad want different contracts with the Ioc so its a real mess
Hi Mr.Spacetomato
I'm not someone who follows "technicals & charts"
Yes the sharp drop in crude prices recently has surprised me, but there again Biden is weak & past it. Otherwise Iran & Russia wouldn't be exporting like they are now.
Saudi's apparently need around $85 to balance there hefty budgets, so I'd expect them to cut production further, others may join in.
This of course causes a problem further down the road when crude consumption picks back up, not enough oil above ground in storage, which will then cause prices to spike yet again.
All of that of course assumes things in the Middle East don't get any worse, if they do then who knows what's going to happen.
LOTM