The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Yesterday Iraq and Turkey agreed for Turkey to receive oil resources as compensation for its involvement in the construction projects. Hope the oil transferred won’t count as being part of Iraq’s Opec quota!
https://shafaq.com/en/Iraq/Iraq-to-finance-joint-development-projects-with-Turkiye-from-the-Oil-Fund-spokesperson
Istaponzi, Please refrain from making such comments without backing them up. I couldn't find anything in the Genel results stating that they don't see the pipeline opening this year.I understand one can be reported for spreading such untruths and a ban after being reported 5 times.
“As we reshaped our business in 2023, we have continued our search for the right opportunity to integrate within Genel. There remain opportunities out there that fit our criteria, and we are confident that we will find the correct deal.”
I wonder if they already have something in their sights. If they can’t spend it, we may get dividends like in the past. Meanwhile outgoings are covered, cash in the bank and looking forward to the reopening of the pipeline and the results of our arbitration claim.
I would have loved to have seen a farm out in Morocco and the start of drilling in Somaliland.
#itsaponzi a 90s close, I doubt it, given good results under extremely challenging circumstances,. broker rating 165p following the RNS (without ITP open) and potentially a lot of good news in the pipeline! Yesterday’s SP was taken down to close at 104.80p with what appears to be 117k worth of buys after the close.
I am happy with the results given the extremely challenging circumstances. Some folk hoped for a divi or buyback but without future clarity it is good and prudent management to withhold cash for now. The SP is being punished with a 4p drop at the moment. No doubt, If there had been a 4p dividend the SP would have shot up for a short while before investors saying a distribution was irresponsible. Let’s see how the market values GKP at the end of the day, after the analysts & investors presentation at 10am.
I think we are nearing the end game in negotiations over the opening of the pipeline, so everything to play for with Erdogan's visit only weeks away.
According to Malky (oil analyst Malcom Graham-Wood) on today's RNS from Genel;
“Genel have issued their updated P2 reserves, which fell from 92.2m barrels at the end of 2022 to 88,9m barrels at the end of last year. This takes into account 4.5m b’s of production and the stripping out of the Sarta reserves, showing that there is still upside at the Tawke PSC, which is generating cash even in the current local sales environment.
Genel therefore remains in a very strong position, well funded and still looking for opportunities to diversify the portfolio.”
Today’s rising oil price should help!
Sorry the title of my last post should have read
"Tawke has largely recovered from the March 2023 pipeline shut down"
I am looking forward to Genel’s HY results as costs have been cut and local sales are good.
Any news on Somaliland and the Morocco Farm Out would be a bonus.
Today DNO reported on fields where we also have an interest;.
“At yearend, gross production from the DNO operated Tawke license (75% ) in Kurdistan had largely recovered from the March 2023 export pipeline shutdown and was averaging 80,000 boepd. Post pipeline shutdown, the Company’s net entitlement share has been sold at prices in the low-to-mid USD 30s per barrel on a cash and carry basis and transported by traders by road tanker or pipeline to local refineries. Concurrently, Tawke license operational spend was cut by some 65 percent from pre-pipeline shutdown levels as drilling activity was curtailed and staffing levels reduced.”
Following the RNS Canaccord Genuity reiterated their Speculative Buy and TP of 180.00p
Although some think our “sludge” is not heavy enough, GKP see strong local market demand as they enter March and are looking to increase sales above current levels.
IMO there is a good chance of Genel being successful in its claim against the $1.4 billion they spent on the fields as the KRG lost its case in 2017 with UAE-based Dana Gas and its partners with a final settlement of $2.24 billion. At the time, folk said they wouldn’t pay up because they couldn’t afford to pay their teachers and army. but they coughed up rather than go back to court
Besides the Jefferies upgrade to buy (tp 100p) and them “seeing re-opening risk as over-sold, and a solid balance sheet with net cash to remain above $100m throughout 2024 supported by local sales, even if exports do not restart." Key Insights from Simply Wall St suggests Genel is potentially 32% undervalued;
“Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Genel Energy fair value estimate is UK£1.24 Current share price of UK£0.84 suggests Genel Energy is potentially 32% undervaluedOur fair value estimate is 28% higher than Genel Energy's analyst price target of US$0.97price”
I also suspect buying in the background and IMO we are way undervalued. The average closing price for the 4 weeks prior to the Iraq KRG meeting that caused shares to rise to 93p was 83.2p for Genel (this 4 weeks also included the 3 week close period before our Trading&Ops report).
The same 4 weekly average for GKP prior to the Iraq KRG meeting was 119.71p
Following lack of progress on the pipeline this week GKPs has pulled back from its highs to an average closing price of 128.88 over the last week, but still notably higher than before the meeting. Whereas Genel's average close price over the past week was only 74.7p, way lower than the 83.2p before the meeting!
That is in spite of directors buying 2,976,747 at 83p and 107,000 at 85.77p just before the close perod and a recent broker coverage starting with a 'hold' and price target of 95 pence as posted by #LOTM-13 .
Although Genel is heavily exposed to Iraq, lets not forget, it does have other “irons in the fire” in Somaliland and a farm-out in Morocco.
Apologies if already posted but I don't recall seeing Malcy's(oil analyst Malcom Graham-Wood) comments, for what its worth, on the Marrakesh Oil and Gas Summit held at the end of October ;
“Genel has highly prospective offshore acreage and is committed to farming-out some of its project, attending the Summit and with excellent presentations would have clearly benefited from being here, they have undoubtedly drummed up further interest in front of a very large, sophisticated international audience.
Genel were well represented in Marrakesh, Gavin Elliot, Exploration geologist gave a case study entitled ‘New data, new plays and new ideas in a proven petroleum province; Lagzira, offshore Morocco. At the following panel discussion, his colleague Mike Hohbein, Asset Manager Africa, Genel spoke on the ‘Particularities of Moroccan subsurface and the opportunities for collaboration with international partners on research and development of new exploration technologies’.”
I have about 1m spread across Sipps & Isa's. Never posted here before but would like to take the opportunity to thank all the dedicated & knowledgeable poster on this board, in particular @hydrogen who made me aware of GGP on the GENL board that I also use to look at. Underwater on GGP, but I believe the prospects for the future are very good. Should there be a substantial fall I would risk using part of my overdraft facility to slam a further £20k's worth into an Isa
GLA
1st and 2nd resistance levels smashed! 3rd still in play! For what its worth as these levels are calculated as of close of market yesterday and do not really include last nights news or the prospect of more news today or on Monday which could come.
3rd Resistance Point 74.667
2nd Resistance Point 68.333
1st Resistance Point 64.667
Last Price 68.460
1st Support Level 54.667
2nd Support Level 48.333
3rd Support Level 44.667
1st Resistance gone will 57.94 be next or even 60.58 ?!!
3rd Resistance Point
60.573
2nd Resistance Point
57.937
1st Resistance Point
55.718
Closing Price
53.500
1st Support Level
50.863
2nd Support Level
48.227
3rd Support Level
46.008