Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Arbitration will be underway soon.
Around £1.5B in cash or an asset with an NPV worth over 10X that.
Given the case structure and the monies and commitment given by Genel, it will likely be one or the other.
The FDP for the gas assets was for start-up rates of 0.75BCF a day or 273BCF a year.
Mindblowing numbers.
Leveitahn in Israel produced 2.2BCF/d in 2022 and earned $ 2.3 B in revenues.
Genel's gas assets are on-shore and significantly cheaper to operate.
Will say something about genel share price - when that pipeline does reopen - this will bag an instant nice gain - best to keep watching if it drifts lower - in fact, the lower the better right now
Probably some city boys thinking theyve heard something and getting in quick, then dumping the 10p approx rise - then losing interest again
I simply don't understand what drove the share price up 1st thing Monday & not GKP's - if it wasn't director buying which it clearly isn't given there's been no RNS to say so. Or why the buying continued through the day & then today it just drop's back as if nothing had happened basically.
The only other possible thought I had was it was something to do with the court case - maybe the KRG not even contesting it now, but no news has broken since to suggest that was the case.
As for APIKUR appealing to the US Government for help to get the pipeline restarted ( following last weeks meeting) suggests desperation is starting to set in for those IOC who aren't as fortunate as GENEL with regard to production & local sales & are just burning through cash day by day.
I'm not sure the Iraqi government will take too kindly to that sort of intervention given the political situation in the middle east & about to get worse once the USA responds to the weekend attack.
Not where we want to be that's for sure right now.
LOTM
Doesnt really feel like there are very close still to the pipeline opening
What farce, couldve sold yestersday and bought it all back up again :)
I'm in the same boat jc_123. Paid over 10 quid for my first tranche of shares and it's been all down hill ever since.
My thoughts are that neither the KRG (nor FGI for that matter) need cough up much money should they lose the arbitration case, certainly not the $1.4Bn being discussed. All they need do is restore the previous situation and so allow Genel to develop the fields. I'm not sure how that would work out exactly as Genel probably couldn't do that by themselves, but at least they would regain the right to do so, with the KRG keeping to their side of the original contract. That might seem simplistic but, to me at least, ofers a way out for everyone. Let's hope so!
Anyone got an idea of what the effect would be on Genel if that $20.60/b figure was implemented?
Cheers.
Personally I think that GENL has a Leak of good news after yesterday rise, coz the SP went up as soon as the market opened
Hopefully another good day here
In brief,
The case is against the KRG & Iraqi government.
The new Oil & Gas Law will bring all assets under Baghdad.
Baghdad is now desperate for gas; the new bid round 6 is only for gas assets. To exacerbate this condition, Iran just cut off gas supplies to Iraq.
After Dana Gas won their case, they were awarded a large gas license to develop by Bagdad with an Iraqi contract.
Considering Bagdad is in significant need of gas, and the Genel gas fields are the biggest in the region (And up there worldwide), they will need all outstanding legal claims cleared to be developed.
These fields are worth £10's Billions. 15TSCF onshore is off the scale.
I've been in this share for longer than I care to admit, and bottom drawered it when the pipeline shut thinking that I'll stay invested and hold out for Somaliland and the arbitration case. The worry for me re arbitration is how on earth KRG will be able to cough up if they lose. When Dana won their case in 2017, KRGs finances were more robust than now and they had the luxury of direct oil revenues, which they no longer have. I wonder if there's any way the responsibility for paying any potential future claim could end up in the lap of the Iraqi government?
It's not sure they're the amounts looked at, but going through the history, Genel had worked hard and took serious risks buying, proving-up and developing the licence ($1.4B cash costs) to have then the KRG basically turn around and take it off them after a more significant than expected discovery. Really bad form on the KRG's part.
They did the same to Dana around the same time over another gas field.
Decimated Genel.
They presented to institutions at Pareto E&P.
https://x.com/GenelEnergyplc/status/1751910212930248811?s=20
The case is still well under most people's radar, people will slowly catch on after the presentation and some research. For perspective, the gas fields are nearly the size of Leviathan in Israel - The one that allowed Israel to basically exist. But onshore. 🤯
Genel costs at break-even = Wait for ITP restart and legitimacy = Greater than 2X return and then a running 20% dividend yield.
Or
Court case = 7X - 19X
Mutually exclusive events.
Great rise in the SP today, long may it conitnue!!!!!
GKP are moving up now.
Hmm I wonder if there is director buying going on for it to open up so much in price while GKP virtually hadn't moved.
LOTM
Looks to me like people are discovering about the case.
Until the last presentation the company has been very quite about amounts and the ITP shut down has overshadowed it.
It's a 19 fold return off the Enterprise Value.
Nice rise today
A few months normally jc_123
https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/middle-east/exploration-production-middle-east/546439/local-sales-cost-cutting-and-patience-kurdistan-producers-hang-on/
“One catalyst identified by Genel is an arbitration case it is pursuing in London against the KRG, on the Miran and Bina Bawi licences. “Our claim is that the cancellation … was repudiatory and because of that we’ve suffered significant losses. We’ve spent $1.4 billion of cash acquiring and investing in these licences.”
I realise the answer to this question may be "how long is a piece of string?", but does anyone have an educated guess as to how long the arbitration process could take? ie until a judgement is issued. Are we talking weeks or months?
News from our operator DNO,
DNO: HASN'T BEEN ASKED TO CUT OIL OUTPUT IN IRAQ KURDISH REGION
DNO: KURDISH GOVT IS ENCOURAGING COMPANY TO BOOST OIL OUTPUT
Good to see them confirm the $1.4B costs regarding the arbitration case. I think it's been overlooked by the market due to the pipeline shutdown. Dana Gas were successful.
Soon be into February and we hopefully will start a news flow rich period, should get Genel moving
I wasnt expecting much & wasnt disappointed. Admire fact that they have moved quickly to reshape the business, cut costs, & stregthen where they can. Did really well to switch to local sales & with the cost savings, they'll be covering costs come March. I really felt for Luke - one can sense his frustration that all of the catalysts listed rely on others & are very much out of their hands.
I have to say I'm on the disappointed side, I thought the cash position would be better than it is.
The cash-flow margin is clearly smaller than you think it is. Yes I know they had the bond interest to pay as well during that quarter.
Pipeline opening or the size of the award are the 2 possible catalyst's for the share price to increase substantially.
GLA
LOTM