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Last post: NorfolkRhapsody, 14 Jun 2024 21:43
After buying low in 2020 and holding until the beginning of May I'm now out until there is political policy clarity going forwards but I'll be back in if it falls much further.
I'll miss you airfix ... (not)
First message on these boards, so hellow all!
I sold out the moment I heard the election. Labour have expressed concerns around drax burning wood pellets. The Drax power plant subsidies are due to end 2027 iirc and they were in the late stages of getting an extention through beyond 2030 when the election was called. Drax have sucessfully diverserfied away from the core power station, however the plant and the subsidies sill make up a huge amount of revenue, so if labour were not to renew them it would take a severe hit to the bottom line. This was my reason for selling, shame as I was realy positive following the last results+presentation.
If the subsidies got extended then i'd be a buy.
I think it is in part a reaction to the Nat Grid rights issue and concern that Drax will be next. The govt didn't seem keen on funding the approved BECCS scheme, and noone knows what Labour's Great British Energy company will involve, though I would have thought Rhubarb rather than beetroot the more appropriate term to describe their energy policy. It is also, I think, probably an easy share to short. I see another fund is shorting it which I suppose is extra income for the institutions holding for the long term. Could be an interesting few months ahead. Time to put the tin hat on and sit it out.
Started: Badgernator, 23 May 2024 17:03
Last post: effix03, 24 May 2024 20:30
Labour did clearly state they want to close drax and demolish the cooling towers and a chimney. Then they will plant beetroot on the site in its place.
I've been thinking exactly the same. Anybody able to explain?
There was always going to be an election this year and labour were always bound to win it. I don’t know how setting the date is worth 8%.
Started: kenj, 14 Mar 2024 12:35
Last post: kenj, 14 Mar 2024 12:36
But no problem according to DRAX ???
https://www.ft.com/content/8af60bfa-f661-43e8-9096-e84b3884040d
"One of the world’s biggest producers of wood pellets sold to power utilities has filed for US bankruptcy, a downfall for a business seen by its backers as an alternative energy source to oil and gas."
"Enviva was flying high only two years ago as power plants from the UK to Japan started converting from coal to wood pellets as a source of fuel. Investors gave the company a market capitalisation of $6bn at its peak."
"But to expand production, the US company issued a large amount of debt as the cost of running its wood pellet processing plants increased. Additionally, a commodity trade Enviva entered into backfired when energy prices started to drop in the winter of 2022 to 2023, said Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James."
"Drax, which buys wood pellets from Enviva and is listed as a creditor, said it was not expecting any interruption due to Enviva’s bankruptcy filing. It will have “no material impact” on Drax, the company said in a statement to the Financial Times."
Started: effix03, 28 Feb 2024 10:19
Last post: Deadly4U, 29 Feb 2024 16:06
EU doesn't care about the environment, it only cares about being in charge
"A study of Norwegian forests discovered that “increasing the use of wood from a boreal forest to replace coal in power stations will create a carbon debt that will only be repaid after almost two centuries of regrowth.”
The Study- https://www.researchgate.net/publication/227584033_Harvesting_in_boreal_forests_and_the_biofuel_carbon_debt
Burning wood is classed as a renewable energy source by the eu
DRX will get shot by environmentalists, importing ancient timber from Canada and burning it to produce energy, almost like we're still in the stone ages. Ironic that the environmental idiots caused this lunacy by stopping new nuclear plants from coming online, when nuclear is the best form of base power load and has zero emissions :)
I bought last week , so very pleased atm. SP seemed cheap and worth a punt GLTA
I think we must have bought at around the same time OWLS - I am quite pleased with an 80% price gain and the dividends that trickle through too.
Started: effix03, 7 Feb 2024 13:21
Last post: SuccesstotheBrave, 15 Feb 2024 19:55
I bought in today as I believe the sp is oversold and will head back over 500p in the short term
Is there anybody else out there who didn't get out or isn't shorting this dog share?
Started: TheSynnerMan, 26 Jan 2024 13:11
Last post: TheSynnerMan, 26 Jan 2024 13:11
Https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/power-plant-operator-drax-launch-carbon-removal-business-2024-01-25/
British power plant operator Drax (DRX.L), opens new tab plans to establish an independent business focused on becoming the global leader in delivering large-scale and high-integrity carbon removal.
The new entity will be launched this year and be operationally separate within the Drax Group and headquartered in Houston in the United States, Drax said.
It will be led by Laurie Fitzmaurice, a senior energy infrastructure expert with nearly 30 years of experience in business development, most recently for Amazon Web Services.
"The creation of this business brings to life years of hard work by many outstanding people across our group and marks another step in Drax’s journey to enable a zero-carbon, lower-cost energy future," said Drax Group CEO Will Gardiner.
"Our recent success is grounded in providing secure, renewable energy and our future is focused on playing a critical role in tackling climate change through the generation of secure, renewable power and the large-scale removal of carbon dioxide."
Britain last year laid out plans to boost energy security and independence by investing in efforts to move towards cleaner, more affordable energy sources, including projects to capture and store carbon dioxide.
Last week Drax said the government had approved its planning application to convert two biomass units at its Drax plant to use carbon removal technology known as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).
Started: Ronacin, 24 Jan 2024 08:00
Last post: TheSynnerMan, 24 Jan 2024 13:10
Spot on.
I remember the EDF CEO saying in 2007 that we'd all be eating our Christmas Turkeys cooked with Nuclear Power in Dec 2017.
7 years later, we're still waiting and it's likely to be 7 more (if we're lucky).
Biomass = security, better value than nuclear and more reliable than wind and solar. On top of that you have the recent news from the Gov about capturing carbon too.
Hinkley Point C could be delayed to 2031 and cost up to £35bn, said EDF last night (Bloomberg). The owner of Hinkley Point C has blamed inflation, Covid and Brexit as it announced the nuclear power plant project could be delayed by a further four years, and cost £2.3bn more
That's a delay of 3.2GW of low carbon capacity that's expected to generate 20-25TWh, it potentially puts pressure on the government to guarantee a bridging mechanism for biomass -in my opinion.
Started: tedmak, 18 Jan 2024 13:49
Last post: tedmak, 18 Jan 2024 13:49
I ama. fan of the company and the strategy but I am fed up with the noise around the business environment.
This latest consolation came out this morning and company would (I assume) have head the heads up last night.
Why has a formal response only come out just before midday.
We dont know when the decision will be made nor by which minister..
It is very frustrating as the UK electricity system cannot function without Drax but the wider political environment gives little confidence/visibility.
In summary - I am on the fence.
Started: TheSynnerMan, 8 Jan 2024 19:50
Last post: effix03, 18 Jan 2024 11:56
Absolutely, haha! I'm moving under the bridge. With the share price scraping the bottom of the range even after this meaningless 'announcement' I may yet to reconsider though. What a joke!
...Assuming he's not living in a caravan already:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1037736/drax-to-win-approval-for-net-zero-carbon-capture-plan-report-1037736.html
Started: effix03, 27 Sep 2023 18:25
Last post: OWLS, 1 Jan 2024 14:57
Up 16% in the last 2 months, very nice
Only one fool on here I'm afraid. It's poor old deluded Airfix.
Hehe. Absolutely. Because I missed a fall from c. 700 and shorted right at the bottom of 400 you jester -)
Airfix shorts under water again
@schjmh, and what about it? It was a pretty good move back then, right?
If someone makes an incorrect statment it is only right that we correct them. And if they continue being foolish why not call them a fool ?
Do you think we could have more constructive comments on this and less personal abuse?
Or from 118 in March 20 to 440 now. Very impressive rise.
Absolute defenestration. Complete capitulation. From 830 in April '22 to 424 now. Impressive slide.
Started: Jensen2017, 26 Sep 2023 09:27
Last post: tedmak, 26 Sep 2023 12:44
There are a couple of aspects to this - political and technical/energy security.
The grid NEEDS Drax power station, It is well-located on the grid and a solid 2,4GW source of flexible power.
Other than Hinkley, the only new power bing constructed is inflexible. The biomass supply is secured by Drax so it will be needed going forward. The Just Stop Oil types who hate Drax will be ignored, as it is impractical.
Politically, looking at net zero and, more wider HS2, clarity on policy is all over the place. The sentiment is not good, but there is still currently a highly profitable business and there is no chance the current support mechanisms (CFD and ROC) would be withdrawn, as the government would sued and it would damage confidence in the regimes.
It is NOT red in the water. There is a chance of good returns but a probability of high volatility.
Really good comment, I agree. Thanks to Boris, the Govt is struggling to finish Hinckley, let alone start Sizewell, so the idea of letting go of 2GW+ is not insignificant ( I think it is just under 4GW max). Two concerns I have: use of LPG, and continuity of supply of biomass. I think on some days UK has used LPG to generate more than 60% of needs. With the govt rowing back on climate change measures, they could just say 'what the hell' let's just import more gas; secondly I would like the company to comment on resilience in their biomass supply chain. Drax has had mixed £ fortunes in the distant past, so definitely not one for a the faint hearted, or savers. Sub £4 this will look increasingly interesting but dependent on some very big decisions by govt and associated quangos (NAO and OFGEM).
It's a rollercoaster ride and one for the brave. My view is that the UK Gov is running out of options. Coal is gone and large thermal is struggling to make enough margin outside of peak running so it is difficult to see where the baseload generation is coming from in the future. Who is going to build anything other than OCGT, if even that? At-scale batteries are still a long way off, given required raw material quantities and processing output that needs to meet voracious global demand (UK will struggle to get a look-in). AR5 showed that wind is not getting cheaper in line with govt hopes and there is a big gap in capacity opening up towards the end of this decade. The supply chain cost increases that prevented wind providers from even bidding in to AR5 (and many AR4 bid winners from delivering their projects) will be felt globally so the, somewhat-inefficient-but-vaguely-plausible, approach of building over-capacity of wind to solve operating margin tightness is under threat. In the next 7 years, we now need to commission and build the equivalent to all the wind capacity we have ever built in the UK (or something like that). The point is that it is v unlikely we will even meet current build out targets. The govt simply cannot afford to let 2+ GW of firm capacity close down. It is now almost physically impossible to close the gap to a secure national electricity supply, even if they start today - which they won't. There is a huge amount of political risk (rightly) factored into the pricing of these shares given the degree of govt support and opposition from some very loud and persistent single-issue voices. I just think that soon, the UK govt at least, will have nowhere else to go...
Appear to be taking a hammering from all sides. What’s everyone’s thoughts good chance for a nice return or time to cash out?
Last post: spentout, 25 Sep 2023 15:52
If Canadian wildfires proved anything it is that forests need to be intensively managed. Biomass is unavoidable and has to be removed. Trees do nothing to reduce carbon. Importing biomass from Canada is better than importing coal from Australia and Brazil as used to be the case. With BECCS Drax will be a world leader. Thanks to politicians and treehuggers there are some big falls in the share price - can only mean one thing - big gains to come. As for 'being on public money' effix do you know how much nuclear waste costs the public purse every year, or why wind farms managed to produce cheap power?
Started: effix03, 22 Sep 2023 19:29
Last post: wyt3fr0g, 25 Sep 2023 13:13
Although it is far better than burning imported coal...
Burning Wood imported from Canadian forests is neither renewable, sustainable or desirable. Drax is living on UK Government Subsidies...
Power generation is critical national infrastructure, and Drax was a key part of the government's low carbon strategy until Rishi blew a huge hole in everything. Change of government will see sense return. Renewables are the future.
This dud has now fallen almost 50% from its peak after QE pump. Expect further falls. Share price will never recover meaningfully for the simple reason - this company has no future. Forever on public money support, the market has finally come to its senses. Finito.
Started: effix03, 4 Sep 2023 20:50
Last post: TuftedDuck, 21 Sep 2023 09:33
Ah but! the 400 ZONE is defined as 50 to 750 so tecknickly it hasn't actually gone through it yet. So, the daft twit (other vowels are available) is quite within his writes to stay.
You shouldn't even be here Airfix.
This was your post in Jan 21
"I can commit to leave this forum a very day it goes through 400p ZONE. It’s simply not gonna happen. Period."
Please do us all a favour and stick to your commitment, that's a good chap.
@synnerman, show me where I said I shorted at £2 or £3 you bag holder
effix… you said you shorted it at £2, then again at £3. you are an absolute clown. you’re blatantly just a skint, crusty student member of some pointless organisation like extinction rebellion that doesn’t even understand why we need working forests and biomass.
it’s pretty ******* obvious what the benefits are of biomass are… nao report seems a bit pointless. probably trying to justify their jobs.
@owls - who cares about £3 you schmuck. I’m already vastly in the money. Even if it goes to £4 or £4.5 I’ll have earned like a bandid.
Started: Jensen2017, 15 Sep 2023 16:25
Last post: Leapgrog, 17 Sep 2023 05:33
More like blown off a cliff
Buhahaha. Delicious!
Https://www.nao.org.uk/work-in-progress/the-governments-support-for-biomass/
Seems much ado. NAO does loads of reviews.
There is no chance of net zero without Drax, especially as the recent auctions has no offshore wind awards.
Fallen off a Cliff today anyone know why? (apart from effix, your opinion means nothing to me x)
Started: ripley94, 18 Aug 2023 23:32
Last post: ripley94, 22 Aug 2023 14:57
Made up cost of both mistakes with Co-Op delayed app compensation payment .
Yesterday at 564p attempting to place sale marker in trade plan.
Started: effix03, 27 Jul 2023 17:01
Last post: Jensen2017, 1 Aug 2023 09:13
Please expand on your wisdom effix and show everyone how clever you are :-)
In English please!
I love it. £120m wasted on buybacks and the share price stays in the doldrums -) Whose ideas this buyback was? -)
Started: Itsriskythat, 13 Jun 2023 08:08
Last post: Itsriskythat, 13 Jun 2023 08:08
Drax under scrutiny
https://www.energymonitor.ai/policy/just-transition/mississippi-regulator-accused-of-pollution-cover-up-at-drax-wood-pellet-mill/
https://www.dailyleader.com/2023/05/31/amite-biomass-parent-company-drax-responds-to-investigation/
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/may/29/drax-owned-wood-pellet-plant-in-us-broke-air-pollution-rules-amite-bioenergy-mississippi-emissions-limits
Started: effix03, 31 May 2023 18:05
Last post: Jensen2017, 4 Jun 2023 10:04
Haha this is why I don’t block you effix like everyone else has, you’re hilarious I love your pathetic banter ‘stupid’ reminds me of primary school
Maybe, but not as stupid as you.
You do realise that we can see your previous posts ?
-) Why would have I been shorting from 2. Are you stupid?
How is it working for you when you have been shorting from £2 ?
Working fantastic for me. How about you? Pounded over and over again with negative news every few weeks. They’re trying desparately to support diving share price. All in vain!
Started: Jensen2017, 23 May 2023 17:13
Last post: Jensen2017, 23 May 2023 17:13
Https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/opinion/columnists/drax-investment-in-the-us-raises-questions-over-the-governments-net-zero-approach-the-yorkshire-post-says-4154519 Wonder if the uk government will keep pandering to poorly informed activists or actual look to benefit and become a world leader as it’s constant lip service states
Started: Itsriskythat, 23 May 2023 07:30
Last post: Itsriskythat, 23 May 2023 07:30
Capital markets day is today. Looking good.
Started: spentout, 11 Apr 2023 21:29
Last post: spentout, 11 Apr 2023 21:29
Canadian Government, 'Made in Canada' budget 2023 very supportive of biomass as critical source of clean energy and creating opportunities for rural communities in British Columbia. Good to see, given the distorted garbage pedalled by halfwit journalists. Purely personal opinion of course. Look forward to the BBC setting the record straight after their slightly bias Panorama expose last year. Solid climb back in share price in recent days. For the LTH this will continue to be a good hold.
Started: effix03, 30 Mar 2023 18:23
Last post: NorfolkRhapsody, 1 Apr 2023 01:16
So far this clown has been unwilling to reveal their true motive for continually posting negative comments about DRX and its unlikely they will. I'd echo comments from others that recommend not provoking the troll who has nothing of value to contribute and continually demonstrates their narcissistic desire for attention. Filter/ bin ;-)
I doubt Drax would employ a someone as dumb as Effix. More likely that he or she is an Extinction Rebellion moron who doesn’t follow the science.
Price finished up today and they lead with the headline “Pounded Again” - you couldn’t make it up.
effix is an idiot just filter him out then you wont have to read his incessant nonsense.
I reckon EFFIX is an ex employee sacked due to his incompetence