Member Info for Deadly4U

I think I will wait and see if any shorts show up, yeh 20p seems like a consensus low

A well balanced view of the industry IMO and the struggles of adoption.

https://cen.acs.org/energy/energy-storage-/search-long-duration-energy-storage/103/i5

I mean if you read through his twitter it's actually pretty interesting. Dude obviously had some bad things happen healthwise and broke. A sad story

Lul

Anyone else a little concerned about this "Seatronics and J2 are owned by Acteon Group Operations (UK) Limited ("Acteon"), which is majority owned by One Equity Partners LLC and Buckthorn Partners LLP. The Acquisition will be funded by a £70m increase in the Group's revolving credit facility". This company was IPOed by Buckthorn, who now having fully exited at a great profit have just sold us this "£9M adjusted EBITDA" business for circa £63M, 7x adjusted ebitda for a business that is a glorified EPC. IDK seems a bit sus especially as Buckthorn handpicked the current board who signed off on the deal. Of course no mention of these conflicts of interest in the RNS or the analysts.

Re Cam sale, it only raised £100 M, as £100 M was already on the tangible book. So £100 M from that £200 M from the 2 years of Divs and potentially the next event is £100 M capital released from the optimisation of RWA assets

Exactly, what can the board do? The FCA announced that they are going to drop a bomb on us 10 months ago, they didn't say how big the bomb was going to be. The executive team have built us a nice little shelter (£400M), the courts have now confirmed that there is indeed a bomb being dropped, and it's probably nuclear... Now the shareholders know our little shelter isn't nuclear proof, so they can always take a plane, leaving half their money behind anytime (selling their shares). My hope is the government and supreme court tell the FCA to only drop a little bomb :)

Brokers are broke :) Age old question, why do they rob the banks? Because that's where all the money is! Even if you tried to clawback money from brokers the sums be would be so insignificant. The capital just sitting at the BOE doing nothing is just so tempting to steal :D

Lets be fair, the problem is not and has never been the consumer. If the government is offering free money we take it, regardless of morals. The real enemy here is the crazy regulators and vulture feeding lawyers that have to justify their existence at the end of the day. If it wasn't clear to you before that we live in a socialist state, it will be now

From the broker

RBC said that its initial estimate of the potential liability for CBG - in the event of a bad outcome in respect of premium finance - is around £250m, of which £100m has been included in its model.

The bank said total commission provisions now in its model are £420m, £320m of which are for motor and £100m for premium finance.

"Whilst CBG's CET1 can absorb this (CET1 trough 11.6%), assuming that the bank unwinds its motor/premium loan books and doesn't pay a dividend in FY25-26, our downside scenarios of circa £640m (motor £390m; premium £250m) suggest there could be a bleaker path," it said.

crazy world we live in

Obligatory form, https://www.fca.org.uk/about/complain-about-regulators/form

:)

New short appeared :) Also interesting academic article, https://academic.oup.com/book/36761/chapter/321870605, indicating the odds of winning an appeal to the supreme court from a business is about 50-50 given historic cases!

Yeah so you told me they originated 100,000 loans a year, therefore by your numbers that would mean an average loan of £20000, which is ridiculous as Close stated their average is 7000...

Absolutely correct, our figures don't disagree, from their latest presentation average car loan is £7k, therefore they loaned roughly 7000 x 100,000 = £700 M last year Therefore if you assume a maturity of 3.5 years and the run rate of growth is circa 15% then you get £1.95 Bn loan book. This is consistent with what I said :)

Interestingly 2.5% of £16 B is £400 M :)

"In 2023, the total amount of new lending for used cars in the UK is estimated to be £22.2 billion". Close has £2B currently in motor finance with duration of 4 years, so probs £600 M each year, so 2.5% market share currently

Lol Close doesn't have 20% market share...

Tbh I'm surprised it hasn't dropped below £2. The way the world is going I've priced in a RI when the supreme court upholds the judgment, current SP still hasn't materially priced that in. TBH I'm guessing that would be £1, bank equity in UK is crazy expensive, just look at wht happened recently in the states when banks need to raise emergency equity. People talking about £9 NAV have to remember that the bank cant fall below 10% CET1. So thats about £7 of that £9. Therefore finding buyers now without any certainty is becoming increasingly. Hence the sp will bounce around between £2-£3 until the judgement IMO. For my sins im in at 285 :)

Am not a lawyer but funny thing is I listened to the court of appeal hearings and I kind of agree with the substance of the judgement. The payments were secret and the consumers did not have all the facts. The bit I didn't agree with was the idea that the dealer and the bank had some kind of fiduciary responsibility. Sure with the new consumer protection coming in you can now argue that fact, but back 15 years ago... It's a crazy standard to make it retroactive and I still think despite the secrecy of the payments, they were not fundamentally malicious or predatory. Anyway the sp is a reflection of a decision nobody can possibly know by the supreme court, so shorters will have fun for a while, but they might get burnt if they dont cover before the judgement :)

Exactly the implications of having to babysit the consumer and explicitly disclose every discretionary commission affects multiple industries, funnily enough I wonder what implications this has for Martin Lewis and his site Moneysavingexpert!