RE: Dripping Tap29 Apr 2024 13:59
"could go under", of course anything can happen, but unless the auditors, management and accountants have all been lying or blissfully unaware the balance sheet is pretty rock solid now. It take a monumental increase in default rates to imperil Vanquis now, that or huge deposit flight risk. Both seem incredibly unlikely as Vanquis now has £750 M at BoE and Im sure BoE would lend against the secured loan portfolio if anything insane happened. Also very short duration book so no interest rate risk really. IMO they've just lost control of costs, if they deliver on the promise of going from 60% cost:income to 40% then easily see a rerate here, as thats potentially at least £50 M cost savings. Obviously near term catalyst is the resolution of the CMC problem, hopefully in the interim statement we can see more clarity about the cost impacts.