Member Info for Deadly4U

As a neutral when it comes to politics, I don't understand why people are attached to a political party regardless of incompetency? E.G. "As I've said before on here, God help us if the next government turns out to be Labour."
Is it like a football team? Surely we should not be waving red or blue flags, but the British Flag, as cringe as that sounds :D
Vote for the people not the party, maybe I'm just deluded but you can't have a stable society when people instantly fight someone they have never met simply for saying I support "X" party...

yeah this is where hedging comes into play with day ahead prices now being 40p per therm

I mean the definition of oversupply is lack of storage...

BBC article today about all of the LNG ships waiting off the coast of Portugal. Seems to back up the idea that gas oversupply in Europe is real
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63331709

There is currently a massive oversupply of gas in Europe as the weather has been milder than expected, storage is almost full up and many LNG ships are arriving as EU countries panic bought LNG in early June as the full scale implications of the war in Ukraine unfolded. Analysts are predicting that there is far more gas arriving in the next month than could be consumed or stored. Some analysts are even predicting Gas price going negative similarly to Crude Oil in March 2020.

Anyone think this possible and implications for HBR? Has HBR already forward sold most of it's gas anyway?

Taconic Capital short is a hedge, idk why Capital Fund Management short, maybe because macro is ****, biden releasing SPR, recession so demand destruction...

1. We could reopen those coal mines and produce coal cheaper than the biomass costs to import, geology made the coal uncompetitive before, coal now 10x price, simple maths..
2. If you believe, like I do, that the UK has crazy environmental maniacs in charge, then you should know that Canada is on a whole new level of crazy. They have insane energy reserves, and refuse to use them to lower internal energy prices to "save the environment". If you think Trudeau will protect you and your "offcuts of wood" then your very trusting. Canadian climate activists are paramilitary style and will probably chain themselves to the trees Drax wants to cut down lol

Really? If a company hedges and sells at a lower price to spot that's not a loss in your opinion??? LMAO people defending $7 Billion loss on hedging as the cost of doing business is pure bs. You have idiots constantly complaining the HBR is way undeforming the likes of BP and Shell, well duh! BP and Shell don't have to hedge their production and therefore don't lose out on BILLIONS OF $$$ like HBR. Anyway lets just ignore that fact and keep blaming shorters...

lol nobody mentioning the $7 Billion Derivatives loss on the balance sheet

LDI is really not a big deal, media went into hyperdrive to try and make it sound like 2008 again! Greedy bankers taking unlimited risk to profit from poor people kind of bs. LDI works perfectly well and only has problems when a crazy PM and chancellor announces unfunded spending rises along with tax cuts in a world where the bank of England is "aggressively" raising interest rates and signalled its about to start QT! You couldn't model such a scenario, and indeed UK bond yields moved faster than any time in history, including WW1, WW2, 08/09 and COVID.

Drax was specifically built next to coal mines that provided jobs and employment for the local area and now we are importing wood from Canada, shipping it across the Atlantic Ocean! Wood is a Middle Ages fuel, Coal has twice the energy density! The CO2 emitted by all of the inputs to the wood chips is equivalent to the CO2 from coal. It boggles the mind how the green agenda has made our country reliant on wood imports from Canada! What happens when Canada decides that it doesn't support the shipping of wood pellets to the UK for environmental reasons, oh the irony! Drax is an example of gross incompetence and the fallout from the Drax power station being shut down due to wood pellet supply issues would be catastrophic for UK energy supply. Don't say I didn't warn you...

Rebased Div still 4% at £15, which is below long term average for SSE but I think you can make the argument that SSE is materially a different company since the selling of the retail side of the business. The government reform of the energy market is actually a good thing for everyone involved, the ROC would have cost the Government a crazy amount of money this winter. CfD makes more sense for investment decisions, what doesn't help is the whole messaging of the reform. They need to guarantee high CfD prices for the next decade and stop dithering about. SSE debt has YtM of 7 years at 4% so not overly worried about this as the interest is fixed and they have set out proposals to sell 25% of transmission and distribution businesses. IMO only legitimate reason to worry is Government incompetence and that the wind stops blowing :D

lul, when the Government decides to stop fcking around and announces the windfall tax the sp will bounce

"I think that is the BBC told" yeah done with this BB, you believe what you like but the Drax statement is completely opaque and does not answer the main criticism, namely that shipping wood across the Atlantic and burning it is "green" and deserves £6 Billion of subsidies to make it viable. Whatever your view on the panorama and drax, you have to admit that without the subsidies the business model is not viable

Well the obvious answer is that you can't make the quantity of wood pellets that Drax need from waste residue. In the panorama it shows the insane quantities of pellets that you need to burn for just 2 hours of operation! A whole train load, there simply isn't enough sawdust and offcuts in the world to sustain the needs of all the biomass plants. I would respect drax a whole lot more if they just came out and said it like it is, they need to power the station all winter as the UK desperately needs as much power as possible. They don't have enough pellets from offcuts and sawdust so they took the practical step to make pellets from perfectly good trees. But of course they can't say this as that would provoke a huge storm of criticism from green fanatics and imperil their subsidies from UK Gov. So we all continue to play along to this grotesque lie of green energy. Its simply fanciful to imagine cutting down trees in canada, pelleting them, transferring them across the Atlantic to the uk, loading onto trains and burning in furnace to create electricity is "green".

lol I never said we should shut down drax! Did you actually watch the panorama? Drax specifically bid for plots of forest, cut the trees down, left the residue on the site to be burnt... Their simply doing what we did 1000 years ago, cutting down forests and saying that replanting the forest will be net zero is idiotic, you can't replant a viable forest, it never recovers

Clueless? It's not hard to understand, coal is a much better source of power than wood, its far more energy dense! There's a reason that the industrial revolution happened in this country! We have gone backwards because of luddites who are scared of Greta Thunberg, also obviously you have a vested interest on not seeing the literal forest for the trees as you are invested in this ****show of a share. I wouldn't be surprised if some environmental company takes Drax to court on the back of that documentary by the BBC.

Having just watched the BBC panorama programme, who on earth thought it was a good idea to stop burning coal and convert to wood pellets??? They are literally making climate change worse, destroying prime forest in Canada and emitting more CO2 than if they had just kept burning coal! £6 Billion of subsidies, literally lighting money on fire, whoever gave this the go ahead is ******ed

Absolutely I agree they have overpaid, but at the same time I'm so bullish on the CU price long term that I think the deal was still worth it.

South 32 deal was all Marc, seemed like a good deal and a continuation of Julian's legacy