Member Info for Deadly4U

"37% in share price in last 12 months"
Given the rapid rise in SP, why are they conducting a £1.5 Billion share buyback? The shares do not look undervalued and therefore I don't understand why they didn't just increase Div and invest more in company. Smacks of increasing SP artificially to boost execs bonuses.

Why would you buy the shares if you were going to sell them straight away if it went up? That's straight up day trading talk, 90% of day traders lose money btw... GL

lol fr?!? You denying climate change? SMH should have guessed BP share chat has cognitive dissidence over this issue...

Sorry, by climate ambitions I meant to try and reduce BP's impact on global warming and to help transition the company away from fossil fuels.

Reading an FT article mentioning that BP have spent the least money on renewables compared to major rivals, despite promoting it's green credentials the most in the last 20 years. Is it likely that a BP takeover of SSE could be on the cards as SSE would add considerable weight to BP's climate ambitions and are a relatively good fit for BP as both UK companies. Or am I delusional and this could never happen?

Is BofA using swaps to get exposure, rather than shares, because it's more tax efficient for them?

Robleo, I like your enthusiasm but DLG is not going to £3 anytime soon, like 2024 timescale I imagine. The insurance cycle is close to bottoming so DLG will be trying to grow market share, not share price appreciation, although in the long run both things go together. Most bullish outcome I could see is a slow recovery to £2.40 by end of year, Div maintained, and a push to £3 by end of 2023 as DLG starts to improve margins and combined ratio goes back to target.

Anything's possible! However IMO the balance sheet looks fine and DLG has made maintaining the dividend a core part of their mandate. So I may be wrong but I trust the board would not be so deceptive as to reiterate that the dividend was safe and then cut it in two weeks time. If they did that I would lose confidence in their leadership and look to exit my position. I still put a lot of stock into management when I invest in a stock so did a little due diligence on DLG's board and from my limited knowledge it looks pretty solid with loads of experience and business competency.

Of course they could declare that "the industry is in an emergency and DLG has never faced such a tough period in all of it' history, so given these circumstances the dividend will have to be cut" but I rate the chance of that pretty unlikely.

Yeah I'm not an accountant but I read through the summary of changing from IFRS 4 to IFRS 17 reporting and it seems like life insurers will have to extrapolate their income more conservatively. E.G. the actual business isn't changing but their income and profit will look different in balance sheet so will change conventional valuation metrics like P/E and P/B and ROE. Also AV, LGEN, PHNX all use different measures of discount model so when they all have to report using same model will give good idea of who is "swimming naked" so too speak!

Not buying LGEN until I see the impact of the new IFRS 17 accounting practices reflected in their balance sheet in 2023. IMO life insurers will get repriced when they have to all report their future liabilities using a consistent discount model, unlike in IFRS 4 when they could use any discount model they saw fit. So yes LGEN currently looks cheap by traditional value metrics, but come 2023 I expect these metrics to change drastically, although I think management will handle it quite well, I’m short whole life insurance sector. DYOR

Exactly the trading update reiterated the boards confidence in being able to maintain the dividend and therefore I honestly don't believe DLG will trade at these levels for long, given the risk reward on an 11% div in the current 10% inflationary world.

But isn't the UK General Insurance market very competitive and one merger would hardly reduce consumer choices?

Anyone think that this is likely given how much cash AV has and the sudden valuation drops in both DLG and ADM? Would it be a good fit?

"Dividend up to 125$ Million" I thought the dividend was going to be up to $200 Million, same as buyback number?

My biggest takeaway from the trading update was this line
"Due to conservative reserving during 2021, the Group's prior year reserve releases in the first half remain in line with expectations."
So looks like DLG has a pretty conservative reserve estimate and therefore prices in this current claims inflation into their reserves, a very important trait for an insurer to have!

Yeah DLG looks very tempting for Private Equity under the 220 mark IMO.

The consensus seems to be that DLG will suffer some margin compression in the coming quarters, but nothing on the scale of SBRE and that the Dividend will not be cut as DLG easily have the capital to pay it and still maintain a decent solvency ratio

Cheer up Lucky, HBR might be promoted to FTSE100 in September if everything goes to plan!

It seems being put on IGNORE by Lucky is a right of passage for sage investors in HBR msg board!

lol I didn't start the thread to be negative on HBR! I'm extremely bullish HBR, think it's currently one of the most mispriced stocks I can ever remember seeing! I just wanted to give a heads up that HBR will be a FTSE250 company on Monday :D