Member Info for TheSynnerMan

Yes, so it wouldn't have precluded someone making a higher offer. 4% discount to NAV is not unreasonable.

Bluefields offer was at a 9% discount to NAV and will probably go through.

Both of these imply the share price should be up in the 80s or 90s and if we were to get an offer, it should at least be close to a pound

Yes, so it wouldn't have precluded someone making a higher offer. 4% discount to NAV is not unreasonable.

Bluefields offer was at a 9% discount to NAV and will probably go through.

Both of these imply the share price should be up in the 80s or 90s and if we were to get an offer, it should at least be close to a pound

Count me in!

It's worth noting that the analysis doesn't include the recent sale which would have reduced TRIG's debt and gearing

I suggest registering to get the full report, but here's some more from the Kepler analysis:

Analyst's View

Over the last few years, it has been very easy to get overwhelmed by all the detail when it comes to renewable energy infrastructure generally and TRIG specifically. And to focus on the big macro factor, interest rates, that has been the main influence on share prices, together with shifts in regulatory policy, the ‘Trump’ factor and power prices. But behind all of that, we find it very interesting that, at a point in time when global energy supply chains have just undergone perhaps one of the largest shocks in history, TRIG, which of course sells energy, is trading at a level where its dividend yield is at the widest spread over UK government bonds that it has been since its IPO. While we follow the short-term logic of investors taking a cautious stance on markets, the irony is striking. There will be, and already is, plenty of rhetoric about how the UK must do more to extract its own gas and oil resources, and whether that’s practical or not it doesn’t change the fact that renewables are not a small side hustle for the UK and other European countries, but an integral part of the energy mix.

TRIG’s big advantage in all of this is its diversification, scale and capacity to become self-sustaining. With wide discounts, raising fresh equity to acquire new operational assets is currently off the agenda, and development and construction have become an important part of the mix. TRIG has the scale to maintain dividend cover while allocating capital to generate higher returns from reinvestment and construction. The 29% discount therefore looks to us to be a remarkable opportunity.

Bull

- True utility-scale diversified portfolio of assets

- Development and construction pipeline could generate higher returns and extend the portfolio life

- Wide discount and yield spread over government bonds

Bear

- TRIG uses gearing, which can amplify losses as well as gains, albeit gearing is lower than average for the sector

- A high proportion of fixed revenues, with over 55% inflation-linked, mean dividend growth may be lower than inflation

- Political risk over energy policy has moved a notch higher in the UK but TRIG’s country diversification helps mitigate this

Saw quite a good article yesterday on the Bluefields deal and the fact that the proposed purchase by Drax puts a floor on renewable infrastructure of £0.98 million per megawatt of capacity (N.B. I think this valuation assumes no value for pipeline capacity etc).

On that basis, I think the TRIG valuation should be closer to £1.10. This is a buy for me.

And a follow up question... if not TRIG, what other Renewable energy funds do you believe are better value atm?

I may be late to the party, but I was interested in people's views on this fund.

My view is that these funds are undervalued (significant discount to NAV). The news about Drax purchasing Bluefields might breathe some life into the likes of TRIG too. The reasons I'm looking at it are:

- Yield is good is buying in at this level;

- Share buyback is creating a floor

- There is the potential for a re-rating through M&A activity (directly or indirectly).

- Higher power prices in early 2026 will help this year at least, but if they can get a long-term PPA away too, that helps their debt position

- Potential for even more extreme power prices (depending on what happens in Iran)

- Maybe more luck than judgment, but it might also be a decent opportunity to dispose of some assets that they talked about in their Capital Markets Day.

Drax Group Chief Executive Officer, Will Gardiner, said: "Flexible Generation technologies like battery storage will support a secure, affordable and clean energy system for British homes and businesses. Our first BESS tolling agreement is an important step in our ambition for a gigawatt scale pipeline of battery storage opportunities, alongside our recent acquisitions of Flexitricity and three battery storage developments."

They're going hard on battery storage and asset optimisation. Plenty of capacity and capability to offer short term Grid support from batteries placed strategically around the country.

This aged well!

Do some simple research.

The IPCC says we need Biomass to reach net zero.

Why would you not generate electricity from sawmill residues and thinnings from well managed forests?

Don’t believe what Jillian Ambrose writes. She just regurgitates the same old sh*te.

Always quoting the ‘think tank’ Ember. People should be asking who the f**k they are and who funds them?

Im sure Effix will be back on here again claiming he shorted at the market high. If he had truly done that when he originally said at sub £3, his bank would be knocking on the door to repossess his 1-bed maisonette.

I think in reality hes a crusty xtinction rebellion nutcase who doesnt understand that the world needs electric produced from forest waste and trees that regrow.

Https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/power-plant-operator-drax-launch-carbon-removal-business-2024-01-25/

British power plant operator Drax (DRX.L), opens new tab plans to establish an independent business focused on becoming the global leader in delivering large-scale and high-integrity carbon removal.

The new entity will be launched this year and be operationally separate within the Drax Group and headquartered in Houston in the United States, Drax said.

It will be led by Laurie Fitzmaurice, a senior energy infrastructure expert with nearly 30 years of experience in business development, most recently for Amazon Web Services.

"The creation of this business brings to life years of hard work by many outstanding people across our group and marks another step in Drax’s journey to enable a zero-carbon, lower-cost energy future," said Drax Group CEO Will Gardiner.

"Our recent success is grounded in providing secure, renewable energy and our future is focused on playing a critical role in tackling climate change through the generation of secure, renewable power and the large-scale removal of carbon dioxide."

Britain last year laid out plans to boost energy security and independence by investing in efforts to move towards cleaner, more affordable energy sources, including projects to capture and store carbon dioxide.

Last week Drax said the government had approved its planning application to convert two biomass units at its Drax plant to use carbon removal technology known as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS).

Spot on.

I remember the EDF CEO saying in 2007 that we'd all be eating our Christmas Turkeys cooked with Nuclear Power in Dec 2017.

7 years later, we're still waiting and it's likely to be 7 more (if we're lucky).

Biomass = security, better value than nuclear and more reliable than wind and solar. On top of that you have the recent news from the Gov about capturing carbon too.

...Assuming he's not living in a caravan already:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1037736/drax-to-win-approval-for-net-zero-carbon-capture-plan-report-1037736.html

effix… you said you shorted it at £2, then again at £3. you are an absolute clown. you’re blatantly just a skint, crusty student member of some pointless organisation like extinction rebellion that doesn’t even understand why we need working forests and biomass.

it’s pretty ******* obvious what the benefits are of biomass are… nao report seems a bit pointless. probably trying to justify their jobs.

In English please!

Note the desperation in Aether’s post as he shouts IN CAPITAL LETTERS!

Personally, I’m assuming we’ll be getting news next week and some buyers have pieced the puzzle together.

I presume the rise is from the strong suspicion we’re on a platform trial. Nothing confirmed that it relates to SNG yet as far as I can see, but some big trials have been publishing info recently.

And SNG would fit perfectly on them.

Remember how long the Activ trial took to on board the drugs. Remember how close SNG came to statistical significance.

It’s been a hard year and plenty have been all too ready to bash people down for believing that this drug still has a great deal of potential. Hopefully whatever news is coming will be the start of a long road to recovery.