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Results are very solid and the investment in aberdeen metals is small but with the potential to deliver value if exploration is positive. Not complaining for now
Bailed last lot at 183 looking for a retrace …. Starting a new Copper mine from scratch can take years … so CAML needs to move quickly in my view … just about broken even over the year so not great but clawed back a 20% drop.
Glad I exited Friday, the divi cut is fine but 3m in Aberdeen, an expo money pit. Really. I guess at least it’s only 3m!
Usual caveats
Trek
CNBC were very briefly talking about the looming copper shortage.
At the April Ex div the share price was £2.07. the carried on falling. I can see this rising up to the next div and carrying on rising instead of dropping back.
GLA LTH
Looking good now copper at $4.06
Copper over $4 now.
Bloomberg tv reporting China restrictions on copper could create a huge spike.
Last week’s article
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/metals-copper-zinc-hit-5-week-highs-on-china-trade-data-smelter-cut
Absolutely flying
Copper price is flying today, hopefully caml can catch up.
Volumes were light today .... did anyone notice the £100K sell yesterday at 154? Looked like a fat finger error to me ... reckon someone was obliged to buy back.
Generally speaking the UK markets look highly unstable .... in out in out and shake it all about .... my kind of market.
Slight improvement in global economic sentiment --> small increase in metal prices --> small increase in CAML share price. Could easily reverse again, but let's hope for the best. Still holding for the medium to long term, so don't care much about the share price, except in so far as it reflects metal prices and profits.
I'm with boreddesigner on this one, last weeks downturn seemed a bit random and unjustified imo so I am viewing today as a correction. I personally won't be letting any of my shares go until after the end of year results in less than 3 weeks time. Hopefully we will be back at the 170's in a week or two. GLA
Well done, little premature I recon. I'm looking for 170's by the end of the month, fingers crossed
Nice suprise today ... taken some off the table .... looking for 150s again ... but no problem if not.
GLA
Yes I have invested at these levels with the same belief that the share price will recover. In FY2022 there was the impairment of non-current assets of about -55 million USD, this resulted in the profit after tax being lower (33.8 M USD for FY22 compared to 84.2 M USD in FY21). However, hopefully when the end of year financials are released (I think the end of this month) it will be stronger than last year.
I also am hoping for a strong copper performance this year:))
GLA!
The market is forward looking but it's worth pointing out CAML comfortably achieved their 2023 guidance and ended the year with a cash position marginally below where it sat a year after (post dividends of more than $20m).
Copper production guidance - 13,000 to 14,000 tonnes vs actual 13,816 tonnes
Zinc production guidance - 19,000 to 21,000 tonnes vs actual 20,338 tonnes
Lead production guidance - 27,000 to 29,000 tonnes vs actual 27,794 tonnes
Guidance for 2024 has been set at the same level as 2023 with gross margins having only reduced by 5-10% yet the share price is down almost 45% in the past 12 months! All debts cleared in the prior year, reduced financing costs therefore and now their sizeable cash pile is benefitting from higher interest rates. Even assuming a 25% cut in the total FY dividend from 20p to 15p CAML are still yielding 10% and with the USD set to weaken in the second half that should provide relief for base metal commodities.
This time last year CAML's 3 metals per tonne totalled $14,000. Today it's $13,000, so margins are under attack. There will be another hefty pay rise this year, which puts the dividend under the spotlight. They paid well over the 30-50% FCF for the interim dividend and they have cash in the bank, with most of the SASA capex paid out, but if the company stick to the 30-50% dividend payout, a cut is on the way.
The difficulty with CAML is a lacking in growth with 15 years or so of life left out of current assets as far as I can gather. Too much time between the takeover and Sasa and new acquisitions, where exploration should have started much earlier - but my guess is that the bet was to match Sasa with another deal over the past 5 years. Not happened and now two such deals are needed to replace existing production going forwards.
On the plus side, in 10 years CAML could have $360 Million in the bank having returned 200p to shareholders with 5 years or so to decommission and sell off machinery .... as well as having some returns from solar power to the locals.
So the share seems more like a bond is it stands now.
Anyone disagree?
On the plus side, however, cash rich and getting richer. Let's be conservative with 15p divi and 15p stored in the bank each year - makes 30p so current holders will have value equating to the current share price in a tad over 5 years from now in terms of divis and cash stored in the bank assuming current trend continues ...
The cure for low commodity prices is low commodity prices.
You just need to have a well managed business with lower costs and access than your competitors
GLA
Here we go again, not enough copper how many times have we heard this?
Copper stockpiles are looking decidedly unhealthy after top producer Codelco reported an 8 per cent drop in production for 2023, at 1.4mn tonnes. The Chilean state miner is closely watched by metals traders because of its significant output. This year’s production will remain weak as well, making an uptick in the red metal’s price more likely – UBS analysts said yesterday that consensus expectations had just shifted from surplus to deficit and this would likely continue.
“In our view, the probability of a strong rebound in mine supply in 2025 is low and if the market moves into deficit in 2H24, we think tightness is likely to persist for an extended period,” the UBS analysts added. Copper has dropped from $8,500 (£6,724) a tonne at the start of February to $8,100 a tonne this week, as per the London Metal Exchange
Following copper lower, lot copper miners share prices under pressure. Hope not going c copper falling heavily over coming months, China biggest consumer economy in trouble.
I was surprised also.
Caught me off guard would have bought a few more if I had spotted the price action before close.
according to "investing" website there was a large transaction about 10:30 today 343K shares traded in a 5min window.
From the price graph it was all downhill from then onwards...
There is a new company video if anyone interested:
https://www.centralasiametals.com/media/
Still a holder here. Watching 150p zone though I am a bit surprised its still at these levels. Gla
Thx trek just about to buy some again