Ryan Mee, CEO of Fulcrum Metals, reviews FY23 and progress on the Gold Tailings Hub in Canada. Watch the video here.
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Yes feel coppers now letting go could be on prolonged bull run now, on better outlook 4 ward growth green energy ect,
Funds less negative as there isn't as much Cu about as they thought personally I beginning to think they dream up these narratives as they go along as it almost changes weekly from gluts to deficits.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/funds-less-negative-copper-supply-landscape-shifts-andy-home-2023-12-19/
No worries Caan - Basically there's someone buying for a $1 if you have the certificates. Although it's been nearly 2 years now so if you can wait it out I reckon those shares are worth at least $4+ on any solution which for a company of that size there will have to be at some point. What do you think?
Lawstudent95
Sorry off topic did you manage to sell any evr shares?
HANOI/BEIJING Dec 15 (Reuters) - Fees to process copper concentrate in the Chinese spot market have fallen by a quarter in less than three months to stand below $70 a metric ton on Friday, fanned by worries over tight supply.
The spot copper concentrate treatment charges (TC) in China, as assessed by information provider Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), hit $69.48 a ton, down 25% from $93.23 a ton on Sept. 28.
Such treatment charges, one of the main sources of income for smelters, fall when less copper concentrate is available, and vice versa.
"The expected shortage of copper concentrate may lead to a rapid decline in spot processing fees," SMM said in a note.
Chinese smelters might be unable to buy enough copper concentrate, with some potentially experiencing passive production cuts due to insufficient operating rates, it added.
SMM flipped its copper concentrate market balance forecast to a deficit of 200,000 tons to 300,000 tons for 2024, from a previous projection of a surplus of 70,000 tons.
Consultancy CRU Group also switched its forecast for 2024 to a deficit of 174,000 tons, from a previous 260,000-ton surplus projection.
Supply of copper concentrate next year turned tight after Panama's president ordered the closure of First Quantum's FM.TO Cobre mine. Miner Anglo American AAL.L also cuts its production guidance by 20% for 2024 and by 18% for 2025.
"Panama disruption is the main driver of the fees falling, right at the time Chinese smelters are stockpiling for the new year," said a source at a Chinese smelter.
However, trading volume on the spot concentrate market was tepid, as smelters were reluctant to accept lower fees and traders sought to hold back stocks or offer lower fees, accentuating supply tightness, another smelter source said.
CRU halved its output forecast for Cobre Panama mine to 50,000 tons in the fourth quarter of 2023, from 102,000 tons. The mine's output will drop to zero in the first quarter of 2024, it said, adding that more than half usually goes to China.
The disruption in Panama was a key reason behind the drop in the annual TC benchmark for 2024 to $80 a ton, with smelters accepting the first fee drop in three years on fear of supply tightness.
China's biggest copper smelter, Jiangxi Copper 60362.SS, saw increasing challenges ahead for the country's smelters in securing copper concentrate, a company official said last month.
Good pop today to 177p but still way undervalued imho.
Good article here by Avi Gilbert;
https://uk.investing.com/analysis/time-for-copper-to-shine-the-case-for-southern-copper-and-freeportmcmoran-200596075
As the developing nations of the world endeavor to replace fossil fuels with renewables, the demand for copper is expected to increase dramatically over the next decade. But with economic stagnation in China, and concerns of an economic slowdown in much of Europe and possibly the US, copper prices have become as dull as an old penny. The price of the red metal has fallen from $4.70 per pound in March 2022 to roughly $3.70 today - a decline of about 20%.
From a fundamental perspective, there's an expected shortfall in copper supply that's likely to put significant upward pressure on prices. But soft pricing may persist for several months as production is expected to outstrip demand through the end of 2023 and 1Q2024 (Source: International Copper Study Group). From there, several industry analysts are anticipating a supply squeeze. For example, Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) foresees a supply shortfall that will drive the price of copper to $4.50 per pound by late 2024, and to more than $6.80 per pound in 2025.
Concurring with this perspective, Max Layton, the Managing Director of Commodity Research at Citi said:
"He believes now is an ideal time for investors to buy as the price of copper is still muted on global recession concerns. The red metal has declined in price by approximately 26% from its all-time high of nearly $5.00, set in October 2021. According to Layton, copper could top out at $6.80 per pound by 2025, a jump that would "make oil's 2008 bull run look like child's play."
FED and free money. this is far less and less now adays about picking the perfect company but folling what the fed does and when it prints money.
Copper absolutely flying. 3.90 now could break 4 as well
All down to the FEDs dovish tone yesterday.
This is finally breaking out again! Up we go
Copper inventories are going to be stretched very soon, so I expect the copper price to rise. Great time to hold CAML at a very low price with dividends paid regularly 👍
I just discovered the Sprott Copper Miners ETF:
https://www.hanetf.com/product/55/fund/sprott-copper-miners-esg-screened-ucits-etf-acc
It has 2% of its value in CAML.
Chilean state-run copper miner Codelco saw production fall 5.7% year-on-year in October to 128,000 metric tons, the Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) said on Tuesday.
Your guess is as good as mine Rio, Glencoe, ATYM, farther afield Capstone Copper and Lundin Mining which is Caml like but bigger, the latter two are both Canada listed.
When I look at the charts Cu is holding up well over a 5 year period, Zn is flat and lead is up albeit marginally.
With Caml I like they have cash plus at the end of a capex cycle to cut and paste mining so happy to wait and see what happens.
Hi Raxfactor
Many thanks for the article but where do I invest? Am out of CAML for now and see PXC, AAL and BRWM as much better value
All opinions welcome
Nice read...
Goehring and Rozencwajg relook at copper inventories and suggest it is not signalling a recession, and for those investors who moved out of copper now might be an opportunity to reconsider re-entering.
https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/copper-inventory
" CAML is currently paying an 11% div"
Mb. That assumes final is the same as interim, which the co divi history tells you is not guaranteed. 2022's high metals prices fell way in 2023, so H1 FCF was halved to $24m, barely enuff to cover the 2022 final divi of 10p.
Mb the divi holds up, but mb it doesn't. Don't take that 11% for granted.
JTS13.
I believe that the global location of this company is its biggest negative.
I have repeatedly read in the past how the company is positioning itself to be of less interest to Russia and its Oligarchs.
At these valuations CAML is currently paying an 11% div so I am expecting to wee this SP rise into Xmas and Spring when the first div of the year is paid.
Copper bottomed out in Jul 2022 and is up over 20% since then. Its been in an upward consolidation pattern since. Whereas CAML, which was still over 2quid at that time, enjoyed a short rise to almost 3 GBP but has only continued to drop since. Yes, there has been some II selling, but the price drops seem so massively underdone. Zero rise when copper goes up, but consistent drops when it goes down. A well run company but terrible stock... perhaps the team should just reinvest their earnings into some random tech with no potential. IIs would probably rate this at 50FPE as a diversified tech play. Markets are a joke some times
Constructions seams to be picking up in the UK so the use of copper electrical cable will be back in demand.
Hopefully the demand for copper will be rising now.
Ah, US inflation data is positive.