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Yes we are having good performance with copper (and zinc and lead). Good to see copper over 3.9 USD / lb again. I am looking forward to 4.0 or over! The share price hasn't been moving with the commodity the last few days, so hopefully it will catch up before the end of the week.
Undervalued here imo
Hi Silver,
PXC May have its day but one should be averse to hubris and change one’s views with the data.
A mantra that’s kept me in the game especially over hold and hug!
Once PXC settles it’s Riverfort bridge then it’s a buy imo and then a sell on bond finance. Then a buy again on the inevitable pullback. That’s how I read it.
And talking of data, holdings RNS here, CFD from FIL. Sensible imo. Likely a short position to cover their holdings. Note the % per holding is the same at the bottom of the RNS.
Even though it’s below a decalarable amount as a CFD it’s smoke and mirrors any ways! So you won’t seen it on short tracker.
That could explain the recent window of opportunity.
It’s small beer in the scheme of things, not like we have an accompanying spreedex Hokey Cokey RNS!
I have the bottom at 156. Don’t mean it’s right but makes 162, well anything below 170 a buy imo as impossible to catch the knife spot on!
Usual caveats
Trek
Trek i agree much better promise than PXC lol !
Adding in here gradually as I can sub 170 is crazy cheap imo!
I don’t expect a t/o but they are spending a lot on expo so something could come of that if not I would prefer a special divi and hand cash back rather than a BB.
Usual caveats
Trek
CAML already yield more than 10%. I'd much rather they entertained a buy-back with the share price currently on it's knees. Improves earnings, shows the market the board is serious about generating shareholder returns and there is always the option of selling these shares at a premium to a prospective fund when market conditions / trading improve.
Worried we will wake up one morning to a low ball takeover. UK resource and commodity sector looks very attractive right now.
Big money is big for a reason, they manage risk exceptionally well and know what they are doing!
Excellent divi payer, copper supply shortage coming, and in a highly prospective location.
Mondex yes I am a long term holder and will add more for sure bargain basement atm
FIL just doubled their stake to over 10%
You're all missing one other critical factor CAML main operation is in Kazakhstan, an extremely sought after and prospective jurisdiction for mining. Kaz has gigantic untapped mineral wealth and we couldn't be in a better place to find a tier 1.
Also gives me comfort knowing the BoD are very active in finding us another asset. Its not if but when will we get another asset in Kaz.
P.S. I just checked the last half-yearly report (30 June 2023), and I see that the cash balance was DOWN from 6 months earlier, from $60m to $50m. That was partly due to one-off costs, but I think it was mostly due to lower metal prices. So I suppose my thesis is dependent on metal prices recovering.
Bear in mind that CAML is debt-free and building a cash pile of surplus profits to spend on buying or developing a new project. If they don't find anything to invest that cash in, they could instead pay it out to shareholders as extra dividends. So, either we get a new project that prolongs the life of the company, or we get extra dividends. The question is whether those extra dividends would be adequate compensation for the lack of longer term dividends after the 2 current projects end. When I bought into CAML I decided the answer was probably yes, though of course it depends on profits continuing at a reasonable level until then.
In short, you need to take into account the surplus profits that are not being paid out in current dividends.
To me, the two biggest risks to the investment are (1) the geopolitical risks associated with Kazakhstan, and (2) a prolonged global recession supressing the price of industrial metals.
I guess it’s the risk factor you present against them successfully finding a new deposit and mine? they have sometime, clearly focusing in country alongside probably some other global locations. trying to find something in kaz as got a licence signed. if they find no mine price drops, if they find one goes up!!
This is clearly a well-managed company. CAML is profitable, debt free and provides a 10%+ dividend yield, assuming the final dividend is maintained in the coming months. Year 2023 was relatively poor, but this can be explained away by weak commodity prices and cost inflation in Kazakhstan & North Macedonia (amongst other things).
However, I won't be investing for one fundamental reason - the copper runs out in 2034 (or possibly earlier at current production rates). CAML is crying out for an exploration find or two and/or some M&A activity. Can management deliver on this?
Stronger copper/zinc/lead prices (if they materialise) might provide a short to medium term fix but this doesn't solve the longer term problem (zinc/lead reserves also forecast to run out in 2039).
And I have reservations about the sustainability of dividends in the £0.18-£0.20 per annum range. A dividend cut would drive the share price much lower.
Am I missing something?
Vsa morning miner gave Caml a rousing review today.
https://soundcloud.com/user-596578261/5mmm-110124-jan-11-2024-001-riverside?utm_source=clipboard&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=social_sharing
HOPE 2 SEE COPPER AT HIGHER LEVELS SOON.
Excellent update, no surprises all segments ticking along nicely, with the all recent capex projects either completed or entering the end stage, good to see cash heading north again at $57m after the drop recorded in the last update.
Good to see CAML up the exploration efforts .... possibilities of a new discovery will make shorts nervous .... GLA.
Net cash vs $50.6m at June end (slightly off $64m consensus).
Boring, yet highly efficient! Sp is too low on this bad boy, they always deliver! Look forward to the next divi, but should hopefully rise towards £2 in the mean time!
Yep. Steady as she goes.
Looks like one of those borring companies, which simply delivers everytime. In my opinion its an easy target. Overall good results again. Lets see what next couple weeks bring here. Gla
Berenberg cuts Central Asia Metals price target to 220 (240) pence - 'buy'
I was really hoping that copper would hit 4 USD/Lb. Hopefully we will see this shortly in the new year. Happy to be in CAML and looking forward for the trading update soon!
Disapointing pull back asume lot of it on pull back copper