Member Info for JTS13

It's not necessarily cancelling, but changing future revenue levels. CPS removals hit big the other month. UKW is one of my larger holdings, and ambiguity over government policies (esp possibilties of a Reform government in a few years time) are one of the biggest headwinds

PHP and THRL look more questionable than SOHO to me, re: balance sheet risk if rates rise.

RESI is probs the most attractive fundamentally for me. Shielded by extremely low debt rates that dont mature till 2040s. However, they're winding down... potentially still feasible for a temporary rebalancing over the expected volatile period I suppose

Indeed. My concern is that this will sell off as large holders seek to cover other losses

Markets are not what they used to be. Consumables, precious metals, and energy/utilities were always the safe bets. But not now. Cost if living weighs on consumables. Gold n silver are acting like risk assets. Energys' out of wacky due to Iran, with renewable and utilities being attacked by our own government.

What is safe these says?

Am expecting an uptick in inflation during H2 of this year and thinking of rebalancing the portfolio beforehand. REITS are often touted as being a hedge against inflation. However, from my experience, Soho and others have been too responsive to interest rate counter moves, and the value in the underlying asset / reliability of inflation-linked earnings hasn't been sufficient to prevent share price declines (see 2021-23)

What are others' thoughts here?

BBC article relating to what sparhawk just posted. Sounds like effort to push risk without reward on to renewables. Anyone any idea?

BBC News - Government to propose electricity price changes in clean power push

bbc co.uk/news/articles/c79jg43vd8no

TBH, given the ~20% reduction to NAV, largely interpreted as due to issues in forward forecasts as is, I am rather surprised that the 3-5p knock to NAV has had a near 6p impact to SP.

To think this had bounced to 106 just two days ago

Bought most of mine in Sep after what appeared to be a potential double bottom. Down >10% since, for what was envisaged to be a nice divi.

What is crazy is that this is lower than the lowest low during the Covid sell off! I understand negative sentiment due to uncertainty around energy policy and potential relaxing of subsidies, but this seems over sold.

How much to the subsidies contribute towards NAV / earnings?

The whopping 0.11p of it

The technical view doesn't look great, especially if viewed that there is ongoing weakness during a period of significant buy backs that are already well on the way through its programme.

I'm not too phased on the Reform / US issues at the moment as these seem to have been largely priced in, or sufficiently distant to allow sentiment to change again.

Selling assets at NAV is also welcome

Provided revenue generation is maintained, then would like to see gap with NAV reduced at some point. However, having had exposure to BESS plays via GRID and GORE, know only too well that things can deteriorate much further

Thanks Will

A wide range of maturities over the next decade. Could have been worse. Wondering what else is tying this [whole sector] down. Divi is looking attractive, and with good discount to NAV, thinking of adding. Not sure what's being missed though, or just sector concerns with upcoming budget perhaps

Anyone know what the interest rates on the debt here are?

Can see mentions of various facilities, but not the specific rates or maturity dates

Am watching this from sidelines as would like a UK play. Kids accounts can't invest in overseas treasuries, so this is only option for BTC exposure in a tax free setting that I can see

At the same time, mNAV is around £210mill. I don't understand why the current valuation is so high, other than hope of future ftse listing. Dilution seems the only path, no?

Don't like the 200k BTC target. Far too aggressive

When many overseas treasuries are around mNAV, often at a discount, or have significant mining ops behind them, why here? Other than being the only British option?

What're expectations regarding dividend policy when payouts can resume after this refinancing is confirmed?

Edison report states "reinstate fully covered dividend payments from Q325". I am interpreting full to be per historical norm. However, you could be right in that it is an incremental return according to what may be fully covered at the time.

Anyone any clearer on this?

~8p dividend would see SP here quickly go north of a pound if sustainable. 9 month ain't too long to wait for such a return in my mind

On thr technical level, I see 1910 as next point of interest, with a minor consolidation expected around 1800.

Generally speaking however, PSN traditionally pays out higher dividends during bulls and with lower interest rates on the way, I'm expecting a new growth cycle in the coming years. Looking for £25s within 2 years "if" BOE rates reduce to below 3.5% by end of 25.

Don't have a lot in here, but I'm long (minimum of 2 years OR a £25 exit)

Hi Gavster, apologies, don't read up here very often. As at the time of my initial post, a retracement to support is pretty standard. That was around 57p (a moving target as shareprice moves, but we subsequently hit that and bounced up in early August). The bounce was representative of what we'd expect. Similarly, death crosses are pretty normal following a 100% rise in a short space of time. Combined with my focus on the long term (ie looking at weekly and starting context of rising from the lows) the upward trajectry looked fine. All be it insufficient to return to 75p and challenge the highs as mentioned.

We have since had negative news, and markets as a whole have dropped. Very difficult to say what will happen now. Further downtrend to high 40s is open. Equally, some positive news could help stem the selling. My horizon on this is around 18 months, with an average buy around 50p. So personal context matters to sentiment too

Perfect bounce of that weekly MA20 as mentioned (just 0.1p off). So even with the black Monday, we still maintained bullish technicals. Good stuff

Politics aside... it has been announced that successful migrants are to be put into social housing within the year (around 35k on thr backlog if I recall right). Anyone ahoughts on this or other wider gov policy impact on SOHO?

The 75p mark brought technical resistances at the 200 day and 50 week MAs. Given recent increase, a drop down to as low as 57p is still within play. This is all healthy though, as will support consolidation and next uplift. There is a gap around 75-85p, but the fundamentals don't quite bring the firepower to justify filling this yet IMO.

Yes, it's disappointing to see gains seem to disappear, but I'm viewing this as a technical retrace, nothing more...but, that said, it's quite possible that there has been some BESS specific news that I've not seen. However, sector doesn't appear to suggest this

Well, if you look at SP performance between October and February, there does appear to be a strong relationship with interest rates (shown via bonds). Although there will be other factors too.

I have dipped in today, but won't get too much exposure here. I think the next 12-24 months will present many opportunities for UK stocks/bonds. The potential here looks good, but remain a bit concerned by dividend cover and general illiquidity that comes with all REITS

All the best folks

With interest rates looking to start coming down and labour likely favouring housebuilding & social housing, this appears very well positioned (note: I'm not in yet).

A concern for me is that the dividend isn't protected by earnings, but seems to be secured by asset sales. This may make sense given that assets appear significantly undervalued, but even if the rental payments increased to almost full payment, revenues and earnings don't seem likely to be in a healthy (e.g. >1.3 cover) position.

I wonder if SP is pricing in a future reduction in dividends? Mind u, even if slashed, it'd still be reasonable.

My main attraction though is potential for growth following interest rate reductions. Assuming we go to 3.5% in 2 years from now, a 30% return on any long term bond is pretty much certain. How correlated is this to interest rates? Its crash since 2021 suggests heavily so, but anyone know the math?